nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 03:47 PM GMT del 26 Marzo 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 83.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 73.0 °F |
| Umidità: | 71% |
| Vento: | 6.0 mph from the SSO |
| Raffiche di vento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST del 06 Febbraio 2013
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Barbados Weather
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1600Z SATURDAY 26th TO 1000Z SUNDAY 27TH MAY 2012
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx: THIS AFTERNOON AND TONGHT: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy and breezy with a few showers
Winds: E - ESE at 15 to 35km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1.5 - 2.5 metres.
Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise some caution.
Meteorologist: Cameron Burke
ISSUED AT: 10:03AM
Date:Saturday 26th of May 2012
Meteorologist: O. Lovell
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Mostly fair,hazy and breezy with the isolated
shower favouring hilly areas.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 04:50PM
Date:Friday 25th of May 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 06.42am 08.12pm LOW 12.05am 01.31pm
Scarborough HIGH 06.37am 07.57pm LOW 12.33am 01.35pm
Weather Forecast
for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Sunday midday 12:00 l.t., May 27,
2012.
Issued: Saturday May 26, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00
UTC).
Weather:
Today
through Sunday midday: Partly cloudy, occasionally mostly cloudy with
a chance of isolated showers.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:09 and sunset at 18:56.
Winds: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39
km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong; force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis:
A tropical wave over the Eastern Caribbean continues to move
westward and is expected to pass with most of
it's activity to the North and South of the islands. Moisture
associated with this system will spread across the local area to produce
some cloudiness and possible isolated showers over
parts of Bonaire and Curaçao. Otherwise,
the present strong wind flow results in a higher wave
action over the exposed waters.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters.
Waves will be somewhat higher over the northern open waters and
passages between islands. Boaters are advised to be cautious.Special features: Subtropical Storm "Beryl" formed in the southwestern Atlantic and is moving toward the southwest. This storm doesn't form any threat to our
islands.
Outlook until Monday midday: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a few passing showers.
Forecaster: H. M. Lauffer.
The next
weather forecast will be issued on Saturday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC).
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL NEAR
32N76W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSE TO THE
ISLE OF YOUTH AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA...LIKELY DUE TO
WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AIDED BY DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE SE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRESH TRADES COVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS MIGRATING
THROUGH 71W...BUT WILL SHIFT W AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINDS AND SEAS.
2:05PM
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N... AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...N
COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 17N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SUN MAY 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO REAL
CHANGE UNTIL SOMETIME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 68W.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF DRY AIR
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. GPS MET DATA
AT ISABELA AND CHRISTIANSTED CONFIRMED THIS...SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. EXPECTING A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON AND A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG EAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS
DURING EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
AS AN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT GENERALLY WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY DUE TO WINDS OF AROUND 18 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 20 20 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY DRY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL TO PREVIOUS THINKING...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
TRY TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...
TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING MID-WEEK...AS
RIDGE SHIFTS AND WEAKENS A BIT...ALLOWING FOR WEAKER CAPPING AND
BETTER VENTILATION. ADDITIONALLY...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA...ENHANCING THE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RE-BUILDS LOCALLY AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...
RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED AND LOCALIZED...ALBEIT
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS
DAY4/DAY5...OPTED TO LEAVE HAZE OUT OF THE GRIDS...TO AVOID AND
FLIP-FLOP IN FORECASTS AND ALLOW BETTER TIMING OF ONSET AND
LENGTH OF HAZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THRU 17Z WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A TSTM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY WWD AND MAY IMPACT TJMZ. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM
AS CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
VCSH. STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUE WITH JBQ
BEING THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHRA/TSRA AND THUS CIG
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 88 75 / 20 20 40 20
STT 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 20 20
I'm sorry that i was not able to post over the last couple of days...i was a bit busy
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER MOST OF CUBA. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST TUE MAY 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY FRI.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL THEN ESTABLISH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
36 HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT IS FCST TO INCREASE WED AND THU
AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 50W. FOR
TODAY...ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM YDAY IS THE STEERING FLOW WITH
0-6KM MEAN FLOW MORE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND FROM THE
SOUTH ON WED. EXPECT A BIT MORE ACTIVITY WED AND ESPECIALLY THU
AS MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER. SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPECT TO SEE
DRYING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI WITH ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT WHILE THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVELS DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY THERE IS A TON OF MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MOISTURE WITH 500-100 MB RH NEARLY SATURARED. SO SKY GRIDS CARRY A
LOT OF CLOUD CVR BUT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW A
STRONG CAP WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 20C AND EXTREMELY LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT H85 IN EXCESS OF 20C BUT WITH SATURATED ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE 500 MB. AGAIN...SKY CVR GRIDS CARRY A LOT OF CLOUD CVR BUT
NO WX DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS AND STRONG CAP. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME DUST HAZE WITH POSSIBLE SIG REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. NOT AS DRY
SUN INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AS AREA REMAINS
UNDER UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN AMPLIFLYING TUTT
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC/SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONT. MVFR AND LCL MTN OBSCURATIONS PSBL
AGAIN IN AFTERNOON OVER PR INTERIOR IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST PR QUARTER. ELSEWHERE A STRAY SHRA MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR
FOR TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND BLO FL200 TO GRADUALLY
TURN SE TODAY AND EVEN S SOME LVLS ON WED...BUT REMAIN BLO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE WED AND THU WITH SCT TSRA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DUST HAZE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS. HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE WED AND THU BUT RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY IN THAT AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP FRI AND ESPECIALLY
SAT UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID 90S.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE FIRE RISK
SOMEWHAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 76 / 20 0 20 20
STT 85 79 85 79 / 20 10 10 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N82W TO 16N85W IS HELPING PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21W BETWEEN
80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND TOWARDS THE S FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007
MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
73W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE
TRPCL ATLC IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 64W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AND COULD MOVE OVER LAND
AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00AM on Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave are affecting the southern portion of the island chain resulting in cloudiness and showers. Elsewhere, mostly fair skies are expected under the influence of a ridge of high pressure.
Sea conditions will remain moderate throughout the remainder of the week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to continue to exercise caution.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
TUESDAY 29TH MAY 2012
GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MILD TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SMALL CRFAT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN TSTMS
WINDS:SE/S 10/15KNOTS
SEAS:2/4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 88°F 31°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 75°F 24°C
SUNRISE: 6:20 AM MOONRISE: 1:58 PM LOW TIDE 8:44 AM
SUNSET : 7:55 PM MOONSET: 2:13 AM HIGH TIDE 3:00 PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WEATHER: SUNNY AND WARM WITH FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS:SE/S 10/15 KNOTS
SEAS: 2/4FT
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
WEATHER: SUNNY AND WARM WITH ISOL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WIND: S'LY 10KNOTS
SEAS: 1/3FT
FCSTR. N. ARMSTRONG
May 29, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the western Caribbean.
Comment
Comment… The Trough is expected to weaken on Wednesday as a High Pressure Ridge builds across the region.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning…Partly cloudy.
This afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over sections of central and western parishes.
Tonight… Partly cloudy.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed… Scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms over central and western parishes. Windy during the afternoon.
Thu… Mostly cloudy and windy day with isolated thunderstorms.
Fri… Morning showers over sections of northern parishes. Isolated showers during the afternoon over central and western parishes.
Regionally… Tropical Depression Beryl remains over Georgia,
about 15 kilometres northwest of Valdosta.
cdj
Just in checking in on our weather. Looking good for a night of fishing!
Thanks again to both of you, Nigel and TWPR. Always great info when we need it.
Lin
Thanks again for visiting...it's good to know that myself and Tropicsweatherpr can provide you with well needed info
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
82W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-21N
BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER N...RAIN WITH
PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MADE SOME CORRECTIONS NOW
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE FOR TODAY AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
BARBADOS THIS MORNING. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
QUITE WELL SHOWING A PW MINIMA BETWEEN THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SCT ACROSS NW PR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS AND KEPT SCT POPS ACROSS THE USVI AND THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY THERE. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND
00Z FRI WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD OVER 2.0 INCHES...TROPICAL WAVE IS GOING TO BE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG 65W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE ERN THIRD OF PR...USVI AND SURROUNDING
WATERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DENSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO
OPAQUE MOST OF THE SKY NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY END UP BEING
DETRIMENTAL TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE ISLANDS WITH STRONG IF NOT POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS NMRS TSRA WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS WITH TOPS TO -80C. STRONG SHEAR AND RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTION NEAR 15 KTS WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE ERN
THIRD OF PR MAY STILL HOWEVER EXPERIENCE SOME FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE RAPID RESPONSE TIME OF THE RIVERS IN THAT AREA.
RAPID DRYING WILL OVERTAKE THE LOCAL ON FRI BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TO PACK A PUNCH LIKE IT IS EXPECTED FOR THE ERN THIRD OF PR
AND USVI ON THU. THEN SAHARAN AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AND LIKELY LAST UNTIL SUN. NOTE THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE INDICATING H85 TEMPS OVER 20C AND EXTREMELY LARGE
H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 20C INDICATING A STRONGLY CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE AND TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO THE
FCST FOR DRY WX FRI NIGHT AND SAT STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH
DUST HAZE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA ATTM MAINLY OVR ATL WATERS BUT DRIER AIR
ARRIVING FROM SE...TO PERSIST THRU MORNING. MVFR WITH LCL MTN OBSC
XPCTD AGAIN THIS AFT BUT FEWER THAN LAST FEW DAYS. SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA PRIMARILY N/NW PR. WND BLO FL200 SE 5-15 KT BUT INCR 15-20 KT
TONIGHT/THU AHEAD OF APPR TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. SQUALLY WX IS LIKELY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. NMRS STRONG TSRA
ARE LIKELY WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 89 76 / 20 20 70 60
STT 80 78 81 78 / 30 40 70 80
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 77W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO COVER MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA S OF 12N ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA
AT 9N75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AHEAD OF
A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 63W. MOISTURE IN THE
WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
8:05AM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Thursday midday 12:00 l.t., May 31, 2012.
Issued: Wednesday May 30, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy and generally dry.
Tonight through Thursday midday: Partly cloudy with chance of a local shower.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:09 and sunset at 18:57.
Winds: East to Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally, strong to possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: No significant changes are expected in the current weather over the local area during the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, an isolated passing shower could develop over Bonaire and Curaçao during the overnight and early morning hours. Otherwise, the current strong wind flow results in a higher than usual wave action over the exposed waters. Furthermore, a tropical wave is approaching the Southeastern Caribbean sea but will not reach the local region until Friday.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. The highest waves are over the Northern open waters and passages between the islands. Marine users are advised to take this into account.
Special features: Tropical Depression "Beryl" was located near the South Carolina coast, over the Southeast continental United States, and doesn't pose any threat to the local islands.
Outlook until Friday midday: Generally partly cloudy with a shower during the morning.
Forecaster: Abraham / D. E Barkmeyer
The next weather forecast will be issued on Wednesday at 18:00 l.t. (22:00 UTC).
Date:
WEDNESDAY 30TH MAY 2012
Time:
5:30 AM
General Situation:
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION.
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY WITH SUNNY PERIODS TODAY AND CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT; A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING THEN OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 5 - 15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY.
Outlook:
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING: CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
Temperatures:
Highs (today)
Lows (tonight)
Coast
31° C
87° F
Coast
25o C
77o F
Inland
33° C
91° F
Inland
23o C
73° F
Hills
26° C
78° F
Hills
20o C
68o F
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1600Z WEDNESDAY 30th TO 1000Z THURSDAY 31st MAY 2012
Synopsis: A weak tropical wave is affecting the island.
Wx: AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Over the southern Windwards,mostly cloudy to overcast with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
ELSE WHERE: Fair to partly cloudy wifh a few scattered showers.
Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 to 35km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water with swells 1.5 - 2.0m.
Meteorologist: Randolph Mascoll
Thank you very much...I'm from the Caribbean (Jamaica)
Hopefully the flooding was limited in N.C. and most of the US!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE ALOFT
WILL FLATTEN A BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR
55 WEST WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EMBEDDED WILL APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE SEVEN DAYS. THIS FLOW WILL
DRAW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SURGE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PEAKING AROUND 2.15 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST SAHARAN AIR REACHING THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL HELP
TO LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS W AND NW PR AFTER
30/18Z...CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...VCTS WERE LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TSRA...VCSH WERE
USED INSTEAD AS THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA. CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL 23Z...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. SQUALLY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POSSIBLE STARTING MIDDAY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 87 / 20 70 60 60
STT 78 87 78 82 / 40 70 80 80
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N89W
15N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE TROUGH AT
18N91W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA N OF 20N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO
NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 83W-86W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST THU MAY 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 59 WEST OR JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...IS INTERACTING WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS TO JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TOPICAL ATLANTIC AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FURTHER EAST...THE LEADING EDGE OF SAL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND
WAS NOW NEAR 53 WEST BUT EXTENDS FURTHER EAST OUT TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ENHANCED CONVECTION INDUCED BY THE
INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY
AND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE ALONG ITS
NORTHERN FRINGES TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION
AND DIFFLUENCE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING... WILL
PRODUCE A GOOD ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE VERY EXPLOSIVE AND COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS... STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS.
LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS LARGE AREA OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRAIL THE
ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE BY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BUT VERY HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
ACTIVE WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ACROSS THE USVI TERMINALS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
GENERALLY TO THE NNW AROUND 10 KNOTS. STABILITY INDICES ARE QUITE
LOW WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -8C AND SHOWALTER AROUND -3C
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
WOULD BE MAIN THREAT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MOST AIRPORTS
XCPT JPS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WAS
INCLUDED FOR JBQ WHERE CHANCES OF TSRA SEEM PRETTY LIKELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 60 20 20 10
STT 86 77 86 77 / 60 20 20 10
Cayman Islands National Meteorological Service
Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers and possible afternoon thunder.
Winds over open sea
Winds will be southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Sea State
Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Temperature
High: 86°F | 30°C
Low: 76°F | 24°C
ISSUED AT: 10:13AM
Date:Thursday 31st of May 2012
Meteorologist: A. Nancoo
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Variably cloudy with scattered showers and the
isolated thundershower.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS: Slight
WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:32PM
Date:Wednesday 30th of May 2012
Port of Spain HIGH ***** 12.37pm LOW 06.08am 06.08pm
Scarborough HIGH ***** 12.23pm LOW 06.05am 06.14pm
The Eastern Caribbean Forecast valid up to 8am Friday 1st June 2012.
Wx: The effects of a tropical wave will be felt over the southern half of the region later today and tonight as it moves through the islands. Skies over the Windward Islands, Barbados and Trinidad will be cloudy occasionally with scattered showers. There is also the chance for the outbreak of isolated thunderstorms. A weak high pressure ridge will keep a dryer atmosphere over the northern half of the region. Conditions in most cases will be sunny. But there is still the chance of a few brief, scattered showers today and tonight.
Winds: East and east southeast 12 - 15 Kts today with lighter spells overnight.
Seas: Slight to moderate; wells 3 - 5 ft or 1 - 1 .5 M.
Barometric Pressure: Near normal.
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Llewellyn Dyer-Forecaster
Forecast issued at 4:51 AM,GMT-04:00 on 31/05/2012
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN
MEXICO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND NEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF GUATEMALA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 81W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 18N79W
BEYOND 26N79W BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 83W/84W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W.
2:05PM
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY. AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUST WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN FACT...TJSJ 01/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.16
INCHES AND THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES OF MORE
THAN 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING RAPIDLY TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND...AS AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH
SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SAHARAN DUST BY TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE BY LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT VERY HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 01/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 01/16Z-01/22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
TJMZ AND TJBQ. LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 25K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 0 10
STT 88 77 88 77 / 30 0 0 0
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 82W OVERNIGHT HAS
DIMINISHED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LIFTED NE
INTO THE SE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 14N79W WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH SLY FLOW OPENING UP INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SAL BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE NE
CARIBBEAN.
8:05PM
June 01, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean.
Comment
The High Pressure Ridge should be the dominant feature over the next three days.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Mainly sunny and windy.
This Afternoon… Mainly sunny and windy except for isolated thunderstorms over sections of western parishes.
Tonight … Becoming fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat… Partly cloudy over eastern parishes during the morning. Windy with isolated thunderstorms
over some hilly areas during the afternoon.
Sun… Mainly sunny and windy
Mon… Mainly sunny except for isolated showers over hilly areas during the afternoon.
Regionally… A Trough is generating cloudy conditions across the eastern Caribbean.
ram
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Saturday midday 12:00 l.t., June 2, 2012.
Issued: Friday June 1, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today Generally partly cloudy and mainly dry.
Tonight through Saturday morning:Partly cloudy; temporarily mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:09 and sunset at 18:57.
Winds: East to Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally, strong to possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: A tropical wave was located this morning over the Eastern Caribbean area and is moving West. This system is expected to move across the local area later today. Most of the shower activity related to the wave however, are to the South of our islands. Therefore, no significant precipitation is expected over the local islands during this forecast period. Otherwise, the current strong air flow continues to result in a higher than usual wave action over the exposed waters.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. The highest waves are over the Northern open waters and passages between the islands. Mariners are advised to be aware of this event.
Significant Tropical Systems: Today, June 1, is the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developed already this year before this day over the Atlantic Ocean. The remaining names prepared for this season's named storms are: Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Hélène, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William. The Meteorological Department Curaçao recently issued a press release that contains, among others, more detailed information about the seasonal outlook for 2012.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Sunday midday: Partly cloudy with a local shower.
Forecaster: Figueroa
The next weather forecast will be issued on Friday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC).
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, June 1, 2012
A ridge of high pressure has established itself across the area. This will result in a gradual drying out of the atmosphere together with an improvement in conditions across the area. Saharan dust is also expected to result in a reduction in visibility across the island during the next 24 hours.
Sea conditions will remain moderate during the next 24 hours. However, an increase in wind speed is expected to result in a slight increase in swells during today. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to exercise caution.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
FRIDAY 01ST JUNE 2012.
WARNINGS: RESIDENTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IN LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD SAFE GUARD THEMSELVES FROM POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS EVENTS.
GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY, HUMID AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMP: 88°F 31°C OVERNIGHT LOW: 73°F 23°C
SUNRISE: 6:20AM SUNSET: 7:56PM
MOONRISE: 5:07PM MOONSET: 4:28AM SAT.
LOW TIDE: 11:30AM & 12:24AM SAT. HIGH TIDE: 5:56PM
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS GRADUALLY CLEARING BY EVENING.
WINDS: SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS RUNNING: 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY:
WEATHER: VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SEAS RUNNING: LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: DESPITE TWO EARLY STORMS THIS YEAR, THE TROPICS ARE QUIET ON THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THE END.
I.V.M.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CONSIDERABLY AS WELL AS BRINGING HAZY
AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT...A DRIER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A RIDGE
ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NAAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY. TODAY...THE HEAT INDEX WENT
UP TO AS MUCH AS 107 DEGREES IN PONCE AND 100 IN SAN JUAN WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE REACHING 91 DEGREES
IN PONCE AND 93 DEGREES IN SAN JUAN. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...SATURDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST AND SUNDAY HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO BUT
WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
AFTER THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY...A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT
01/22Z. SOUTHEAST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY UNTIL 01/22Z
THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 0 10 10
STT 77 88 77 89 / 10 10 0 10
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012
...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON...
THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A NEAR
NORMAL ONE. SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FROM NOAA CALL FOR A NEAR NORMAL
SEASON AT THIS TIME. NOAA`S FORECAST PREDICTS 9 TO 15 TROPICAL STORMS...4
TO 8 HURRICANES AND 1 TO 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. THE HISTORICAL LONG
TERM AVERAGE IS ABOUT 12 TROPICAL STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3
MAJOR HURRICANES.
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS IN WITNESSING FEW MAJOR HURRICANES. IN RECENT
MEMORY...MAJOR HURRICANES GEORGES IN 1998 AND LUIS AND MARILYN IN
1995...AFFECTED PARTS OR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND FLOOD DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE BIG ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO HAS NOT HAD A DIRECT HIT FROM A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE FOR OVER 70 YEARS. THAT IS ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS THAT
THESE ISLANDS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 4 OR
5).
ACCORDING TO NOAA RECORDS...THE HURRICANE SEASONS SPANNING
1995-2011 COMPRISED ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OF HURRICANE
ACTIVITY IN HISTORY. MOST HURRICANE RESEARCHERS AND SCIENTISTS
BELIEVE THAT WE ARE IN AN ERA OF INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY. THIS
ALSO MEANS INCREASED PROBABILITY OF LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE
CARIBBEAN REGION.
SEASONS WITH NORMAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AVERAGE ONE OR TWO
LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND ONE
IN THE CARIBBEAN.
AS NOTED...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FROM 1995-2011 HAS BEEN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES OF 14 TROPICAL STORMS...8
HURRICANES AND 4 MAJOR HURRICANES...THE REAL PROBLEM IS NOT HOW
MANY TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES DEVELOP...BUT WHERE THESE
STORMS TRACK. DURING THE LAST FOURTEEN YEARS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO HAVE RECEIVED THE UNWELCOME VISITS OF HURRICANE
HUGO IN 1989...LUIS AND MARILYN IN 1995...BERTHA AND HORTENSE IN
1996...GEORGES IN 1998...JOSE AND LENNY IN 1999...DEBBY IN
2000...JEANNE IN 2004 AND OLGA IN 2007 JUST TO NAME A FEW. IN 2011
TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO IN 2011...TWO
OTHER SYSTEMS ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA...TROPICAL STORMS EMILY AND
MARIA...THIS STORMS ALSO BROUGHT MAJOR FLOODING TO PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HURRICANE SPAWNED DISASTERS OCCUR EVEN IN YEARS WITH NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL ACTIVITY. HURRICANES DONNA OF 1960...AND DAVID AND
FREDERIC OF 1979...ARE REMINDERS OF THE DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS THAT CAN OCCUR DURING A SEASON OF NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
ACTIVITY.
NEW SATELLITES AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ALLOW US TO MONITOR AND
TRACK DISTURBANCES EMERGING OUT OF AFRICA OR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WELL BEFORE THEY REACH OUR LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BE PREPARED WELL IN ADVANCE.
LETS USE THE MONTH OF JUNE TO PREPARE OR REVISE OUR FAMILY EMERGENCY
PLAN...PREPARE A DISASTER SUPPLIES KIT AND STOCK UP ON NECESSARY
NON-PERISHABLE FOOD SUPPLIES.
SAFEGUARDING THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO IS A TEAM EFFORT. PREPARATION AND COORDINATION BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE COMMONWEALTH OF PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT (PREMA)...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TERRITORIAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY (VITEMA)...STATE AND MUNICIPAL
GOVERNMENTS...UNIVERSITIES AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR ARE CRITICAL TO
MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES. EVERYONE MUST BE PREPARED
TWPR:
Thank you for that very interesting article!
Lindy
Lindy
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N71W. W OF
80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN A 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N91W IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
IS ONGOING THIS EVENING. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA AS
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 65W.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT JUN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...VERY DRIER...HAZY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY...AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND INDUCING ALSO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR
THIS MORNING. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF
1.5 INCHES OR LESS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM...ALTHOUGH
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS
FLYING AREA. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 0 0 10 0
STT 88 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N67W. ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. GIVEN
THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-120 NM EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W ALONG THE E
COAST OF THE YUCATCAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL BELIZE. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS CENTERED 120 NM SSE OF COZUMEL WHERE LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ACTIVE AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH WAS OCCURRING
NEAR PUERTO CORTES HONDURAS HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
20N57W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN
65W-80W THIS EVENING.
8:05AM
Date:
SATURDAY 2nd JUNE 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY WARM AND UNSTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE MOIST TOMORROW.
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY WITH SUNNY BREAKS TODAY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY INLAND TODAY, THEN OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE AT TIMES AND ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS.
Winds:
EAST 5 - 15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY.
Outlook:
FOR SUN. AND SUN. NIGHT IS FOR CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST.
Temperatures:
Highs (today)
Lows (tonight)
Coast
32° C
90° F
Coast
24o C
75o F
Inland
35° C
95° F
Inland
22o C
72° F
Hills
27° C
80° F
Hills
20o C
68o F
Tides:
High:
7:31 AM
Low:
2:55 PM
High:
9:13 PM
Low:
2:08 AM (SUN.)
Sunrise :
5:17 AM (SUN.)
Moonrise:
4:46 PM
Sunset:
6:24 PM
Moonset:
4:21 AM (SUN.)
Forecaster:
M. GENTLE.
ISSUED AT: 10:01AM
Date:Saturday 02nd of June 2012
Meteorologist: A. Alexander
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands:
Hazy with periods of brief isolated showers and a
strong breeze with speed in excess of 46 Kmh at
times.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES
Mostly fair and hazy.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:10PM
Date:Friday 01st of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 1:35am 2:46pm LOW 8:08am 4:05pm
Scarborough HIGH 1:18am 2:23pm LOW 7:57am 7:59pm
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1000Z SATURDAY 2nd TO 1000Z SUNDAY 3rd JUNE 2012
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx: TODAY AND TONIGHT: Over the southern Windwards ,it will be partly cloudy and hazy with brief scattered showers. Elsewhere,fair to partly cloudy and hazy with a few brief scattered showers.
Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 to 35km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1-5-2.0m.Small craft advisory is in effect for reduce visibility in dense Saharan dust.
Meteorologist: Randolph Mascoll
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N85W 16N81W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N49W TO
17N59W...PASSING BEYOND THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N65W...AND ULTIMATELY TOWARD LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 7N74W IN COLOMBIA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N83W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND THE 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
66W AND 80W.
2:05PM
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. W OF
80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TOWARDS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 80W-86W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHER AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO OVER
NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 60W-80W THIS
EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE FAIR WEATHER IS THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 64W.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...DRY...HAZY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS.
AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF 1.5
INCHES OR LESS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEREFORE NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS
FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN 6 TO 8
SM...BUT SOMETIMES MAY REACH 5 SM. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AT AROUND 10 TO 20
KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 78 / 0 0 10 10
STT 89 77 88 77 / 0 10 10 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
83W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HONDURAS NEAR
18N86W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND BARBADOS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
2:05PM
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