An AOI near the northwest Bahamas has been putting on quite a show this morning. You know we're getting deep into the hurricane season when one of there just pop up.
High resolution visible imagery shows a large tropical wave that in the past few hours has started to show signs of spin.
Ship reports and buoy observations do not indicate a surface circulation. However, very strong winds have been reported in the Bahamas 45-55kts. Pressures are also high around 1015mb.
Our Exclusive SIISE Estimate goes along with strong shear for the first half of its cycle, then really ramps it up as some shear is expected to relax in a day or two. (SEE BELOW)
As of 10:00am CT 12z 7/22 START AOI Near NW Bahamas Initial 22.66kts. Forecast Intensity +12h 25.49kts. +24h 35.93kts. +36h 39.92kts. +48h 62.66kts.
The 12z NAM and GFS want to take the system up the east coast of Florida. The GFS is notable because along the way it Splits the system in two. One going up the East Coast, the other going westward toward Texas. In typical GFS fashion it wants it both ways, this suggests that further runs may change direction radically once the model makes up its mind. The ECMWF wants to bring the disturbance NW. Eventually bringing it to the Alabama coast. None of the models show strong support for development.
As of 1pm CT The NHC gave the system a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.