Update on 90E and Atlantic disturbance
Invest 90E in the epac is getting more and more organized. The low has become more defined and convection has increased. The enviorment around 90E is favorable for TS formation and the NHC gives 90E a 80% chance of development. I think the invest will become a strong TS based off intensity forecasts and my thinking. Wind shear is low, waters are warm, air is moist, and a low pressure system with a ULAC show conditions are conducive for development. 90E will be in a favoprable enviorment for the next few days and then begin to move into harsher conditions and weaken. 90E should not be a threat to land except for Hawaii as a light rain/wind threat. No other development is expected in the next 48 hurs.
A strong tropical disturbance formed earlier today in the Bahamas. The NHC has given this system a 10% chance of developing. This systems enviorment has warm waters, moist air, low to moderate shear(good), high pressure, and land interaction(bad). A mid level circulation is centered over S FL and is expected to move into the gulf. Conditions there are also mostly favorable. A ULAC looks to be developing over the center. This reduces shear around the system. A high pressure enviorment doesn't allow t-storms and low pressure systems to develop easily. Convection has waned with this system but could refire and it could develop in the gulf even though is not likely. This system has been producing heavy rain and strong winds and will continue to do so reguardless of development. This system should move out in the next couple days and things should retun to normal. No other development is expected in the next 48 hours.