nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 03:47 PM GMT del 26 Marzo 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 78.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 69.0 °F |
| Umidità: | 73% |
| Vento: | 3.0 mph from the NE |
| Raffiche di vento: | 6.0 mph |
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Updated: 09:37 PM EST del 18 Giugno 2013
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National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
83W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HONDURAS NEAR
18N86W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND BARBADOS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
2:05PM
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1600Z SUNDAY 3rd TO 1000Z MONDAY 4th JUNE 2012
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx: Mostly fair and breezy with brief isolated showers.
Winds: E - ENE at 15 to 35km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1.5 - 2.0m.
Meteorologist: Earl Hunte
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
SUNDAY 03RD JUNE 2012
GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEATHER: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN TSTMS
WINDS: VRB 10 KNOTS
SEAS:1/3 FEET OVER THE OCEAN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 84°F 29°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 72°F 22°C
SUNRISE: 6:20 AM MOONRISE: 7:22 PM LOW TIDE 1:20 PM
SUNSET : 7:57 PM MOONSET: 6:23 AM HIGH TIDE 7:46 PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY
WEATHER: CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS: S/SW 10/15KNOTS
SEAS: 2/4FT
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
WEATHER: PTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WIND: SW'LY 15 KNOTS
SEAS: 3/5FT
FCSTR. N. ARMSTRONG
June 03, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment
The High Pressure Ridge is expected to remain across the northern Caribbean for the next three days, generating windy conditions over southern parishes.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning Partly cloudy with windy conditions over southern parishes.
This Afternoon Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms over sections of western parishes and hilly inland areas. It will be windy along the south coast.
Tonight Mainly fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Mon Partly cloudy over eastern parishes during the morning, sunny elsewhere. During the afternoon expect isolated showers over western parishes, mainly sunny otherwise. Windy over southern parishes.
Tue/Wed Mainly sunny except for isolated showers over western parishes during the afternoon.
Regionally A Trough is generating cloudy conditions over the extreme western Caribbean.
WARNING MESSAGE (MARINE)
A Small Craft Warning is in effect for inshore and offshore areas of the south coast due to strong winds and rough seas.
rlb
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAIN AIR LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MON AS IT PUSHES WWD AND AWAY. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD MID WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK THEN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL AS AREA REMAINS INITIALLY UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THEN
UNDER A BUILDING STRONG MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU
HOWEVER MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. IT WILL ALSO HAVE TO FIGHT AGAINST STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MASSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OVERALL...HOT AND DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE RELIEF TO
THE HEAT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK JUNE 11...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC BUT AT THE SAME TIME MODELS INDICATE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE
AS STRONG AS THE ONE JUST EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. DUE TO SAHARAN DUST...VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 5 OR 6
SM...ESPECIALLY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 04/00Z. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES OF 5SM ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 04/10 BUT WERE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL CONCENTRATION
OF THE SAHARAN DUST AT THAT TIME. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...DECREASING AFTER 04/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT BY MID WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...COMPARISON OF MODIS IMAGERY BETWEEN MAY 26 AND
JUNE 02 INDICATE DRAMATIC DRYING IS OCCURRING ACROSS LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. THIS AS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY/DESSICATE FUELS NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF IGNITION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 0 0 0 10
STT 79 79 79 79 / 0 0 0 0
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N84W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NE
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND BEYOND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC.
NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH ARE
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF
82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE
MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS OCCURRING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRIER AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM 20N55W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W...
HOWEVER LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...STILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED LATE EVENING
OR EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWER...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS ESPECIALLY
EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE
BTW 6 TO 8 SM. TJSJ 04/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 15
KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 10 20
STT 87 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. REMAINING
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RE-DEVELOPING AFTER EARLIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAD DEVELOPED AND ALREADY DISSIPATED...COVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
A 23N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO A 13N63W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 6N71W IN COLOMBIA JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA
BORDER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 65W.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Monday, June 4, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature influencing weather conditions across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 hours. Therefore, mainly fair to partly cloudy conditions are expected over the islands today. Meanwhile, Saharan dust will result in a slight reduction in visibility during the next 24 hours.
A tropical wave located east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to bring increased moisture over the extreme southern Lesser Antilles by late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sea conditions will remain moderate during the next 24 to 36 hours with swells peaking near 7 feet. Some increase in swells is anticipated by mid-week. As a result, small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to exercise some caution.
ISSUED AT: 10:05AM
Date:Monday 04th of June 2012
Meteorologist: A. Nancoo
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Generally fair at times becoming partly cloudy
with isolated showers.
SEAS: Slight to Normal
WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:29PM
Date:Sunday 03rd of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 3.16a 4.31p LOW 9.53a 9.53p
Scarborough HIGH 2.55a 4.07p LOW 9.38a 9.42p
Date:
MONDAY 4TH JUNE 2012
Time:
6:01AM
General Situation:
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS MOIST AND LESS UNSTABLE LATER TODAY...
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AND SHIFTING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COAST.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES
**SMALL CRAFT CAUTION**
Outlook:
(TUE & TUE NIGHT) PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND AND IN THE SOUTH.
Temperatures:
Highs (today)
Lows (tonight)
Coast
31° C
87° F
Coast
26o C
79o F
Inland
33° C
91° F
Inland
23o C
74° F
Hills
26° C
79° F
Hills
20o C
68o F
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA AT 10N75W. A 1017 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF CUBA. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
83W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N88W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA AT
7N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER TRINIDAD AND
BARBADOS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
2:05PM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK
AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING
HAZY SKIES...AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY...SOME
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
OROCOVIS...JAYUYA...AND UTUADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE
MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS FEATURE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRIER AIR...IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...NO WX EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 89 / 0 0 20 10
STT 77 88 80 90 / 0 10 30 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB
HIGH N OF CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N78W. WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
OVER WATER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER ERN CUBA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER NRN
COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
VENEZUELA...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BESIDES A
FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD
TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTW 6 TO 8
SM. TJSJ 05/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5K FEET...BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY BUT
STILL LIGHT FROM 5K-30K AND THEN NORTHERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 21
KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 0 20 10 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 10 30 20 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS
DIMINISHED. IT IS POSSIBLE STILL THAT RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 18N63W TO A 15N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 7N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
8:05AM
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
TUESDAY 05TH JUNE 2012
GENERAL SITUATION: THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING CALMLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
WEATHER:MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH FEW CLOUDY INTERVALS, ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 91°F 33°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 72°F 22°C
SUNRISE: 6:19 AM MOONRISE: 9:25 PM HIGH TIDE 9:01 AM
SUNSET: 7:58 PM MOONSET: 8:32 AM LOW TIDE 3:09 PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WIND: SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15 KNOTS
SEAS: 3 TO 5 FEET
FORECASTER: PATRICIA STRACHAN-WEEKS
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1600Z TUESDAY 5th TO 1000Z WEDNESDAY 6th JUNE 2012
Synopsis: A tropical wave is approaching the Windwards.
Wx: WINDWARDS:THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT: Partly cloudy becoming increasingly cloudy to overcast with some scattered moderate showers. LEEWARDS: THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy with a few showers.
Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 to 35 km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water with swells 1.5 - 2.0 M.
Meteorologist: Craig Myles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST EPISODE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH 2 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED AT LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 93 DEGREES. THIS WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ANYTIME SOON. SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...COMBINED WITH HAZY SKIES...AND A VERY STABLE AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SAHARAN DUST WHICH CONTINUES AFFECTING
THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
TROPICAL WAVE PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE..SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
IN THE MID TO LONG TERM...SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A BIG
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...EXTENDING EAST FOR FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS AREA OF DUST
AND DRY WEATHER...IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND USVI/LEEWARD TERMINALS BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 5SM OR 6SM DUST HAZE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 88 81 90 / 20 20 40 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. TRADEWIND FLOW
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W-75W. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST SOME MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
THE FAR NW BASIN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
2:05PM
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE W ATLC. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE DRY AIR IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 63W DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD TOWARDS THE BASIN. CONVECTION IS
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TROPICAL WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY. AFTER
TODAY...MORE SAHARAN DUST IS ON THE WAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE. THESE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
GFS INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...FROM 1.26 INCHES AS OBSERVED BY THE 06/00Z
SOUNDING TO 1.94 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING
VALID AT 07/00Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE
INCREASES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AND WEAK WINDS
ALOFT SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SEE WHAT THE 06/12Z SOUNDING OBSERVES.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRIER AIR MOVES IN ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST. SO STARTING TOMORROW AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWING...A DRY PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY...MUCH LIKE
WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE WINDS
APPEAR TO BE MORE EASTERLY AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTERLY. GFS MODEL SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OR IN OVERALL INSTABILITY UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG 58 WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA MAINLY OVER TKPK/TNCM...TISX/TIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AS IN AND AROUND TJBQ BTW 06/17Z AND 06/22Z.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 81 90 81 / 20 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W/79W...FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...TO 32N IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N42W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 25N53W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO 9N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND 1N71W IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
16N61W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W
AND 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...AND BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS OCCURRING IN BELIZE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN MANY
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
8:05AM
Date:
WEDNESDAY 6TH JUNE 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND ONLY LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
Sea State:
MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
*SMALL CRAFT CAUTION*
Outlook:
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND INLAND.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Instability associated with a tropical wave will affect the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 to 36 hours. This will result in partly cloudy to cloudy skies and some scattered showers across the islands today. Some gradual improvement in conditions is anticipated as the wave moves further west.
Increased wind speeds will contribute to some above normal sea swells mainly along the eastern coast of the island during the next couple of days. Therefore, small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to exercise caution.
ISSUED AT: 10:09AM
Date:Wednesday 06th of June 2012
Meteorologist: P. Wellington
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards:
Partly cloudy and breezy becoming cloudy at times
with occasional showers and the chance of the
thundershower.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Partly cloudy and breezy with the isolated shower.
SEAS: Moderate
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:48PM
Date:Tuesday 05th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 4:55am 6:08pm LOW 11:31am 11:40pm
Scarborough HIGH 4:37am 5:48pm LOW 11:18am 11:29pm
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...HAS
NOT BRING TOO MUCH TO THE LOCAL AREA. VERY DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE KEPT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO MINIMAL WITH
ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
STAYED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ONCE AGAIN OVER PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE REACHED 92 DEGREES AT THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS IS ONE DEGREE SHY FROM THE RECORD OF
93 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 2006. ALSO...IS THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90S AT THE AIRPORT.
THIS HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHEAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 07/12Z. SOME VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJBQ
THROUGH AT LEAST 06/22Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 89 / 20 20 10 10
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS RELATED TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA.
TRADEWIND FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN...BECOMING SSE N OF 15N W OF 80W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS
2:05PM
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SE BAHAMAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...MUCH OF GUATEMALA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
REMAINING CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ALSO INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. MOISTURE
HAS ALSO MOVED INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW WEST SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NOW THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED PAST THE LOCAL
AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STARTING TO GO DOWN AND DRIER
AIR IS ONCE AGAIN MOVING IN. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF DUST WILL BE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...HOWEVER...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
VISIBILITIES.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY
SHOW A CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERLY AT
07/06Z TO WESTERLY AT 08/06Z WITH NO CHANGE IN SPEED...KEEPING IT
AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE WEAKER WINDS...COMBINED WITH A DECREASE
IN MOISTURE AND A GOOD CAP SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.
WIND ON THE OTHER HAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 90S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND IN THE MID 90S ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...MUCH LIKE IT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN
MAYAGUEZ WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED 95 DEGREES.
IN THE LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DOMINATED
BY A DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS KEEP INSISTING ON AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE
FLOWS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOME STATIONS WILL
REPORT INTERMITTENT MVFR DUE TO CIGS...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR UNTIL ABOUT 07/17Z. AT THAT TIME ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJBQ.
LLVL WINDS ARE E-ESE 10 TO 20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 93 78 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 80 89 81 / 20 20 20 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNS THROUGH MEXICO NORTH-TO-SOUTH...AND
THEN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO
THE WEST OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM
20N67W AND ENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS NEAR THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR A FEW AREAS OF WINDS AND SEAS. ONE SUCH AREA
CONSISTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET GOES
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 19N TO
THE EAST OF 82W. THE THIRD AREA GOES FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 80W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND AND 8 FOOT SEA.
8;05AM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Friday midday 12:00 l.t., June 8, 2012.
Issued: Thursday June 7, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MUST EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING OVER OPEN WATERS...
Weather:
Today and Friday: Generally partly cloudy and mainly during the overnight and morning a chance of a few brief local showers.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:10 and sunset at 18:59.
Winds: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally, strong to possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: A tropical wave moves away from the regional area but could still induce the development of a few local shower activity. Otherwise, there are indications that the current strong air flow will diminish gradually onto the weekend. For today, it will continue to generate locally higher than usual wave action.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. The highest waves are today over the Northern open waters and passages between the islands. Mariners are advised to be aware of this event.
Significant Tropical Systems: none
Special features: none.
Outlook until Saturday midday: Partly cloudy and a local shower possible during the overnight and into the morning.
Forecaster: Coffie
The next weather forecast will be issued on Thursday at 16:00 l.t. (20:00 UTC)
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1600Z THURSDAY 7th TO 1000Z FRIDAY 8th JUNE 2012
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx: Fair to occasionally cloudy, hazy and breezy with a few showers.
Winds: E at 20 to 40 km/h
Seas: Moderate to rough in open water with swells 2.5 - 3.0 M.A small craft warning is in effect for above normal sea swells.
Meteorologist: David Best
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THURSDAY, 7TH JUNE, 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.
FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS:
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...FALLING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SEAS RUNNING: LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY: 90F 32C. LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT: 77F 25C.
SUNRISE: 6:19AM SUNSET: 7:58PM.
MOONSET: 9:36AM MOONRISE: 11:40PM.
HIGH TIDE: 10:51AM & 11:17PM LOW TIDE: 4:58PM.
EXTENDED FORECAST: A MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY:
WEATHER: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...FALLING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SEAS RUNNING: 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS RUNNING: 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER: GREGORY D THOMPSON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS
HIGH AS 99 DEGREES AT MAYAGUEZ AIRPORT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO END ANYTIME SOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH A
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K
FEET...PROMISE TO MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A SLIGHT RELIEF IN THIS HOT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...WHICH HOPEFULLY...WILL
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS
HIGH AS 99 DEGREES AT MAYAGUEZ AIRPORT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO END ANYTIME SOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH A
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K
FEET...PROMISE TO MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A SLIGHT RELIEF IN THIS HOT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...WHICH HOPEFULLY...WILL
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS
HIGH AS 99 DEGREES AT MAYAGUEZ AIRPORT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO END ANYTIME SOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH A
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K
FEET...PROMISE TO MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A SLIGHT RELIEF IN THIS HOT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...WHICH HOPEFULLY...WILL
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA INCLUDING GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN
COLOMBIA TO THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ONLY SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 67W-73W. STRONGER
ACTIVITY IS ACROSS INLAND VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 8 DAYS. MID LEVEL AIR IS DRY UNTIL TUESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY PRECEDED BY AN AREA
OF DUST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE
EXPERIENCING SOME OF THE DRIEST CONDITIONS IN SEVERAL YEARS AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST. A RECORD HIGH AT SAN
JUAN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AS THAT IS 96 DEGREES
RECORDED IN 1975. BUT VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT AND FIRE DANGER IS
INCREASING. MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE WRF IS DRIEST WITH SOME SPRINKLES
FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AND LITTLE ELSE...WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS IN LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL AREA REGISTERING
AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER INCH ON THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND
EVEN THOUGH NO RAIN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND
CONTINUED INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ABOVE 850 MB. A TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD BRING SOME LIMITED RELIEF FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
THAT SHOULD BRING SOME INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. 0-2K FEET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY
FROM 5 KNOTS AT THE SFC TO 20 KNOTS AT 2K FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT THE SURFACE AFTER 08/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET IN OPEN WATERS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOCAL SEAS MAY BE HIGHER WHERE WINDS FUNNEL
AROUND THE ISLANDS...AND WINDS WILL REACH UP T0 18 TO 21 KNOTS AT
TIMES TODAY...DECREASING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC RETREATS SOMEWHAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 92 78 / 0 10 0 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 10 10 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N33W EXTENDS A RIDGE W-SW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1007 MB
NEAR 10N75W ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP...IS RESULTING IN FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SURFACE DATA ALONG WITH THE
MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 20-30 KT ELY
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SOME BY SAT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES S ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. E OF THIS RIDGE...
THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM HISPANIOLA TO
EASTERN PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
OF NOTE...AT 1030 AM AST...THE TEMPERATURE AT LMM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REACHED 90S WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS IS THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90S OR MORE AT THE AIRPORT.
2:05PM
June 08, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… A High Pressure Ridge is across the northern Caribbean.
Comment
The High Pressure Ridge is expected to remain across the northern Caribbean for the next three days generating windy conditions especially across southern parishes.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning/Afternoon... Mainly sunny and windy.
Tonight … Mainly fair with windy conditions over southern parishes.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat… Mainly sunny day except for partly cloudy conditions over sections of western and central parishes in the afternoon. Windy over southern parishes.
Sun… Mainly sunny and windy during the day, mainly fair during the night.
Mon… Mainly sunny during the morning. Windy during the afternoon with isolated showers.
Regionally… A Trough is generating cloudy conditions over portions of the eastern Caribbean.
NEWS RELEASE
**** STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY ****
A strong High Pressure System centred over the northern Atlantic Ocean continues to generate strong winds across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Projections are that, gale force winds exceeding 50 km/h should affect southern parishes, increasing to near 60 km/h over hilly terrain, this afternoon and Friday.
Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution, as gusty winds and rough seas are expected over inshore and offshore areas of the south coast.
vtj
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, June 8, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will maintain a relatively stable atmosphere over the islands throughout the next 48 hours. Low level clouds moving across the area will result in occasional cloudy skies with only brief passing showers.
A slight improvement in sea conditions is anticipated due to a gradual reduction in wind speeds. Swells are expected to peak near 8.0 feet through this weekend. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coast, are advised to continue to exercise caution.
An Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward near 30 km/h.
Date:
FRIDAY 8TH JUNE 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS
Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE
Outlook:
FOR SAT. AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY SUN. IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND INLAND AREAS.
OF NOTE...AT 1030 AM AST...THE TEMPERATURE AT LMM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REACHED 90S WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS IS THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90S OR MORE AT THE AIRPORT.
And here is this afternoon's discussion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE REGION IN A DRY AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TO
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH LEADING EDGE NOW
NEAR 40 WEST. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS THIS WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING TRADES
WILL CONTINUE BRING SHALLOW PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...HOWEVER A FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIMIT THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSE
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY INDUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AT LEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE THE TRADE WIND FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREAFTER ANOTHER DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED AREA OF SAHARAN DUST/SAL WILL QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER TIST AND TISX THROUGH AT LEAST 09/12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 10 0 10 10
STT 79 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 10
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA TO THE
SE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN CENTRAL AMERICA...COLOMBIA...AND THE
WATERS TO THE N. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONLY ACROSS PANAMA AND COAST RICA WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
IS COVERED BY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC TO HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
AIR ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THAT AREA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING
30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE STRONG TRADEWIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND TO OUR NORTH FROM
THE HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A TROUGH OUT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A JET WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
MAINTAIN EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE...NOT YET OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS NOT EXPECTED
BEFORE THE FOLLOWING SUD NAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON NEXRAD RADAR
AND EVEN FEWER WERE NOTED OVER LAND. THESE TRACKED WEST OVER CEIBA
AND NAGUABO EARLIER THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTERLY THAN NOTED YESTERDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STABILITY IS GREATER AND MOISTURE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...INTENSE HEATING OVER LAND AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW
LOOKS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS MINIMAL
AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY HOMOGENEOUS UP THROUGH 22 KFT. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE FAIRLY GOOD LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. MOS HAS
BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES TOO LOW ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT WITH WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY UNTIL
MONDAY...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS ONLY 1 DEGREE ON THE NORTH COAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN...IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND A TURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...HAVE RAISED TEMPS ON THE NORTH COAST 2
DEGREES FOR A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES AT THE LMM AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SHOWERS...BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY DUSTY AIR FROM
THE SAHARA. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...BUT OTHERWISE THE OVERALL RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED IN NATURE...WITH SOME AREAS...INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...RECEIVING LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES. 0-2K FEET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM 5 KNOTS AT THE SFC TO 15 KNOTS AT 2K
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT THE SURFACE
AFTER 09/12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 09/16Z AND 09/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CATEGORY TODAY BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
6 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 79 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 78 89 80 / 10 10 10 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND TO OUR NORTH FROM
THE HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A TROUGH OUT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A JET WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
MAINTAIN EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE...NOT YET OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS NOT EXPECTED
BEFORE THE FOLLOWING SUD NAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON NEXRAD RADAR
AND EVEN FEWER WERE NOTED OVER LAND. THESE TRACKED WEST OVER CEIBA
AND NAGUABO EARLIER THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTERLY THAN NOTED YESTERDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STABILITY IS GREATER AND MOISTURE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...INTENSE HEATING OVER LAND AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW
LOOKS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS MINIMAL
AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY HOMOGENEOUS UP THROUGH 22 KFT. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE FAIRLY GOOD LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. MOS HAS
BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES TOO LOW ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT WITH WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY UNTIL
MONDAY...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS ONLY 1 DEGREE ON THE NORTH COAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN...IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND A TURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...HAVE RAISED TEMPS ON THE NORTH COAST 2
DEGREES FOR A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES AT THE LMM AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SHOWERS...BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY DUSTY AIR FROM
THE SAHARA. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...BUT OTHERWISE THE OVERALL RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED IN NATURE...WITH SOME AREAS...INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...RECEIVING LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES. 0-2K FEET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM 5 KNOTS AT THE SFC TO 15 KNOTS AT 2K
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT THE SURFACE
AFTER 09/12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 09/16Z AND 09/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CATEGORY TODAY BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
6 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 79 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 78 89 80 / 10 10 10 20
Link
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE TO OVER
CUBA NEAR 23N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE
FROM 20N76W TO 10N82W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO NEAR
09N81W. THIS TROUGHING IS LARGELY GENERATING AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
75W-83W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH ALONG 19N AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N62W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MOSTLY DRY AIR E OF 70W WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. OF SIGNIFICANCE OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION...TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 64W-82W REACHING 30 KT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 9, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will continue to maintain a relatively dry and stable atmosphere over the islands throughout the weekend. Thereafter, by Monday, an interruption in the dry spell is expected as a tropical wave arrives in the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Meanwhile, shallow moisture in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing only brief passing showers.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate through this weekend with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coast, are advised to continue to exercise caution.
An Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward near 24 km/h.
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, SATURDAY, 9TH JUNE, 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMD MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.
FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS:
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, HOT AND HUMID WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...GENERALLY FAIR TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN TSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...FALLING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SEAS RUNNING: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY: 93°F 34°C LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT: 77°F 25°C.
SUNSET: 7:59 PM SUNRISE: 6:19 AM SUNDAY.
MOONRISE: 12:23 AM SUNDAY MOONSET: 12:30 PM SUNDAY.
HIGH TIDE: 12:44 PM LOW TIDE: 6:52 PM HIGH TIDE: 1:03 AM SUNDAY
OUTLOOK FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR SUNDAY: A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOT AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER: GREGORY D THOMPSON
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