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Hurricane Beatriz slams into Mexico; heavy rains, tornadoes hit the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:34 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011

Hurricane Beatriz plowed into the Pacific coast of Mexico near La Fortuna this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, bringing very heavy rains and mudslides to a 200-mile stretch of coast. Acapulco reported 5.20" of rain yesterday, and one injury due to a falling free. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards 25 miles from the center of Beatriz, and these winds are likely to cause moderate damage along a 200-mile stretch of the Mexican coast today as the storm moves northwestwards towards Cabo Corrientes. However, the primary threat from the storm will be heavy rain, and the expected rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause very dangerous flooding and mudslides today and Wednesday morning. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz weakened significantly over the past few hours, once the eye moved over land. The mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico will continue to tear up the storm today, and Beatriz will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it moves back out to sea on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Beatriz over the Pacific coast of Mexico taken at 9:30am EDT June 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tornadoes, heavy rain slam the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms rumbled through a wide section of the Midwest yesterday, generating numerous tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. The storm also brought heavy snow to the mountains of Colorado above 9,500 feet, an unusual occurrence for so late in June. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 43 preliminary tornado reports yesterday in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and North Dakota. The tornadoes mostly avoided populated areas, and only sporadic damage was reported. Perhaps the most significant impact of the storm was the large area of 1 - 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today, and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards. However, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing only their "Slight Risk" forecast for severe weather for both days.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of a supercell thunderstorm with a classic hook echo. The storm spawned a tornado that hit Elm Creek, Nebraska yesterday. The tornado ripped the roofs off of several houses and tore down power lines.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris (enghorn)
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Eyeee; gona be a choppy ride "2011 Summer Storm Slam"


Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
If you are in Michigan watch out, PWAT's are well above normal between 1.6 and 1.8 inches ahead of those storms and dewpoints in the low 70's, this will lead to very high rainfall rates for that far north, thunderstorm cores could contain 2 to 3 inch per hour rain rates, which will easily cause flooding because the ground is not designed for tropical rainfall up there.


Are they at risk for severe weather ie hail tornados
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
If you are in Michigan watch out, PWAT's are well above normal between 1.6 and 1.8 inches ahead of those storms and dewpoints in the low 70's, this will lead to very high rainfall rates for that far north, thunderstorm cores could contain 2 to 3 inch per hour rain rates, which will easily cause flooding because the ground is not designed for tropical rainfall up there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Shary?

Danny had some interaction with an upper level trough during his creation (but was a tropical wave).

Grace in 2009 of course was none of those three, coming from an extratropical cyclone or some sort (Laura in 2008 was also in this category, I think).


I think Shary was the result of a disturbance interacting with an ULL, I'm just basing that off pure memory.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Rmadillo:
Torgen- do your homework before buying the rain barrel. Placement and capture rate make the difference between success and a waste of money. Those things ain't cheap.


I have a spot on the side of the house where the roof and the garage's roof make a funnel. I had to had rocks the size of throw pillows at the "impact point" to keep from the stream digging a cavern in the yard during rainy season. The hard part would be dredging the roof shingle "gravel" out of the bottom of the barrel.

A neighbor told me Sam's Club had rain barrels for $40, which is less than half the price I saw last year, but no idea how big they are.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
It never ceases to amaze me on how fast Grace developed. This is the 8:00 PM EDT TWO on October 4, 2009. What would become Grace was only at Less than 30%. In a special TWO at 9:05 PM EDT on October 4, it was at Higher than 50%. Then at the 11 PM AST advisory, Grace was at 65 mph.





Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Lotsa stuff changing aloft near term and with waves in the mix,..''

Buckle up.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Here is the discussion of the new tropical wave just off Africa.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON...NOW ANALYZED FROM 16N17W TO 10N18W MOVING W AT ABOUT
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE WAVE E OF 22W FROM
5N-15N.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
451. Patrap
12:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
450. plywoodstatenative
12:04 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Aye,,break out the Triple Cannon


Break out more than that Pat if NOGAPS is on tap with that bomb
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
449. Torgen
12:03 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Quoting Patrap:


MAN, that is a heck of a lot of dry air.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
448. Rmadillo
12:03 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Torgen- do your homework before buying the rain barrel. Placement and capture rate make the difference between success and a waste of money. Those things ain't cheap.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. plywoodstatenative
12:02 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Correct, but if that moisture we are reading over Central America does start developing, would that be what the CMC is hitting on then? We have two different systems apparently, NOGAPS hitting on that bomb over the Gulf and the one that becomes Arlene as well.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
446. Patrap
12:02 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
445. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:01 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


Shary?

Danny had some interaction with an upper level trough during his creation (but was a tropical wave).

Grace in 2009 of course was none of those three, coming from an extratropical cyclone or some sort (Laura in 2008 was also in this category, I think).


Yes, Grace came from a large extratropical cyclone that came from a Cold Front. This is the same way that Tropical Storm Laura of 2008 formed also.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
444. Patrap
12:00 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Aye,,break out the Triple Cannon
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
443. Cotillion
12:00 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
One thing I've kinda noticed is the lack of trough split cyclones the last few years. I think the last time we had a named storm that developed from a trough instead of monsoonal or Cape Verde was Edouard in 2008, and TD5 in 2010 was also a trough split but didn't become a named system.


Shary?

Danny had some interaction with an upper level trough during his creation (but was a tropical wave).

Grace in 2009 of course was none of those three, coming from an extratropical cyclone or some sort (Laura in 2008 was also in this category, I think).
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
442. Torgen
12:00 AM GMT del 22 Giugno 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The models are all showing lower pressures (and higher amounts of precipitation) in the BOC the rest of the week however the system that develops into what becomes ''Arlene'' on the models appears to come from the Western Caribbean.


The game is afoot! /sherlockholmes

(and about time, too.)
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
441. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:59 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The models are all showing lower pressures (and higher amounts of precipitation) in the BOC the rest of the week however the system that develops into what becomes ''Arlene'' on the models appears to come from the Western Caribbean.


Which is noted by the 12Z CMC @ 144 hours.



Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
440. blsealevel
11:58 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
439. CybrTeddy
11:57 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Teddy,

If Beatriz fell apart sooner than the models forecasted, thus the moisture that we are seeing doing the cross continent movement could be what they are forming in the Bay of Campeche. However it would be forming earlier than expected.


The models are all showing lower pressures (and higher amounts of precipitation) in the BOC the rest of the week however the system that develops into what becomes ''Arlene'' on the models appears to come from the Western Caribbean.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
437. plywoodstatenative
11:56 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Teddy,

If Beatriz fell apart sooner than the models forecasted, thus the moisture that we are seeing doing the cross continent movement could be what they are forming in the Bay of Campeche. However it would be forming earlier than expected.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
436. CybrTeddy
11:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
One thing I've kinda noticed is the lack of trough split cyclones the last few years. I think the last time we had a named storm that developed from a trough instead of monsoonal or Cape Verde was Edouard in 2008, and TD5 in 2010 was also a trough split but didn't become a named system.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
435. Patrap
11:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Historical SLOSH Simulations
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
434. druseljic
11:49 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Gearsts:


Wow, that shows some serious warming in the GOM!
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
433. plywoodstatenative
11:49 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Patrap:
.." das Poof "..



Okay, could the energy that the models are hitting on be that pop of moisture that has weened itself off of Beatriz in the EPAC?
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
432. Patrap
11:46 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
.." das Poof "..

Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
431. Hurricanes101
11:44 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks cold core to me.


I didnt mean up north, I meant by the ITCZ
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
430. CybrTeddy
11:43 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Look at the low pressure in the CATL on the GFS


Looks cold core to me.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
429. Hurricanes101
11:42 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS 180 hours out, 01L or well organized invest in the BOC.


18z NOGAPS 180 hours, TS or Category 1 in the GOMEX. (take with a grain of salt)
Link

12z CMC, TS over the Yucatan at 144 hours.


18z GFS ensembles indicate a low in the SW BOC too.




Look at the lower pressures in the CATL on the GFS
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
428. Chucktown
11:42 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
You can also say that fall has gotten off to much earlier start in the US the last two years, increasing the frequency and strength of troughs during the peak of the season. Could this be the reason why its been so quiet here since 2007. Don't know, but its possibility.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
427. CybrTeddy
11:38 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
18z GFS 180 hours out, 01L or well organized invest in the BOC.


18z NOGAPS 180 hours, TS or Category 1 in the GOMEX. (take with a grain of salt)
Link

12z CMC, TS over the Yucatan at 144 hours.


18z GFS ensembles indicate a low in the SW BOC too.


Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
426. plywoodstatenative
11:36 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
someone post the GFS run as that is one of the more reliable models please.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
425. Tropicsweatherpr
11:35 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOGAPS, CMC & GFS are now all onboard for development for a system next week. We need to wait for consistency.


The 00z model run package will be important to see if they continue to show development.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
424. CybrTeddy
11:33 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Rmadillo:
Well cyber, no one wants to see a repeat of '05. Neutral conditions do render a more chaotic state of affairs. We learned a lot with Ike. Could easily be a whole lot of learning again this year, too.


I agree, no seasons are alike. And your correct in saying that we simply don't know what setup is going to be in place to have US landfalls.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
423. Rmadillo
11:33 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Chucktown:


You just contradicted yourself. There is no correlation between this years storms that form and the fact that we haven't had a landfalling hurricane here in the US since 2008. Hugo hit here in Charleston in 1989 and it'll be 22 years this September. Yes, another hurricane will hit Charleston some day, but it's a 50/50 chance every year. If we get hit this year, it doesn't lower the chance that we get hit in 2012.


'nuff said.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
422. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:32 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Chucktown:


You just contradicted yourself. There is no correlation between this years storms that form and the fact that we haven't had a landfalling hurricane here in the US since 2008. Hugo hit here in Charleston in 1989 and it'll be 22 years this September. Yes, another hurricane will hit Charleston some day, but it's a 50/50 chance every year. If we get hit this year, it doesn't lower the chance that we get hit in 2012.


I didn't say anything about us not having a landfalling hurricane here in the USA since 2008.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
421. Rmadillo
11:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Well cyber, no one wants to see a repeat of '05. Neutral conditions do render a more chaotic state of affairs. We learned a lot with Ike. Could easily be a whole lot of learning again this year, too.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
420. Chucktown
11:30 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You are right - We cannot tell what it is going to be like in terms of landfalls on the USA this early in the season. BUT, several factors point to an active landfall year, which makes me believe that there will indeed be several USA landfalls.


You just contradicted yourself. There is no correlation between this years storms that form and the fact that we haven't had a landfalling hurricane here in the US since 2008. Hugo hit here in Charleston in 1989 and it'll be 22 years this September. Yes, another hurricane will hit Charleston some day, but it's a 50/50 chance every year. If we get hit this year, it doesn't lower the chance that we get hit in 2012.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
419. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Rmadillo:


we're in agreement on that, Keeper. But numerous conus landfalls? doubtful.


I am not so sure. The 2008 season, one of our analogue years, had 6 tropical cyclone (TS and hurricane) landfalls. Another analogue year, 1999, had 5 tropical cyclone landfalls. The 1996 season, another analogue year, had 4 tropical cyclone landfalls. To top of this post, 1955, one of our analogue years, featured 5 tropical cyclone landfalls.

So in sum, there is consistency with multiple tropical cyclone landfalls on the USA for this season.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
418. Rmadillo
11:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Ike had surge comparable to a low end Category 5.

And this is why the folks smarter than me, are constantly argueing for a better ranking/rating system for hurricanes. Yes, Cat 3 is considered a major. Ike was bad, no doubt about it. But it was no Andrew or Ivan, which I thought by your mention of Cat5, you were implying. Ike never got itself all wound up good. It was too big.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
417. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting SLU:
Massive bomb on the 18z NOGAPS

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
yeah surprize saw that we got to await at least a minumum of 3 runs to see if it continues its depiction
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
416. CybrTeddy
11:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Rmadillo:


Seasonal predictions? For high numbers, yeah. For landfalls? doubtful. Everyone got themselves into a tizzy over last year's setup, and look how that panned out.


It is like was just stated, there's a 50/50 chance of landfalls. Last year's setup was based on timing, and we almost got walloped by a Category 4 just by a hundred miles or so, Earl. We're in a 5 year drought of major hurricanes hitting the United States, and 2 year drought for hurricanes actually striking the US too, we're going to run out of luck eventually. Neutral years favor multiple US landfalls, La Nina years like 2007 & 2010 don't have as many US landfalls as years like 2005 and 2008 do.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
415. CybrTeddy
11:25 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
NOGAPS, CMC & GFS are now all onboard for development for a system next week. We need to wait for consistency.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
414. Gearsts
11:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
412. Rmadillo
11:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting druseljic:


But aren't seasonal predictions headed that way?


Seasonal predictions? For high numbers, yeah. For landfalls? doubtful. Everyone got themselves into a tizzy over last year's setup, and look how that panned out.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
411. CybrTeddy
11:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Rmadillo:


Ike's surge damage was mostly due to it's size, and the area where the water piled into. The water had no where to go.

Land Ike on the east coast of Fla, there's have been little to no surge like what it had.

You're spray-painting apples and calling them oranges.


I said in most regards Ike was a major hurricane, BESIDES Ike was a 110 mph hurricane at landfall, the threshold for a Category 3 is 111, are you honestly going to tell me that's going to make much of a difference with wind damage? I am well aware of why Ike's surge was so high, because of what you stated. It rated very high on the .I.K.E scale.
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
410. druseljic
11:22 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting Rmadillo:


we're in agreement on that, Keeper. But numerous conus landfalls? doubtful.


But aren't seasonal predictions headed that way?
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
409. WeatherNerdPR
11:22 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2011
Quoting SLU:
Massive bomb on the 18z NOGAPS

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Where did THAT come from?!
Member Since: Dicembre 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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