Posted by:weatherh98, 04:40 PM GMT del 19 Giugno 2012
This blog describes Invest 95L and an unnumbered AOI in the central Caribbean. Thanks to Levi because i am getting some images off of his site!
Currently, invest 95L is about to enter into the Gulf stream. It is responding to this by intensification of thunderstorms near the center which has now wrapped completely around the center. The cloud tops are getting colder and have sustained themselves for about four hours now.As seen here. It even has an eye like feature although I have seen that already with a subtropical entity which I believe was 92L. It looks better with every satellite frame. I do not expect classification from the NHC quite yet but is very possible by 5 PM we will get a renumber so long as the uptick in convection sustains itself.
The models are in pretty fair agreement about the track of this storm. It should slide east, do a loop-de-loop before moving north east again. Should it move over the gulf stream for quite a while, we may see a transition to tropical although I doubt this will happen. Should not be a threat to land.
CARRIBEAN DISTURBANCE Currently, there is an AOI in the central Caribbean. It is very a elongated and there is a trough that is connected to it going all the way north to just east of invest 95L. It is also very disorganized. It is under about 25knots of windshear meaning that it is not in a very conducive atmosphere for development. This should change as it enters the central GOM. Shear will lessen as an anticyclone develops and water temps are near 85 over the gulf stream. Because it is so broad, it will take time for consollidation and strengthening. This shouldn't allow it to get too strong. This should move north around the Bermuda high into the loop current before shifting directions to the west-northwest. Due to a ridge building in the southeast US. The winds and temps part of the AWC really doesn't close off the low as it moves north. This is the forecast for Friday 0600 UTC by the AWC.
Again this shouldn't be very intense but it will be a rainmaker for somewhere on the gulf coast as this develops.