Special Update: Isaac weakens to a TD, Kirk rapidly strengthens, Leslie intensifing
Since the tropics are really active and really changing I'm doing a special update. I will try to do 1-4 blogs every 1-2 days depending on the amount/severity of storms.
TS Isaac has weakened to TD Isaac. Isaac now has 35mph winds, a 995mb pressure and is moving NNW @ 12mph. Isaac continues to dump heavy rain in the south with lots of flooding. Numerous reports of flooding and rescues have come from Isaac and people still need to take Isaac seriously. A tornado threat still exists with Isaac's outer bands. A tornado watch is in effect for most of MS and small parts of AL and LA. Isaac will turn to the north and then east as he weakens and accelerates. He should bring beneficial rain to parts of the south and Ohio valley. This will be one of the last updates on Isaac as he is really weakening and will go post-tropical in a couple days.
Hurricane Kirk has been rapidly intensifying today continuing to strengthen. As of the 5pm advisory Kirk is a category 1 hurricane with 90mph winds, 982mb, and NNW @ 13mph. Right now data is supporting a category 2 hurricane but we will have to wait for the next advisory. Kirk will continue to strengthen over the next 2 days and I think he will become the season's first major hurricane. His satellite appearance shows convection increasing/deepening on all sides and a small but clear eye. Kirk will not affect land but is a good storm to track. He will turn extra-tropical in a 3-4 days and then weaken.
Right now TS Leslie is slowly intensifying. Currently she has 45mph winds, 1004mb pressure and is moving W @ 21mph per the latest NHC advisory. Leslie looks to be slowing down and possibly turn WNW, this has to be watched. Data looks to support 50knts for the next advisory. Leslie has been nicely developing convection and organizing her circulation. Steady intensifying should continue over the next few days. Most likely Leslie should go north of the islands and then out to sea. Its possible that Leslie hit the US and less like goes into the Caribbean. Leslie looks to be the first classic Cape Verde hurricane. People need to watch her as she is a possible threat to land. Models have been continuing to develop more storms and we are in a very active period. With a mjo pulse and climatology speaking I think a 17/10/4 prediction for the number of storms is likely.
I'll have a new update tomorrow on Isaac, Kirk, and Leslie. Here is my forecast:
Have a safe night and hopefully everyone is ok from Isaac. Insured losses are now estimated at $1.5 billion and is expected to rise.
Updated: 11:01 PM GMT del 30 Agosto 2012
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Isaac inland, Kirk becomes a hurricane, 98L becomes TD12
TS Isaac made landfall yesterday as a 75mph hurricane. Since he is over land he has been weakening and is now a 40mph TS. Isaac has a pressure of 987mb, which is really low for a 40mph TS, and is moving NNW @ 9mph. Isaac has lost all convection on the west side of the storm due to dry air. The east side is still producing heavy rain and areas east of the center have picked up to 10"+ of rain so far. With Isaac's slow NW motion more rain/flooding is expected. Tornadoes have been another problem lately with Isaac. Numerous tornado warnings have been issued over the past day around 10-12 being reported. Over the next couple days Isaac will continue NNW and slowly pick up speed. He will then really speed up and then turn to the east near St. Louis. Isaac will bring beneficial rain to some drought stricken areas. Isaac will continue to weaken and go extra-tropical and will dissipate in a couple days. The damage has already been done in LA, MS, AL, and FL and Isaac will be remembered for a while.
TS Kirk has been steadily strengthening since yesterday and is now a hurricane. Right now Kirk looks really good and is primed for more intensifying. Convection is strong and an eye has appeared on satellite which shows a healthy system. latest NHC advisory had Kirk at 75mph winds and a 989mb pressure. The latest ATCF has Kirk at 70mph and at 11am Kirk will likely be 70-75mph. Kirk will continue with its turn to the north today and strengthen to a hurricane. As for peak strength I think a moderate cat1-low end cat2 is likely. Kirk will be no threat to land as he is in the middle of the Atlantic. After a few days Kirk will begin to lose tropical characteristics and become extra-tropical.
TD12 will be another storm to watch as a threat to the US. Right now TD12 has 35mph winds and a 1007mb pressure and is moving W @ 20mph. Satellite shows a good circulation covered by convection and it has 35mph which warrants depression status. While TD12 will likely go out to sea per the latest models this year has shown anything can happen. Models have been showing TD12 re-curving out to sea and this is likely. Its still possible to get some higher waves and rip currents from TD12 so the US is not in the clear. I think TD12 could be this year's first major hurricane. It is still too early to make a solid intensity/track forecast.
The year is getting very active and more storms are predicted by the models in the future.
Here is my forecast for Isaac, Kirk, and TD12:
I'll have a new update tomorrow, stay safe everyone who got affected by Isaac.
Updated: 04:08 PM GMT del 30 Agosto 2012
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Isaac a hurricane and is close to landfall, new TS and Invest
Past few days
At 12:20pm EDT TS Isaac became Hurricane Isaac. Back to a few days ago Isaac left Cuba. His circulation was disrupted and he weakened some. He was predicted to rebound quickly and hit the FL keys as a hurricane. This never happened, dry air/ some shear kept Isaac in check. A 65mph TS went through the FL Keys producing heavy rain/wind and flooding. He could've been worse but luckily wasn't. He was forecasted to go into the GOM and become a strong hurricane. Also that's didn't happen, he went into the GOM but could not strengthen. With his circulation distorted he could not recover. He held his own through most of the GOM until last night. That is when he began to overcome his struggles and strengthen. Earlier today he intensified enough to be classified a hurricane. Storm surge and rain/flooding would be his major threats.
Right now Isaac has 80mph winds and a 968mb pressure. Isaac has been wobbling around for the past few hours. He has been going NW and SW so its just drifting offshore. His convective/cloud field has became very circular over the evening. His radar appearance has also improved greatly over the afternoon and evening. Flight level winds have been up too 110mph but only 80mph surface winds. Isaac has a pressure of a cat2, winds of a cat1, and storm surge of a cat2/3. Aircraft recon is currently investigating Isaac and is finding him slowly strengthening. The winds may go up to 85mph but that will be it if there is any increase. Isaac has been building up a storm surge that is up to 14-15ft. Combined with the flooding rains this has been stressful on the levees and a few have been or close to over topped. The heavy rain has been causing a lot of flooding so please do not drive around. The strong winds and heavy rain have been uprooting trees and knocking out power. Right now 220,000 people are without power in Louisiana alone.
Isaac is a dangerous storm and needs to be taken seriously. Right now he may have weakened slightly but is still dangerous. Some Wunderbloggers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have been getting wrecked by Isaac, hopefully they are ok.
Forecast for Isaac
Isaac's forecast is becoming a little easier. Since he is close to landfall he doesn't have many places to go. Isaac has been wobbling around for the past few hours. He may be starting to move more west as a possible upper level ridge to the north is forcing him to the west. He would then have more time over water and would make landfall farther west as well. A prolonged surge, flooding, rain, wind,and tornado threat is in store for AL, MS, LA, and even parts of TX. Isaac will eventually move inland over the next day. After 36 hours he will begin to accelerate away from NOLA. They will have gotten around 12ft storm surge, 10-20" of rain, high winds, and flooding by then. Isaac will provide some wind and beneficial rain to the central plains, Ohio valley, and the Great Lakes. Isaac's legacy will be the rain/flooding/surge. Hopefully everyone has been and is ready for Isaac.
TS Kirk and Invest 98L
TD11 formed earlier in the day. A good circulation had convection develop and persist which was enough for classification. Satellite indicated it strengthened which indicated TD11 became TS Kirk. Kirk is not a major threat to land. Kirk has 45mph winds and a 1007mb pressure. He is forecasted to become a strong TS and go out to sea.
A new invest, 98L, was numbered earlier in the evening. It has 25mph winds and is moving in a westward direction. It has been organizing nicely and the NHC give 98L a 30% of developing over the next 48 hours. I give 98L a 50% chance of developing in the next 48hrs. Models have been developing this wave for awhile and it needs to be watched for tropical development.
I'll have a new update later today/ at the latest tomorrow. A side note is Isaac will make landfall near the same location and time as Katrina did 7 years earlier. Isaac isn't as bad as Katrina but he is still bad.
TS Isaac hits Haiti and Cuba, threat to the US
Past few days
Tropical storm Isaac made landfall last night as a 70mph TS in Haiti and then 60mph in Cuba. Isaac has been producing heavy rain and wind for Hispaniola ans S Cuba. Isaac has been blamed for a few deaths in Haiti and more deaths/damage is expected to come out. Until yesterday Isaac was disorganized with multiple centers and was decoupled. Yesterday conditions improved and then Isaac got vertically stacked, a well organized center formed, and convection wrapped around the center. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba have weakened Isaac some.
Current conditions of Isaac
Right now Isaac has 60mph winds and a 1000mb pressure. Isaac has been wobbling around for the past few hours. This shouldn't have too much of an impact on his track. The circulation has remained pretty well intact and there is some convection near it. Convection is starting to increase a little and the coc is over water right now. So Isaac should begin to re-strengthen today. He still has a way to go before looking really good but he is not dead. Right now a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is investigating Isaac. So far they are finding Isaac a 50mph-60mph and 999mb-1000mb TS. So any speculation that Isaac will weaken a lot should be put to bed. Also a NOAA Gonzo jet is investigating the environment in front of Isaac. This data set will go into the models and make some improvements. In short, right now Isaac is holding his own.
Forecast for Isaac
Isaac may weaken a bit or stay the same over the next this afternoon and evening. He will have to re build his core and fire more convection. He should not die or weaken considerably. He will move along/ offshore Cuba for the next day and build himself back up. When Isaac nears the FL Keys he could be a cat1 hurricane. Waters are really warm and he should have a good environment. It all depends on how much he re-organizes today/tonight. Hurricane warnings and TS warnings are up for S FL so please listen to officials and act on your hurricane preparations. Once Isaac gets into the GOM he should intensify steadily and possibly go into rapid intensification. I think a 120mph peak, 115-110mph landfall between Mobile, AL and Panama City, FL is likely. Most people in FL will receive heavy rain and TS force winds from Isaac. Some in S FL and parts of the Panhandle could receive hurricane conditions and tornadoes. Tampa should receive TS force winds and heavy rain/flooding. The GOM is ripe for intensification but not for cat4/5. So I think a peak at cat3 is likely. Anyone in the path of Isaac or who will feel his effects should monitor the situation closely.
Invest 97L in the C ATL is organizing. It is forming a low level center and has been firing some convection. It has a way to go before becoming a TD and I give 97L a 50% chance of developing in the next 48hrs. 97L could be a threat to the US. Also models have been developing a wave currently over Africa. That could also be a threat to land. We are in a very busy time right now.
I'll have a new update tomorrow
TS Isaac forms and is a threat to the US
TS Isaac has formed in the C ATL. He has 40mph winds, pressure of 1006mb, and is moving W at 18mph per the latest NHC advisory. I was at first TD9 and has been steadily organizing. Earlier when aircraft recon was investigating TD9 they found TS force winds so the NHC named TD9 TS Isaac. Isaac's formation brings the number of TS's this year to 9 which is above average. Isaac's satellite appearance has been steadily improving over the past 6 hours. Shear has lessened which is allowing convection to cover the center. Pressure has slowly been dropping with the convection increasing. While Isaac is a large storm his tropical storm force wind field is very small. This will change as he is expected to continue to strengthen. Isaac is currently competing with an area of convection to his south, he is still moving a little too fast, and is battling some dry air. This is preventing him from really taking off. But with shear decreasing and his forward speed slowing some dry air is becoming less of an issue. The forecast for Isaac is pretty tricky right now and there is a big ? mark as to where he will go. Any wobble can affect his intensity/track as he could go over Hispaniola/Cuba, just to the north, or just to the south. Models have been somewhat trending toward a S FL landfall right now but consistency isn't there for a serious call. looking at the latest steering map Isaac should continue W to WNW day or so before going NW due to a trough. Then this is where the models break apart. The ECWMF, which usually does great except for most of this year, takes Isaac into the GOM and intensifies it to a major hurricane. While the GFS, the other really reliable model, takes Isaac into S FL. But the GFS ensemble members take him all over the map. This is why there is no set in stone track for now. Once again looking at the steering map and forecast of the trough and Bermuda high, I think Isaac will make somewhat brief landfalls in Haiti and Cuba and the get pulled NNW and possibly brush FL and then make a final landfall between Jacksonville, FL to the SC/NC border. As for intensity, I think Isaac will hit Haiti as a 80mph hurricane and then weaken back to a TS due to hand interaction. Then Isaac will move NW and come close to Miami, FL before either moving inland some or staying offshore. Either way Isaac should go more N and make intensify to a cat2/3. I think a Savannah, GA to Charleston, SC area for landfall as a cat2 is probable. Anyone from the Leeward Islands to PR to Hispaniola/Cuba to FL and the rest of the SE US coast needs to watch Isaac as he is still unpredictable right now. This not an official NHC forecast and anyone looking for the official forecast or is making a life or death decision needs to go to the NHC for that. My forecast track for Isaac and a satellite view can be seen below. This blog will have a new home at my website weathergrab.com but will still remain seen on WU, come check it out. I'll have an update on Isaac and 96L tomorrow.
TD7 and 93L struggling
Since TD7 and 93L are both having problems I will keep this blog to one section. The system TD7 has been struggling ever since it got named that. Right now TD7 has 35mph winds, 1009mb pressure, and is moving W @ 24mph. Dry air, trade winds, and too fast speeds have kept TD7 from becoming Gordon. TD7 does have some healthy convection near the center but it is disorganized. There is also little model support on TD7 so it has little hope. TD7 is just like Ernesto right now with a ragged shape, poor 850mb vorticity/ has a tail, and poor environment. I think TD7 has 2-3 days to live and then it is dissipated by the factors above. TD7 may become TS Gordon but it would be for a short time and weak. Anyone in the Leeward Island should expect some heavy rain and gusty winds. Invest 93L is having similar problems to TD7. 93L is in really dry air and cool sst's which is holding off development. Right now 93L has some convection and a nice spin but poor environment conditions greatly limit develop for now. Right now I give 93L a 20% chance of development in 48hrs but a higher chance once it gets farther west. This invest needs to be watched for future development.
I'll have another update tonight.
Updated: 06:59 AM GMT del 11 Agosto 2012
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TD7 maintaining strength and 93L forms
TD7 has been holding it own in the C Atlantic. The storm is though disorganized and will remain so. It's llc is partly exposed but there is decent convection around the center. This has been the same organizational traits as yesterday. Right now TD7 has 35mph winds, 1009mb pressure, and is moving W @ 23mph. TD7 should continue to move W/WNW for the next few days and move into the Caribbean. A marginally favorable environemt will allow some strengthening. Dry Air and moderate trade winds combined with TD7's fast movement will keep it from strengthening much. Over the next couple days expect slow strengthening and then level off until the W Caribbean. TD7 shouldn't be much of a threat to anyone. He needs to be watch since if he gets to the W Caribbean/ GOM he could really strengthen. This is the same set-up as Ernesto and expect an Ernesto-like storm for now.
An area of showers and thunderstorms with a low pressure system has been named invest 93L. 93L has been steadily organizing and it could become a TD in the next 2 days. The conditions for development are decent except for dry air. A WNW movement should be expected over the next few days. I give 93L a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours. 93L should be watch over the next few days since models still develop it.
Post-TS Ernesto: TD Ernesto has became post tropical and the NHC wrote their last advisory on Ernesto. He is still producing heavy rain and flooding in Mexico. Ernesto made landfall in Costa Maya and then Coatzacoalcos. Some damage and a few fatalities have been caused by Ernesto. He may try to redevelop in the epac but if that happens he won't be a threat to land.
Remnants of Florence: The remnants of Florence have mostly diminished and she is not much of a threat to anywhere.
I'll have a new update tonight or, more likely, tomorrow.
TD7 formes and Ernesto moves inland
Invest 92L has been renumbered and named TD7 by the NHC. TD7 has 35mph winds, 1010mb pressure and is moving W @ 20mph. TD7 has a well defined llc and convection has been building over it. Organization trends throughout the day have been increasing and the NHC decided that the low was depression status worthy. TD7 is in a relatively favorable environment for gradual strengthening and TD7 could be TS Gordon tomorrow. Shear has been fairly low and sst's are warm but dry air is a factor. TD7 has been able to overcome this dry air and not much should stop this from organizing. In the short term TD7 will move W and steadily but slowly strengthen. Once it gets in the Caribbean it will have the same problem as Ernesto, trade winds. The trade winds should keep TD7 from becoming a major system in the Caribbean. Steering patterns could lead TD7 into the gulf and then all bets are of. A serious system could arise if TD7 makes it into the gulf. People in the Caribbean and gulf need to watch the progress of TD7 and need to start thinking about their hurricane plans/prep.
TS Ernesto made landfall earlier today near Coatzacoalcos, MX with 60mph winds. When he made landfall in the Yucatan he was likely stronger but since recon had mechanical problems we don't know the true intensity. Ernesto has dropped heavy rain and some wind but luckily not much damage reports have came from Mexico. Ernesto should weaken but he may redevelop in the epac. If he does he won't be a threat to land. People in S MX still need to watch for minor wind damage, flooding, and land/mudslides.
Ex-Florence: A tropical wave, the remnants of Florence, is producing vigorous but disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands. Environment conditions are not really favorable and major development is not expected but it still needs to be watched.
African wave: A tropical wave is emerging off the African landmass. Right now the wave is looking good but the land to ocean transition and some dry air will limit develop for now. I give this area a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
Updated: 11:05 PM GMT del 09 Agosto 2012
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Full tropical update
TS Ernesto right now has 70mph winds, 993mb pressure, and is moving WSW @ 13mph. His satellite appearance is improving, convection is increasing, pressures are dropping, and his circulation has became more defined. He may be a 75mph hurricane right now and recon is in the storm as of now. His only problem is land interaction as he is skirting the coast right now. He will likely make landfall in the next few hours if not already. I saw a 75mph hurricane coming in around Coatzacoalcos. Ernesto is bringing a heavy rain and wind threat to S MX and anyone affected should follow all precautions and listen to officials. Once he moves inland he should rapidly weaken and dissipate in about a day. He will still have a flooding and land/mudslide threat. This should be one of the last times Ernesto is mentioned much here.
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure have been numbered invest 92L. 92L has been increasing its organization and looks like a tropical depression. Though shear is favorable 92L has to contend with dry air. Another problem is the coc is moving away from convection but convection should re-cover the coc. Since dry air should be the only inhibiting factor I give 92L an 80% in the couple days. 92L will be headed WNW for the next couple days. As it gets further west it should be stronger and may move a more NW since a high pressure will be to it's east. Right now it is too hard to tell exactly where it could go so anyone in the Caribbean and the east coast needs to watch this for development.
Ex- Florence is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms right now. Even though it is in a high shear environment and it is only a T-wave it could develop later. It does have a good vorticity value and it could surprise someone and re-develop. Even though it is unlikely it still deserves to be watched.
A tropical wave is about to exit the African mainland and enter the Atlantic ocean. This is the wave the gfs has been developing for a while. There is a spin and some convection and certainly has at least a chance of development. This needs to be watched closely and so do trends in model runs.
I'll have another update in the next day and a complete update on Saturday as I'm gone on Sunday.
Ernesto enters the BOC
TS Ernesto has weakened from being over land as he used to be a hurricane. He came ashore in Costa Maya, Mx with officially 85mph winds and 980mb pressure. I say officially as storm chasers recorded a lower pressure and higher winds and it was likely that Ernesto was a low-end cat2 hurricane at landfall. Not much has came out of Mexico which is so far good. Ernesto never lost his shape and is quickly re-strengthening. As of the 2am advisory he had 70mph winds, 993mb pressure, and is moving W @ 16mph. Convection is increasing and he will remain over water for 12ish more hours and should become a hurricane. Hurricane/ TS warnings are up and anyone in his path should expect hurricane conditions in the next 12-24 hours and should follow all warnings. I think an 80mph hurricane will make landfall between Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. Once he makes landfall he will dissipate rapidly but still pose a rain threat. I'll have a full Wxchaser97 tropical update tomorrow afternoon, we may have a TD by then and an interesting wave over Africa. I will also have a tropical graphic forecast out tomorrow afternoon and it will be included in this blog.
Ernesto makes landfall, 92L/post Florence, and new African wave
Hurricane Ernesto made landfall in Costa Maya, MX around 11:00pm EDT/ 03:00 UTC. Ernesto had winds of 85mph and had a pressure of 980mb. His structure at landfall was impressive and he was likely stronger than an 85mph hurricane. We may never know his true strength since recon had difficulties in Biloxi and left the runway which meant they couldn't get any readings. If Ernesto was in the N Caribbean for 6-12 more hours we may have had a major hurricane so the Yucatan is lucky. Hopefully everyone followed all warnings and there is little damage/ no loss of life. Ernesto is dumping heavy rain and wind on all of the Yucatan and it should take around 24hours to clear the Yucatan and enter the BOC. From there Ernesto should restrengthen to an 85-95mph hurricane depending on how much luster he loses over land. I think Ernesto will make landfall between Veracruz and Tampico.
Ex Florence and invest 92L are both in the E Atlantic and both have a chance at development. Her remnants have shown convection from time to time but the environment is harsh and re-development is unlikely and shouldn't affect any land with major impacts. Do not though forget her remnants as she may try to come back in a few days.
Invest 92L is looking decent and has a modest environment and could become the next TS. If this were to happen then it would be Gordon. Convection has been pretty consistent and it has a nice spin. It could take a path similar to Ernesto or a little farther north. All models running on this turn it into a TS so the Caribbean Islands need to watch this as well. The NHC and I give 92L a 30% chance of development in the next 48hours.
Finally the GFS has been very consistent with developing multiple Cape Verde storms and sending them toward the East Coast. Depending on if 92L develops or not they would be Gordon, Helene, and Isaac or Helene, Isaac, and Joyce. This year when the GFS has been consistent with something it usually happens and this scenario needs to be watched. The first wave is currently over Africa now and is already looking like a tropical system. Things could get very interesting over the next couple weeks.
I will be back with an update on Ernesto tomorrow morning/early afternoon and a full update in the next day or so. Once again I'll be gone between the 12th to the 17th and may not be able to write any update or be on the Doc's blog.
Special Update: Ernesto becomes a hurricane
TS Ernesto has became the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season. Aircraft recon has found hurricane force surface winds which warrant an upgrade. Ernesto is a cat1 hurricane with 80mph winds, 983mb pressure, and is moving WNW @ 14mph. Hurricane warnings are up for most of the Yucatan Peninsula and anyone over there should expect TS- Hurricane conditions in the next few hours if not already. His appearance has improved greatly on satellite over the past 12 hours. The coc has became even more well defined and convection has increased on all sides. The environment is conducive for more strengthening right up till landfall so he should continue to intensify. The forecast for Ernesto is still a little tricky with him trending more N of where the NHC forecasts him to go. I expect a 90-95mph hurricane to make landfall between Costa Maya and Punta Allen. After that he should weaken back down to a strong TS but go back into the BOC. The strong Texas death ridge will prevent him from going too far north. Once he is there he should re strengthen back to a hurricane(85mph) and make a landfall between Tecolutla and Tampico. Once inland he should rapidly weaken due to loss of warm water and the mountains. Anyone in hurricane Ernesto's path needs to follow the warnings and take all safety precautions. I will have a full update on the tropics this Evening.
My forecast for Hurricane Ernesto, NOT OFFICIAL
Updated: 04:27 AM GMT del 08 Agosto 2012
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TS Ernesto has been slowly organizing all day. His circulation has become vertically stacked and well defined. Convection has increased and so have the winds. Right now Ernesto has 65mph winds, 994mb pressure, and is moving WNW @ 13mph. But of course Ernesto continues to have problems that limit it from becoming a monster storm. The environment is moist, warm waters, and low shear are pluses but dry air and land interaction are negatives. Conditions are still favorable for strengthening and Ernesto could become a hurricane later today. Convection has been increasing again though and the pressure has been slowly dropping which indicates a strengthening system. This could change at anytime and with Ernesto's past that is likely. Anyone on the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras should expect heavy rain and wind and should follow all safety/warning precautions and statements. I'll provide an update on Ernesto(some have nicknamed him "Trollnesto") when conditions warrant. This is an update only on Ernesto, tomorrow will feature a full tropical Atlantic update. Also I will be gone on vacation from Sunday 8-12 to Friday 8-17 and may not be able to do blog updates then.
Ernesto energized , Florence finished, and the GFS predicting hurricane Gordon
Tropical storm Ernesto has had a rough past few days. Trade winds and dry air have disrupted his circulation and made convection disconnected from his coc. This has kept Ernesto weaker than he could have been. Right now Ernesto has 50mph winds, 1003mb pressure, and is moving W at 13mh. He is currently starting to organize which is not good for the Yucatan. Environment conditions have improved the past 6-12 hours which has allowed Ernesto to look better. The sst have warmed, trades lessened, Shear decreased, and the air is more moist. The only factor right now against Ernesto is time, he will make landfall in around 2 days. He may even make landfall in Central America if current trends continue, but I expect a WNW movement to occur soon. I think a landfall on the middle to southern part of the Yucatan as a minimal hurricane is the likely scenario but anything is possible. No matter what Ernesto is a heavy rain and wind threat where he makes landfall and he still needs to be watched.
My forecast graphic for Ernesto and Florence:
Tropical Storm Florence formed on Saturday and had peak winds of 60mph. She was the 6th storm of the year. Her environment was great for development in the beginning but has became hostile now. Florence has weakened to a wimpy 40mph storm and should degenerate to a remnant low soon. Florence is not expected to impact land but some models redevelop her so she still needs to be watched.
The GFS has been consistently showing a hurricane forming just off Africa and coming close to the US. It would be a strong storm if it formed and trends in gfs runs need to be watched. If a storm formed it would be named Gordon and he would be the seventh storm of the year.
Updated: 06:59 AM GMT del 06 Agosto 2012
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99L is strengthening
A low pressure system combined with a vigorous tropical wave has been numbered 99L. 99L has a decent amount of convection even with dealing with DMIN. Once 99L feels DMAX convection should increase while 99L is detaching from the ITCZ. This is also affecting 99L but convection should increase after awhile. 99L is gradually organizing and should become TD5 tomorrow. 99L has 25knt winds, 1009mb pressure, and is moving WNW per latest NHC_ATCF.
The environment around 99L is favorable for development. Shear is low, trades are weakening, waters are warm, and the air is relatively moist. An anticyclone is developing over 99L which should help protect it from wind shear. 99L should continue on its WNW movement for the next few days. A closed surface low is lacking and 99L is still attached to the ITCZ. These two factors are keeping 99L from further developing. The ITCZ has been helping convection and it should be interesting to see what it does when it detaches. A well defined surface low should form also when 99L detaches from the ITCZ. Expect some development over the next few days. Once 99L approaches and passes the island we should expect further strengthening. Conditions should be favorable and a deeper convection over the coc. I think a peak of 70mph after the Windward islands is a probable scenario. After that it should track south of the greater Antillies(see my forecast map above). 99L will weaken some due to trade winds but more favorable conditions near the GOM will allow more strengthening. Where 99L finally goes is a mystery right now. Models don't have a good grip on 99L and won't until it is declared TD5. I won't guess/ forecast a track beyond the W Caribbean due to the great uncertainty of the environment ahead. I give 99L a 70% chance of becoming TD5 in the next 48 hours. I will write an update on 99L when needed.
Updated: 05:09 AM GMT del 01 Agosto 2012
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