nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 03:47 PM GMT del 26 Marzo 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 84.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 69.0 °F |
| Umidità: | 61% |
| Vento: | 1.0 mph from the NNE |
| Raffiche di vento: | 4.0 mph |
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Updated: 07:28 PM EST del 18 Giugno 2013
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VALID FOR THE AFTERNOON OF JUNE 14TH 2013
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF JUNE 15TH 2013.
SYNOPSIS:
Light to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will continue across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a high pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean.
THE FORECAST:
Today: Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of afternoon showers and possible thunder. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east to northeast 5 knots or less. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of afternoon showers and possible thunder. Temperatures will rise to the low 90’s. Winds will be east to northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.
TIDES:
Today: High 1:42 p.m. Low 7:39 p.m.
Tomorrow: High 1:55 a.m. Low 8:55 a.m. High 3:08 p.m. Low 8:56 p.m.
SUNSET: 7:04 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:47 a.m. Tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: is for similar weather condition through Sunday afternoon.
FORECASTER
Porter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL BUILD WESTWARD AS A TROUGH BRUSHING CUBA
MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH MONDAY. A CUT OFF LOW
FORMS IN THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A WEAK
TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK. EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOISTURE TODAY...MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LIMITED EXCEPT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A NARROW SLOT OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS HOWEVER UNTIL LATE MONDAY AND RETURNS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER...
AS MEASURED BY THE SOUNDER IN BAYAMON...SURPASSED TWO INCHES. HEAVY
SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST AT 18 TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH PUERTO
RICO AND SAINT CROIX. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH
OVER LAND AND WERE HEAVIEST IN YABUCOA...SAN LORENZO AND CAGUAS.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH OF ARECIBO JUST
BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES IN A STREAM THAT WAS STILL ACTIVE AS OF
4:45 AM AST. MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE BEST
MOISTURE EXITS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY 16/00Z TAKING MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WITH IT.
DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN THE
MID ATLANTIC RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST SOMEWHAT...BUT STRENGTHENS.
HENCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
CONTINUES RICH UP TO ABOUT 6 KFT...BUT EXCEPT FOR A SHORT BREAK
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE AT MID LEVELS IS DRY. DEEP HIGH
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY PRESENT EXCEPT MONDAY AND TUESDAY JUST BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SHOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE AREA AND IS FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY
BY 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB AND MORE SAHARAN DUST. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER
MID LEVELS DRY CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE AND LEAD TO SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER OVERALL TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL SITES...WITH
CHANCE OF VCSH ACROSS ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND
TJBQ AFT 15/17Z DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AREA. WIND BLO
FL100 ESE-SE 15-25 KT THRU SAT. SHRA WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS.
GUSTS IN SAINT CROIX WERE MEASURED TO 29 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BROUGHT HIGHER SEAS TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS YESTERDAY AND TODAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO COME DOWN TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...SEAS IN MOST OF OUR EXPOSED
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AT 4 TO 6 FEET AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 78 / 40 10 10 10
STT 88 80 88 80 / 40 10 10 10
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO OVER HONDURAS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS
DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THAT AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N90W
THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY THEN ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY TUE.
HISPANIOLA...
THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF
HAITI LATER THIS MORNING AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT WILL
REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W MOVES E
TOWARD THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NHC
ISSUED AT: 10:14AM
Date:Saturday 15th of June 2013
Meteorologist: Akil Nancoo
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Intermittent cloudy periods with light to moderate
showers in varying localities will interrupt
otherwise sunny daytime and cool evening and
nighttime conditions. There is the small chance
of a few showers becoming heavy and thundery
mainly near southern Trinidad during the day and
afternoon.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS: Normal to Moderate
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Near 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:52PM
Date:Friday 14th of June 2013
Port of Spain HIGH 7.42am 8.57pm LOW 1.55am 2.10pm
Scarborough HIGH 7.44am 8.52pm LOW 1.46am 2.25pm
NEWS RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, June 14, 2013 – 5:00 p.m.
*** INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ***
A Tropical Wave, currently across Hispaniola, is moving towards the west and is expected to move across Jamaica on Saturday.
As the Tropical Wave moves across the island, it is forecast to bring an increase in rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms which may be heavy at times, are likely to affect sections of all parishes, as well as adjacent waters on Saturday afternoon and throughout Sunday.
A Gradual improvement is expected on Monday as the Tropical Wave moves away from Jamaica and through the western Caribbean.
Fishers and other small craft operators should exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
cdj
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH AND CUTS OFF
JUST NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES KEEPING FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS PERSIST OVER AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE BEST MOISTURE OF
WEEK WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE COMES THROUGH.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT REMAINS VERY SHALLOW. WINDS AT 850 MB INCREASE AND TURN
SOUTHEAST AS A TROPICAL WAVE COMES THROUGH LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE DECREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER THAT BUT RETURNS BRIEFLY
ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ONLY SPRINKLES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
HAS TURNED MORE STABLE AND AIR ABOVE 6 KFT HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT SAINT CROIX DROPPED
BELOW 1.5 INCHES. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NOW LOCATED
PREDOMINANTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD PENETRATION
OF THE SUNLIGHT AND FORCE A SEA BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL COASTLINES
THAT WILL ALSO ACCELERATE THE TRADE WINDS NEAR SHORE. THEREFORE
EXPECT MORE WIND TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECTED MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...BUT DRIER MID LEVELS AND CONSIDERABLE
SAHARAN DUST GENERATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION
OF THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO BRING MORE ACTIVITY TODAY
AND HAVE LEFT POPS QUITE LOW OVER THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A TROPICAL
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
AREA. ALSO THE GFS IS SHOWING WINDS AT 850 MB EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS
OVER SAN JUAN AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY NOON.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRY MID LAYERS THIS MAY CAUSE STRONG WINDS TO REACH
THE SURFACE DURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS SHOULD SHOWERS
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH WITH ANY ORGANIZATION. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR COND EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES. HZ
ASSOC WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CAUSE SLIGHT VIS REDUCTION AT TIMES.
WIND FROM SFC TO 2K FEET THRU SUNDAY GENERALLY FROM ESE AT 15-20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE 4 TO 6 FEET MOST EXPOSED WATERS WITH 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 7 FEET WITH APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
NECESSARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 10 10 10
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W-90W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS
ALSO EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 76W-87W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
18N78W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN FURTHER ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON. WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING
THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.
HISPANIOLA...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SPARSE THIS MORNING BUT WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Sunday, June 16, 2013
A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature. This will maintain a relatively dry and stable atmosphere across the region through Tuesday. Hazy and breezy conditions will be evident. Meanwhile, a tropical wave located in the Atlantic ocean is expected to approach the region by Tuesday.
Brisk winds will generate moderate to rough sea conditions through today, with swells peaking near 10.0 feet. Thereafter, swells will gradually subside peaking near 8.0 feet. A small craft warning is in effect for above normal sea swells. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly on the east coast, should exercise caution.
2013-06-16 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE.
It will remain sunny and hot in the most of Cuba, apart from the Eastern region where the presence of a tropical wave will bring overcast skies and locally heavy rainfall during the afternoon hours.
The daytime temperature will be in the range of 31-34 C (88-93 F), while overnight it will be between 24-27 C (75-81 F).
The sea will be mostly calm all day through, apart from the North-east area where it will become rough after the midday.
Winds will blow from the Atlantic ocean at the speed of 10-25 KmPH 6-15 MPH).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND COME TO WITHIN 320 MILES OF THE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PULL NORTH SOMEWHAT BUT REMAIN
NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL DRIFT WEST
DURING THE WEEK THEN RE-FORM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS SPARSE UNTIL A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 53 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT...BUT A LITTLE MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING NORTH AND SOUTH OF VIEQUES BY 5 AM
AST. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COME ONSHORE IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHT. DRY MID LAYERS AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TODAY AND EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES BUT MAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 20/06Z AND MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH
WAVE PASSAGE AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM FOR MORE ENHANCED
ACTIVITY...BUT MOISTURE AND GOOD DYNAMICS PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST
20/18Z AND SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS WINDS AT 850 MB
INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 19/18Z. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 16/18Z
MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWED UP TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON
20/06Z. THIS WOULD BE OF SOME CONCERN SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
AT NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS OF UP TO 50 KNOTS IN
ISOLATED AREAS SHOULD THEY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. LIFTED INDICES OF
-5 TO -7 ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CAPE IS ABOUT 3250 BUT OCCURS ON TUESDAY...AND BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER RELATIVELY HIGH AND MAY NOT SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED DOWNDRAFT
ACTIVITY. WITH SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST...WILL SAY
THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS LESS ACTIVE...BUT WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU MON...THOUGH HZ FROM SAHARAN
DUST WILL AFFECT VSBY. WIND SFC TO 2K FT ESE 15-20 KT BCMG GENERALLY
FROM E.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WERE BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41043
AND MODEL SHOWS LITTLE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET OR WINDS UP TO 20 KTS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO DRY AIR AND WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
IN THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 1000 MB.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 10 20 50
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 10 20 60
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO MENTIONED ABOVE. IT IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-
22N WEST OF 82W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG A LINE
FROM 11N82W TO 16N84W NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
09N PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 10N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NW
FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL GENERAL WEAK SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-66W.
HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W IN
THE SW NORTH ATLC. ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT COTNINUES
TO PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
NHC
11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 17
Location: 16.2°N 87.6°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Lesser Antilles Forecast
This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Monday 2013-06-17 To 2200Z Monday 2013-06-17
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx : Fair to occasionally cloudy, hazy and windy with a few scattered showers.
Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 - 45 km/h.
Seas: Moderate to rough in open water swells 2.5 - 3.0 metres. A small craft warning remains in effect for above normal sea swells.
Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Monday 2013-06-17 To 1000Z Tuesday 2013-06-18
Synopsis: A tropical wave will be approaching the southern part of the region.
Wx : Over the southern Windwards. Partly cloudy to cloudy, hazy and windy with some scattered showers. Elsewhere: Fair to occasionally cloudy, hazy and windy with some scattered showers.
Winds: ENE - ESE at 10 - 45 km/h.
Seas: Moderate to rough in open water swells 2.5 - 3.0 metres. A small craft warning remains in effect for above normal sea swells.
Date:
MONDAY 17TH JUNE 2013
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION#2 WILL CROSS BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SEVERAL OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. (THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT TIMES. THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING FOR LOW LYING AREAS.)
Winds:
NORTHEAST 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 15-25 KNOTS TONIGHT.
Sea State:
MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES **SMALL CRAFT WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE**
Outlook:
THROUGH TO WEDNESDAY NIDDAY: CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN DISTRICTS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
Tropical Weather Discussion
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT
SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 66W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
EAST OF 70W...IN TRADEWIND FLOW.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N56W 22N65W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA
ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W...ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF PANAMA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N IN
COLOMBIA TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...NEAR 17.0N
89.4W 1009 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 18 MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
7 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 19N
TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18.5N TO THE
WEST OF 83W. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.
EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.
HISPANIOLA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST
PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON
TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH
A TROUGH CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHIFTS
WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...
WITH HISPANIOLA RIGHT IN THE TROUGH.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NHC
ISSUED AT: 10:20AM
Date:Tuesday 18th of June 2013
Meteorologist: Sarah Sammy
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
Trinidad:
Persistent cloudiness is expected throughout the
forecast period and may be accompanied at times
by light showers and/or intermittent light rain.
Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands:
Moderate to heavy showers and/or intermittent
rain are expected to accompany cloudy to overcast
conditions. Over the Southern Windward Islands,
there is the chance that some of these showers
may become thundery.
The Remainder of the Lesser Antilles:
Mostly hot and breezy daytime conditions are
expected to transition into a clear night with a
light breezy at times.
NB: Occasionally gusty conditions are expected
over the forecast period during
showers/rain/thundershowers and may result in
choppy sea conditions being experienced at
times.
SEAS: Moderate occasionally Rough
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5m occasionally 3.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Near 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:50PM
Date:Monday 17th of June 2013
Port of Spain HIGH 11.18am 11.40pm LOW 5.03am 4.57pm
Scarborough HIGH 11.12am 11.29pm LOW 5.01am 5.03pm
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Wednesday midday 12:00 l.t., June 19, 2013.
Issued: Tuesday June 18, 2013 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC ).
Weather:
Today and Wednesday: Generally partly cloudy and a chance of a few brief local showers.
Forecast high will be 33ºC and the low will be 27ºC.
Sunrise will occur at 06:12 and sunset at 19:02.
Winds:
Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).
Occasionally strong to possibly near gale in gusts; force 6 to 7 (40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: A tropical wave located this morning over the southeastern Caribbean area moves Westwards. During the next 24 hours patches of cloudiness are expected to increase over the local area with a few passing showers, due to the approaching tropical wave.
Sea conditions: Generally moderate 3 to 7 feet waves. Locally fairly rough seas.
Significant tropical weather systems:Tropical Depression Two was located this morning over the Yucatan Peninsula while it slows down somewhat inland. The cyclone is foreseen to move on a more west northwest track over the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday. The tropical depression doesn't pose a threat to the local islands.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Thursday midday: Generally partly cloudy and a possible local shower.
Forecaster: Luciano
Viewing: 1851 - 1869
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