nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 03:47 PM GMT del 26 Marzo 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 76.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 68.0 °F |
| Umidità: | 77% |
| Vento: | 2.0 mph from the NNE |
| Raffiche di vento: | 6.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:52 AM EST del 19 Giugno 2013
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PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, SATURDAY, 9TH JUNE, 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMD MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.
FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS:
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, HOT AND HUMID WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...GENERALLY FAIR TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN TSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...FALLING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SEAS RUNNING: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY: 93°F 34°C LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT: 77°F 25°C.
SUNSET: 7:59 PM SUNRISE: 6:19 AM SUNDAY.
MOONRISE: 12:23 AM SUNDAY MOONSET: 12:30 PM SUNDAY.
HIGH TIDE: 12:44 PM LOW TIDE: 6:52 PM HIGH TIDE: 1:03 AM SUNDAY
OUTLOOK FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR SUNDAY: A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOT AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER: GREGORY D THOMPSON
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Sunday midday 12:00 l.t., June 10, 2012.
Issued: Saturday June 9, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MUST EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING OVER OPEN WATERS...
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy and slightly hazy
Tonight through Sunday midday: Partly cloudy and slightly hazy
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:10 and sunset at 19:00.
Winds: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Mainly today, gusting occasionally, strong to possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: No significant precipitation is expected over the islands during this forecast period, with slightly hazy conditions due to Saharan Dust. Furthermore, expect a fresh to strong wind flow over the region for the next 24 hours.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. The highest wave action will be over the Northern open waters and passages between the islands. Mariners are advised to be aware of this event.
Significant Tropical Systems: none
Special features: none.
Outlook until Monday midday: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation; slightly hazy.
Forecaster: D. E Barkmeyer
The next weather forecast will be issued on Saturday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC).
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK..AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...LOTS
OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 48 WEST IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE SHOWS AN AREA OF 20-25
PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AMOUNTS UPSTREAM OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS PWAT VALUES ARE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THIS HIGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE TAF PRD. GENERAL LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST AT 5-15 KTS BLO 20K FT. FEW-SCT PATCHES OF
LOW LVL CLD LYRS BTW 010-030K FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN FROM TIME
TO TIME IN THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY...
BUILDING TO 5 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 92 / 10 10 10 10
STT 78 89 80 90 / 10 10 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND N COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF S
OF 13N W OF 77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL HOLD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE LOW WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY EXCEPT DURING THE PASSAGES OF
THE TROPICAL WAVES TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER NOON ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MINOR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED STEADILY OVER
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS SINCE 10/02Z WHILE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED DIRECTIONS FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM
SET TO CROSS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
10/17Z AND 11/02Z. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN THE LIFTED INDEX...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF DRIER AIR WILL CROSS
THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE THE RAMP-UP OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AFT 12/00Z. WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW...SHOWERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BETWEEN 12/00Z AND 13/00Z. A
RETURN TO A DRIER PATTERN AND SOME MORE SAHARAN DUST WILL FOLLOW
UNTIL SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITHOUT BREAKING ANY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... VERY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER TJMZ...AND TJBQ BETWEEN 10/18Z AND 10/21Z...IN ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET WITH
WINDS AROUND OR JUST BELOW 18 KNOTS DURING THE WINDIEST PARTS OF
THE DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON MONDAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 10 0 10 30
STT 90 79 90 80 / 10 20 20 50
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SRN
MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE
SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN CENTRAL AMERICA IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN COASTS OF
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WRN COSTA RICA
AND SRN PANAMA. DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BESIDES POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE STILL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ISLANDS BY 24 HOURS.
2:05PM
ISSUED AT: 10:03AM
Date:Sunday 10th of June 2012
Meteorologist: O. Lovell
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD:
Cloudy with intermittent showers and periods of
rain and the isolated thundershower, gradually
improving after mid afternoon.
TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Mainly fair with the isolated shower.
SEAS: NORMAL BUT CHOPPY NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 30 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:29PM
Date:Saturday 09th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 8:29 am 9:22 pm LOW 2:29 am 2:46 pm
Scarborough HIGH 8:25 am 9:25 pm LOW 2:35 am 2:48 pm
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Sunday, June 10, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature across the region during the next 12 to 24 hours. As a result, any showers activity will be limited mainly to the early morning period. A layer of Saharan dust will result in a slight reduction in visibility across the region.
An Atlantic tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough is located about 480 miles or 770 km east of the Lesser Antilles.
This wave is expected to begin affecting the area by late tonight into Monday resulting in an increase in cloudiness and scattered showers.
Moderate sea conditions will be maintained during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coast, are advised to continue to exercise caution.
Date:
SUNDAY 10TH JUNE 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW PREVAILS...
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW; PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT; SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
Sea State:
MODERATE-ROUGH;
* OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS *
Outlook:
THROUGH TO TUESDAY MIDDAY: GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE PROMOTES AN
STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK..AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A
SMALL AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS OF PUERTO RICO..ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED STREAMERS
DOWNWIND OF THE SMALL ISLANDS AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF EL YUNQUE
NATIONAL FOREST. THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED WEST OF EL YUNQUE
PRODUCED SOME RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF CAROLINA...TRUJILLO ALTO AND
SAN JUAN BUT THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE. THE PWAT ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED AN ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE
NEAR 56/57 WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. OPERATIONAL
MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TUESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRY AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS
OF 4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 88 / 0 10 50 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 50 50
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...BEYOND JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PANAMA BEYOND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W
15N57W 11N58W. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 27N26W
15N54W-TO- NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
POSITION OF THE WAVE IS NEAR A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N56W 16N58W 11N59W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE PANAMA COAST ALONG
78W...AND THEN BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W
AND ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA...IN CENTRAL NICARAGUA...AND
ALONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL PLAINS OF
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN EL SALVADOR. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND
83W. WATCH OUT FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ALSO IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS MOMENT...AND
IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY AIR...WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST. IN
FACT...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE ONLY FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES AS THE TROPICAL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR BEHIND THE WAVE...COMBINED WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...PROMISE TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION... TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME AND WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 11/20Z AND 11/23Z WITH SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. MVFR CONDS MAY OCCUR BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER. THE
WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE USVI AFT 12/04Z AND MUCH OF PR DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
PUERTO RICO MONDAY...SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN INTENSE HEATING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH A
STREAMER POSSIBLE OFF OF EL YUNQUE. LLVL WINDS E 10 TO 20 KT WILL
BECOME AFT 11/16Z EASTERLY NEAR THE SFC TO S 10-15 KT AT 10 KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 10 30 40 40
STT 89 79 89 81 / 20 50 50 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF
10N W OF 75W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN INACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Monday, June 11, 2012
A tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough is expected to result in an increase in moisture levels across the Lesser Antilles during today. This is expected to maintain partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with a few scattered showers across the island followed by a gradual drying out of the atmosphere by tonight.
Moderate sea conditions will be maintained during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 8 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coast, are advised to exercise caution.
A westward moving tropical wave is located in the Central Atlantic Ocean about 1020 miles or 1890 km east of the Lesser Antilles.
General Conditions: Moderate easterly to northeasterly winds will persist over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a high pressure system over the Western Atlantic.
partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers.
Winds over open sea
Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots for Grand Cayman, northeast 10 to 15 knots for the Sister Islands.
Sea State
Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Temperature
High: 89°F | 32°C
Low: 78°F | 26°C
June 11, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough east of Jamaica.
Comment
The Trough broadens over the central Caribbean and weakens
on Thursday as a High Pressure Ridge returns with fairer and drier conditions over the Caribbean.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy over eastern parishes.
This Afternoon… Few showers likely over western parishes and inland areas.
Tonight … Mainly fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 34 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Tue…Partly cloudy for most of the day. Isolated showers are likely in the afternoon over hilly areas with windy conditions as well..
Wed/Thu… Partly cloudy day oer most places. Isolated showers expected over hilly areas and western and parishes. Windy conditions likely over southeastern parishes.
Regionally… A Stationary Front is north of the Caribbean as the 5th Tropical Wave for the season approaches the Lesser Antilles.
rar
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MONDAY 11TH JUNE 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEATHER: PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY AND HOT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. FAIR AND HUMID TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IS IN EFFECT.
WINDS: NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SEAS RUNNING: 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY: 88°F 31°C LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT: 77°F 25°C.
SUNRISE: 6:19 AM SUNSET: 8:00 PM
MOONSET: 1:24 PM MOONRISE: 1:33 AM TUE.
LOW TIDE: 8:24 PM HIGH TIDE: 2:40 PM LOW TIDE: 8:53 PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CREATE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY:
WEATHER: MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM AND BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
WINDS: EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, FALLING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AT THIS TIME.
THE END.
I.V.M.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
AND BROAD TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT CONTINUE
WESTWARDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ALTHOUGH VERY
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST.
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND...DRIER SAHARAN AIR WILL
QUICKLY FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK. IN ADDITION...A WIND SURGE ACCOMPANYING THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER NOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS. FOR REST OF WORK WEEK AND THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOKING FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS BUT
STILL EXPECT LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN ISOLATED SPOTS EACH DAY. NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHRA EN ROUTE TO THE LOCAL AREA BTW 11/22Z AND
12/08Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAY OCCUR IN PASSING SHRA. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE FA. LLVL
E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 30 40 40 10
STT 79 89 80 91 / 50 50 30 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
71W-78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTRIBUTING
TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SAHARAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW BRUSHING THE COASTAL AREAS. A
VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL REGION.
THIS DRY AIR MASS...IN COMBINATION WITH A EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.
YESTERDAY THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED IN THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WAS 92 DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 13/12Z FOR ALL TAF
SITES IN THE LEEWARD AND USVI. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES
IN PUERTO RICO THRU 12/16Z...AFT WHICH MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 13/02Z AND MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MAINLY
BTWN 12/18-21Z WITH ISOLD TSRA AND SCT SHRA. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 10
TO 15 KT UP TO 10 KFT...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY WINDS
BTWN 10-20 KFT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 80 / 20 20 10 10
STT 89 80 91 82 / 20 20 10 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF IT RELATED TO SAHARAN DUST FROM WEST
AFRICA THAT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 13N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ENTERING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...
ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS
WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, June 12, 2012
A ridge of high pressure has established itself across the area. This will result in an improvement in conditions with shower activity occuring mainly during the late night to early morning period. A layer of Saharan dust across the region will also contribute to a reduction in shower activity and result in some reduction in visibility.
An increase in wind speed will maintain moderate sea conditions during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 8 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coast, are advised to exercise caution.
A westward moving tropical wave is located in the Atlantic Ocean about 660 miles or 1220 km east of the Lesser Antilles.
ISSUED AT: 10:15AM
Date:Tuesday 12th of June 2012
Meteorologist: B. Ramdatt
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards:
Partly cloudy to cloudy with periods of showers or
light rain and chance of the isolated afternoon
thundershower.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Mostly fair.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 30 Crown Point: 29
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:28PM
Date:Monday 11th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 10:40 am 11:03 pm LOW 04:31 am 04:29 pm
Scarborough HIGH 10:53 am 11;16 pm LOW 04:55 am 04:42 pm
Date:
TUESDAY 12TH JUNE 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH OR INLAND.
Winds:
EAST - NORTHEAST 5-15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY.
Outlook:
CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND WED. AFTERNOON, THEN SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST WED. NIGHT AND THURS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND BROAD/DEEP TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW...AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN A DOMINANT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL PRODUCT...SUGGEST THAT
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
BUT WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH LITTLE OR
NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 10 TO 15 KT UP TO 10 KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 90 / 0 10 10 10
STT 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ATLC WILL GRADUALLY FILL
WITH RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DESPITE TROUGHING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO
THE MID 90S TODAY AND AREA REMAINED DRY. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND
ANY RELIEF TO THE HEAT LOOK VERY DISMAL NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...MODELS SHOW A CLOSED H25 HIGH DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPS BETWEEN
950-700 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HOT WEATHER HOTTER THAN IT
HAS BEEN LATELY AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS HIT THE
CENTURY MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT MAYAGUEZ HIT 97 TODAY AND
99F A FEW DAYS AGO.
MODELS SHOW BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LAST THREE TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING AND THIS
ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE THE FOURTH IN A ROW. THE WAVE WILL BE
FIGHTING AGAINST BUILDING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNFAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION. EVEN IF SOME SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND WOULD NOT INCREASE THE FUEL
OR SOIL MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO PREVENT A SIG FIRE WEATHER
THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIG WX IMPACT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE 10 TO 25 KT
BELOW 12K FT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT CARIBBEAN
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WINDS 15-20 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS PAST 30 DAYS AND HOT WEATHER
HAVE DRIED OUT FUELS AND MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO BURNING WITH
FIRES OBSERVED ALL ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AS OBSERVED BY ME TODAY.
NO SIG RAINS ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING AND BRING FUELS CLOSER TO IGNITION IN
OTHER AREAS. SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS SFC THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. VERY HOT
AND WINDY WEATHER WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ARE LIKELY. WHILE
CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE UNDER STRONG RIDGE...VERY DRY FUELS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OFFSET AMY NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT STABLE CONDITIONS MIGHT HAVE.
&&
.CLIMATE...JUNE 2012 AT SJU LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
RECORD BOOKS. SO FAR THE AVG AND MAXT HAS BEEN 85.2F AND 91.9F
DEGS RESPECTIVELY SECOND ONLY TO JUNE 1988 IN BOTH CATEGORIES.
TODAY ALSO MARKS THE FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPS AOA 90F
AND THE TWELFTH DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST GET HALF WAY TO THE
MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AOA 90F DEG (35 DAYS) IN 1981
AND ALSO TO THE MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN
(36 DAYS) IN 2005.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 94 80 94 / 0 10 10 10
STT 82 89 82 89 / 0 10 10 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH A RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR...HAZY...HOT AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER AGAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BELOW 12K FEET.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MAINLY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL DEFICITS PAST 30 DAYS AND HOT WEATHER HAVE DRIED OUT
FUELS AND MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO BURNING...WITH FIRES OBSERVED
ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
FURTHER DRYING AND BRING FUELS CLOSER TO IGNITION IN OTHER AREAS.
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS PROBABLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS AGAIN FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. HOT AND WINDY WEATHER AND NEAR OR RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE
UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE...VERY DRY FUELS...LOW HUMIDITIES...HOT
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACT TO OFFSET ANY NEGATIVE
FACTORS THAT STABLE CONDITIONS MIGHT HAVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 94 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NICARAGUA THEN N THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 14N E OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W. W ATLC WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NW
THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
8:05AM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Thursday midday 12:00 l.t., June 14, 2012.
Issued: Wednesday June 13, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE EXPOSED WATERS.
Weather:
Today: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a local shower.
Tonight through Thursday midday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated to widely scattered showers with risk of an isolated thunderstorm.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:11 and sunset at 19:01.
Winds: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong; force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: Increasing moisture during the next couple of days will induce the development of cloudiness while shower activity may occur over parts of the local islands. There is some risk of thunder. Otherwise, winds could still get somewhat gusty at times and lead to locally rough sea condition.
Sea conditions: Generally moderate with waves between 1 and 2 meters.
Significant Tropical Systems: None.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Friday midday: Partly cloudy. Occasionally mostly cloudy with a few showers and possible thunder.
Forecaster: Luciano
The next weather forecast will be issued on Wednesday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC).
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY 13TH JUNE 2012
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY WITH THE CHANCE OF AN EVENING SHOWER, MILD TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN TSTMS
WINDS: E'LY 10/15 KNOTS
SEAS: 2/4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 87°F 31°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 73°F 23°C
SUNRISE: 6:20 AM MOONRISE: 2:42 AM LOW TIDE 10:04 AM
SUNSET : 8:01 PM MOONSET: 3:07 PM HIGH TIDE 4:29 PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE SE BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW BAHAMAS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY WITH FEW SHOWERS
WINDS: VRB 10KNOTS
SEAS: 1/3FT
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
WEATHER: PTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATT SHOWERS
WIND: LT AND VRB
SEAS: LESS THAN 3FT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM FORMATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
FCSTR. N.ARMSTRONG
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, June 13, 2012
A ridge of high pressure remains the dominant feature across the island. This will result in a reduction in any significant shower activity across the island during the next 24 hours. A layer of Saharan dust across the region will continue to result in some reduction in visibility.
An increase in wind speed will maintain moderate sea conditions during the next 12 hours with an improvement expected by tomorrow. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coast, are advised to exercise caution.
A westward moving tropical wave is affecting the extreme Southern Windwards increasing the chance for showers across this area during the next 24 hours.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SE AND SW
CORNERS OF THE BASIN ARE PARTICULARLY SATURATED. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND SRN
COSTA RICA...GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ENDING JUST S OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW BASIN
...BUT REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS WESTWARD WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL
DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN ON FRIDAY.
Date: Wednesday 13th of June 2012
ISSUED AT:07:32AM
ACTIVE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
Over the past few hours both Trinidad and Tobago
have been experiencing periods of rain and
showers, some of which have been moderate to
heavy. The Meteorological Office at Piarco
measured near 25mm of rainfall over the last
three (3) hours and a similar amount was recorded
at the Meteorological office in Tobago. This
rainfall activity is due to the presence of an
active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Intermittent rain as well as frequent showers,
some heavy and/or thundery, is forecast this
morning with a gradual improvement by late
afternoon.
The possibility of localized street and flash
flooding as well as landslides/landslips is
likely in the vicinity of prolonged rainfall or
heavy downpours and gusty winds in excess of 45
kph can accompany moderate to heavy showers or
thundershowers. Noting the amount of rainfall
that has occurred, and the forecast for the
continuation of this rainfall activity, rivers of
moderate carrying capacity can become bankful.
Citizens are advised to be vigilant and cautious
as they conduct their activities. Be alert to any
electrical discharges from thundercloud activity
and adopt measures which would preserve life and
property.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB
LOW IS ALSO FURTHER S OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N82W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. FURTHER
S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 64W-76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. SIMILAR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE S AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY TROUGHINESS ENCROACHING ON THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN NOSES
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY ALSO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR...HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT READINGS TO MAKE THE SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT RECORD OF 96 DEGREES SET IN 1983...IT WILL BE CLOSE AND
IRRESPECTIVE...IT WILL REMAIN HOT. IN FACT...THE CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AND HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LITTLE OR NO COOLING RELIEF. AS
A REMINDER...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS...SHOULD REFRAIN FROM PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES...TAKE
FREQUENT COOL OR SHADY BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER
NON-ALCOHOLIC AND DECAFFEINATED BEVERAGES...TO REMAIN WELL
HYDRATED.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE...IT
APPEARS THAT DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST...WILL INDUCE A MOIST SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...AS GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING...FA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND DRYNESS...AS SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. OVERALL DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN
FOR MONDAY AND AT LEAST A PART OF TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST A LITTLE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY AND HOT WITH SIGNIFICANT FUEL DRYING...AND
THERE IS A RISK OF FIRES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 0 10
STT 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE WRN
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DISSIPATES...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
2:05PM
June 14, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment
The Trough is expected to remain across the central Caribbean up to Sunday.Expect an increase in cloudiness over the weekend with showers during the afternoons.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy over sections of southern parishes.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Windy over sections of southern parishes.
Tonight … Partly cloudy.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Fri/Sat… Partly cloudy over sections of eastern parishes during the morning . During the afternoon expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sun…Mostly cloudy day with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Regionally… A Trough is producing cloudy conditions over the eastern Caribbean.
vtj
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Thursday, June 14, 2012
A tropical wave is located just east of the Lesser Antilles. This wave is expected to affect the extreme southern portion of the region later today into tomorrow. Some of these showers are expected to drift northwards over the southern Windward Islands and Dominica late tonight.
Meanwhile, Saharan dust across the region will continue to result in a reduction in visibility.
Sea conditions will remain moderate over the next few days. Gradual improvement is expected along the eastern coastline as the weekend approaches. However, small craft operators and sea bathers, should continue to exercise caution.
Date:
THURSDAY 14TH JUNE 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SPEADING TO MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
Winds:
EAST 10-20 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE.
Outlook:
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: CONTINUING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB
LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
73W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE S AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE PROMOTES AN
STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOCAL REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A DRIER THAN NORMAL
AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE PWAT ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW
AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR 60 WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ESTABLISHES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROMOTING A WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT
WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 17 KTS. AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES NEAR THE ISLANDS...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 FEET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 79 / 0 10 40 30
STT 89 79 88 80 / 0 20 40 20
Sunshine here yesterday, and so far this morning it's hazy/overcast but looking good.
Stuff coming in from the east should start to affect us this evening with more showers.
Oh well, it's the Rainy Season, right?
Hey pottery...yes, and you'll have increase in rainfall when the ITCZ moves northward between now and August...
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...
ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF A DISSIPATED TROPICAL
WAVE...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N W OF 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
10N80W EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL IS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 18N60W TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SIMILAR
ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS S OF GUADELOUPE E OF 66W. THE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS.
2:05PM
ISSUED AT: 10:06AM
Date:Friday 15th of June 2012
Meteorologist: O. Lovell
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Gloomy with intermittent showers,some heavy and
thundery and periods of light rain.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:35PM
Date:Thursday 14th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 12:38 am 1:53 pm LOW 7:25 am 7:07 pm
Scarborough HIGH 12:40 am 1:50 pm LOW 7:35 am 6:53 pm
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, June 15, 2012
A weak tropical wave is affecting the southern portion of the Eastern Caribbean. Mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms can be expected over the southern Windward Islands today. Some of this cloudiness and showers may spread over Dominica later today.
Meanwhile, the presence of Saharan dust across the area will continue to influence slightly hazy conditions over the islands.
Sea conditions will remain moderate throughout the weekend. Some slight increase in swells is anticipated by late Monday. Small craft operators and sea bathers, should continue to exercise caution.
Another tropical wave is located in the Eastern Atlantic and is moving westwards near 10kts.
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, FRIODAY 15TH JUNE 2012
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL GENERATE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THESE ISLANDS WHILE A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BUT PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT AT FIRST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SEAS: 3 FEET OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 90°F 32°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 77°F 25°C
SUNRISE: 6:20 AM MOONSET: 4:50 PM LOW TIDE 11:36 AM
SUNSET : 8:01 PM MOONRISE: 4:00AM SAT HIGH TIDE 6:04 PM
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
SEAS:4 TO 6 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORES OFTHE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM FORMATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
FORECASTER: PATRICIA STRACHAN-WEEKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVED INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. A JET OF 60 PLUS KNOTS WILL ROTATE
AROUND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT SHIFT TOWARD THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DIVES TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LEAVING FLOW OVER THE AREA
LIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
FLOW AT MID LEVELS IS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DAYS OF
EASTERLY FLOW MID-WEEK. MOISTURE IS BEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT APPEARS TO BE GENERATING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAN THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH GOOD MOISTURE INTERMITTENT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN THIS
PAST WEEK AND SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DUST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FOLLOWING THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM AGUADA TO
NORTHERN LARES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THEY APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC SIDES OF THE ISLAND. THE AIR MASS IS DRY
AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND HAS LEFT LIGHT SHOWERS IN SANTA LUCIA...BUT
SO FAR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN SAINT
MARTIN AND SAINT KITTS. MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A HEATING
BOOST EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD YIELD MORE THAN ONE INCH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND IT IS LIKELY TO BE WITH
US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DUST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO VALUES HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK DESPITE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONT ACROSS REGION XCP ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NW PR WHICH
WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MONITOR THESE FOR UPDATES AT
TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES. MOISTURE TO INCR WITH TROPICAL WAVE ON SAT FOR
PSBL MVFR CIGS. LLVL WINDS SE 12-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH THE
INNER BUOY NEAR SAN JUAN REPORTING LESS THAN 3 FOOT SEAS AND THE
OUTER BUOY LESS THAN 4 FEET. CONDITIONS INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
WEEK BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST SEAS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 78 88 / 10 20 20 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLC WILL
HELP PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY ON MON WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLC PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA OVR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT AND DRY SPELL
DO NOT PAINT A WET PICTURE FOR PR OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY GFS40 IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AS EVEN THE ECMWF ISNT ALL THAT WET.
NEVERTHELESS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FORM SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SAT NIGHT THAT WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE WRN THIRD OF PR EARLY SUN. NW PR IS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
UNDER A STRONG SRLY STEERING FLOW BUT NOT SURE THE REST OF THE
ISLAND WILL SEE MUCH RAIN. TWO THINGS THAT AM CONFIDENT
THOUGH...EVEN IF RAINS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE HIGH DENSE OVERCAST
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO FAIL TO HIT 90F AT SJU SUN. ALSO...EVEN
IF IT RAINS IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON THE SHORT
AND LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG
SRLY STEERING FLOW OF 15-20 KTS. I`LL BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
CONVECTION GENERATING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
SITES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT CREATING CEILINGS AT ABOUT 5K FT THAT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND
BELOW 10 KNOTS. AFTER 16/12Z...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INCREASES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PR. TSRA LIKELY ACROSS NW PR AFTER 16/18Z
WHICH MAY AFFECT TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ. SOME OF THESE TSRA
MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EVEN IF RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE THIS
WEEKEND THICK CLOUDS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER
LOW. HOWEVER...RAIN IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL NOT PUT A DENT ON THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SHARP
DRYING AND INCREASING WINDS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS DRY OUT ANY
MOISTURE PICKED UP FROM ANY RAINS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE 2012 AT SJU WAS THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85.6F DEGS AND ZERO RAINFALL.
THE SECOND WARMEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE WAS IN 1988 WHEN THE AVG
TEMP WAS 84.7F. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST FIRST HALF IN JUNE WAS IN 1997
(A STRONG EL NINO YEAR) WHEN 0.09 INCHES OF RAIN HAD BEEN MEASURED
TO THE DATE. TODAY ALSO MARKED THE 17TH AND 15TH CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 90F DEGS OR MORE AND WITHOUT RAIN RESPECTIVELY. THIS STREAK
COULD COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
THICK CLOUDS HIGH DENSE OVERCAST WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN.
THIS WAS ALSO THE DRIEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE AT SAINT CROIX WITH
ZERO RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST FIRST HALF WAS IN 1954 WHEN
0.02 INCHES HAD BEEN MEASURED TO DATE. TODAY ALSO MARKED THE 23RD
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT RAIN AT CHRISTIANSTED. THE RECORD IS 31
DAYS BACK IN 1988.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 88 / 0 30 20 40
STT 79 81 79 81 / 10 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
FURTHER S...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 77W-81W TO INCLUDE E PANAMA. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTEND INLAND FROM W PANAMA TO BELIZE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
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