nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 03:47 PM GMT del 26 Marzo 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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Tropical Blogs
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 83.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 73.0 °F |
| Umidità: | 71% |
| Vento: | 6.0 mph from the SSO |
| Raffiche di vento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST del 06 Febbraio 2013
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National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W IN
COLOMBIA...BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COLOMBIA
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 6N...AND IN PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, July 17, 2012
The Atlantic High Pressure will continue to be the dominant feature influencing weather conditions across the Eastern Caribbean over the next 24 to 48 hours. As a result, partly cloudy skies with slightly hazy conditions will prevail. However, low level cloud patches will account for occasional periods of cloudiness and a few scattered showers today.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate throughout this week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet, mainly along the eastern coast of the island. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
A tropical wave is located in the Eastern Atlantic and another in the Central Atlantic. Both waves are moving westward near 28 km/h.
Date:
TUESDAY 17TH JULY 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
EASTERLY AIRFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY...THEN A TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS INCREASING MOISTURE TOMORROW
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
Winds:
EAST 10 -20 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE.
Outlook:
FOR WED. AND WED. NIGHT IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS AS A TROICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE COUNTRY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE JUL 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REALIGN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS EMBEDDED LOW MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS AND THEN WEST OF
THE FA. A WEAK INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE REALIGNING TUTT SHOULD BE IN A PRETTY DECENT
LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT PROBABLY THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK INDUCED LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TUTT INDUCED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
AN ADDITIONAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND IF SO...
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAMP UP THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IN THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND
SAHARAN DUST SHROUDED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS SW PR WHICH MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJMZ BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO IT WAS KEPT OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...DECREASING DURING
THE NIGHT. SAHARAN DUST IS DECREASING AND PASSING SHRA MAY RETURN
TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN AND
AROUND TIST...TISX..TNCM...AND TKPK.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AND PROBABLY BEYOND. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 91 / 40 40 50 50
STT 79 89 79 89 / 40 30 50 50
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA
INCLUDING BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NRN NICARAGUA. A
STRONG CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO OVER WRN CUBA
WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
POSSIBLY TIED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW
OVER NRN COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
20-25 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TO EITHER SIDE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE
MOVING WWD FURTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST WED JUL 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...
AND YET ANOTHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH/EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS AIDING IN CREATING A
PREVAILING MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST IS STILL FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT. CLOUDINESS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
AND DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER ISOLATED SPOTS IN CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AND TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH
A LEAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST AN EASTERLY WIND
SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT THE SURFACE...QUICKLY TRAILING THE WAVE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING A DRIER AIR MASS WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AGAIN
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THESE EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS/TROPICAL
WAVES ACTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE SO FAR NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION IN ISOLATED SPOTS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OT THE TUTT...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ONLY BRIEF PERIODS ON MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHRA ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 40 60 60 50
STT 90 80 89 81 / 40 60 60 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W FROM 16N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W. PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. THIS
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W TO 22N78W
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.
A SEPARATE BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
15N70W 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA IN COASTAL COLOMBIA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN COASTAL PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND IN THE
COLOMBIA EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, July 18, 2012
An upper level trough will produce some weak instability across the Eastern Caribbean today. As a result, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a few scattered showers can be expected across the area.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate for the remainder of this week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
A tropical wave located east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to move through the island chain by tomorrow. Another wave located in the Central Atlantic is expected to approach the area by Sunday.
General Conditions:
Generally fair conditions are to prevail over the Cayman area during the next 24 hours.
Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers.
Winds over open sea
Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots.
Sea State
Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Temperature
High: 90°F | 32°C
Low: 80°F | 27°C
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA
INCLUDING BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF
BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE
ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS TIED TO A MOSTLY DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SW SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER
LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
20-25 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TO EITHER SIDE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE
MOVING WWD OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 AM AST THU JUL 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EXTENDS
NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...
AS THE TUTT WILL SHIFTS FURTHER WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS
NOW CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND TRAILING THE
WAVE AXIS WHICH WAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE WAVE IS AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WITH HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST PARTICULATES SPREAD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. EARLIER ASCAT PASS 19/01Z ALSO INDICATED A WIND
SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG 40/41W WITHIN THE SAL AND TRAILING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SURGE INITIALIZED WELL WITH GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED EASTERLY JET WITH A MAX WIND SPEED IN SAME LOCATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS JUST AHEAD OF THE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THROUGH OUT THE DAY EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS WITH INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE TUTT PULLS FURTHER
WEST SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY
WIND SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KTS OR SO WILL TRAIL THE WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PRECEDING A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
MASS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AGAIN THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO LINGER TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ENHANCED TUTT INDUCED CONVECTION
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN HOWEVER BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE...AS WELL AS THE WIND SURGE
WHICH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST A HIGH INFLUX
OF SAHARAN DUST BY SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ADJUST OVERALL WEATHER AND POPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DEPENDING ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL
19/15Z...SPREADING OVER USVI AFT 19/08Z AND OVER PR BTW 19/15Z AND
19/23Z. MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS AT THE SFC WILL RANGE BTW 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 78 / 60 50 60 50
STT 88 81 89 80 / 50 50 50 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15N60W...AND 11N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND 63W FROM SAINT VINCENT NEAR 13N
TO 16N NEAR GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W...FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N76W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COASTAL PANAMA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N
TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...FROM COASTAL PANAMA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Thursday, July 19, 2012
Moisture and instability associated with a westward moving tropical wave will produce cloudiness, showers and possible thunderstorms across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, a gradual drying out of the atmosphere is anticipated resulting in occasional cloudiness, scattered showers, hazy and breezy conditions.
Residents in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise caution.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate for the remainder of this week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
Meanwhile, another tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic is expected to approach the area by late Saturday into Sunday.
July 19, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… A Trough is moving across Jamaica.
Comment
The Trough should move towards the west and away from Jamaica today.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Isolated showers and thunderstorms over some northern areas.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern parishes.
Tonight … Partly cloudy over hilly areas.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Fri… Isolated morning showers over eastern parishes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over western parishes during the afternoon.
Sat… Partly cloudy morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over hilly areas of most parishes during the afternoon.
Sun… Isolated morning showers over eastern parishes. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over western parishes during the afternoon.
Regionally… A Tropical Wave is generating cloudy conditions over
sections of the eastern Caribbean.
ram
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WATERS TO THE E TO 85W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ACROSS SRN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS JAMAICA.
THESE ARE LIKELY TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
COVERS MUCH OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF THE COUNTRY TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN
COLOMBIA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF 66W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA NEAR
20N78W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO EITHER SIDE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING
MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
TRAILS BEHIND THE WAVE AND WILL LIKELY HIT THE ERN CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST FRI JUL 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUED
TO BUILD SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST ACROSS CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THIS PATTERN
IS STILL CREATING WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PART
OF THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW EXITING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 67/68 WEST WITH AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG ITS
NORTHERN AND TRAILING EDGE. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST QUICKLY FOLLOWS
AND EXTENDS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE EXITING WAVE IS CREATING A WEAK DIFFLUENT AREA WHICH
IS AIDING IN ENHANCING LOCAL CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS
NOW NEAR 44/45 WEST BASED ON SAT IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SAT DERIVED
WINDS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED BELOW 15 NORTH AND NORTHERNMOST TILT OF AXIS MOVING FASTER
WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO EMBEDDED IN A DENSER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRAILING WAVE AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WAS SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. WHILE MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS...SOME EVENTUALLY
REACHED THE NORTH AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. PREVIOUS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PRESENT VAD
WIND PROFILE SUGGEST LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS.THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. QUICK EARLY MORNING
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS. DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WHERE
LOCAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST COMBINED WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.
STILL EXPECTING A SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SO FAR MODELS SUGGEST DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. FOR NOW LOOKING FOR DRIER AND DUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH BY THAT TIME ANOTHER TUTT IS
FORECAST TO REESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA AND BECOME AMPLIFIED
WHILE DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEW WEEK. FOR NOW WILL JUST MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SEE HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS MONA
PASSAGE/EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 20/15Z.
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20/16Z AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 80 / 50 50 50 30
STT 89 80 89 81 / 50 40 40 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 16N67W
13N65W...FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD LA ISLA
BLANQUILLA OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
10N77W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 23N
BETWEEN 70W AND 85W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN
COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM
PANAMA ALONG 80W TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, July 20, 2012
Moisture and instability will produce generally cloudy skies, showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across the island chain during the next 12 to 24 hours.
Meanwhile, a westward moving tropical wave located to the east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to approach the area by late tomorrow into Sunday resulting in additional showers and thunderstorm activity.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate for the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
Date:
FRIDAY 20TH JULY 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDY INTERVALS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
Winds:
EAST 5 - 15 KNOTS
Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE
Outlook:
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS FOR SKIES TO BE CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N94W AND 20N82W RESPECTIVELY ARE HELPING
PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THE STORMS
ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JAMAICA. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES DUE
TO SOME MOISTURE DRAGGED AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL
IN THE ERN ATLC. SOME DUST IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. DUSTY CONDITIONS WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
WAVE
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT JUL 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
REGION AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL
WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD PASSING
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE FA. THE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...SO THAT ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HEAVY...ONLY VERY LIMITED LOW LYING FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TJSJ 21/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND WINDS OF AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 15K FEET. THIS
FEATURES AIDED IN THE DEVELOPING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FAST
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS...AND A SAHARA AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL LINES OF QUICK PASSING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
CONTINUED TO MOV WNW AROUND 20 KTS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATL
WATERS N OF PR AND THE NRN VI...AS WELL AS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND
THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS IS GENERATING BRIEF MVFR AND PSBL IFR DUE
TO LOW SCUD LYRS BLO 015K FT AND SCT-BKN CIGS BTW 020-080K FT. FQT
LTGICCC W/STRONG TSTMS CONTD OVR LCL WATERS AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BTW
25-45 KTS BLO 20K FT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TJNR AND NRN LEEWARDS
AT LEAST TIL 21/12Z. OCNL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS REMAIN PSBL ESPECIALLY
OVR ERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR IN QUICK PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
THROUGH 21/22Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 1.14 INCHES WAS SET
AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY
20 JUL 2012. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.98 SET IN 1962.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 88 80 89 81 / 60 40 40 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST SAT JUL 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
EARLY MON WITH TUTT ACROSS THE ATLC EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT WX
FEATURE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER ENTERING
THE SE PORTION OF OUR CWA LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PR AND BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN PR. THIS
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO
YDAY. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS DUE TO FAST STORM MOTION AND 40+KT BETWEEN
700-600 MB AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. STILL LOOKS LIKE NW PR WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO.
THINGS HOWEVER CHANGE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ERN
PR...USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS AND RACE TO THE WEST. STORMS COULD
POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS DUE 40-45 KT
AT MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN
03Z-06Z. THINGS THEN DRY OUT RAPIDLY SUN MORNING WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND ARRIVING SAHARAN AIR LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT TSRA AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON THEN MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT ACROSS JSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AS TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND WATERS
SURROUNDING USVI AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...A NEW DAILY RAINFALL RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED YESTERDAY
AT THE SJU INTL ARPT WHERE 1.14 INCHES FELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 87 80 89 81 / 60 40 40 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE S COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 74W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 74W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N E OF
70W INCLUDING THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST S
OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TO OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF JAMAICA AND FROM 14N-20N W OF
80W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED. TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL W OF THE MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN THEN
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, July 21, 2012
Moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave moving westward across the Lesser Antilles will produce cloudiness, showers and possible thunderstorm activity tonight into Sunday.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate for the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
Meanwhile, another tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic is moving westward near 19 km/h.
PUBLIC FORECAST
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SATURDAY 21ST JULY 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PROGRESSES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY HOT AND BREEZY WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE. PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FOR THE BOATERS:SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IS IN EFFECT .
BOATERS SHOULD ASLO BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATERS.
SEAS RUNNING: 4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 91F 33C
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 79F 26C
SUNRISE: 6:32AM SUNSET: 8:00PM
MOONRISE: 8:49AM MOONSET: 9:37PM
HIGH TIDE: 9:59AM LOW TIDE: 4:05PM
HIGH TIDE: 10:17PM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE MOSLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. PARTLY SUNNY AND WINDY IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
WINDS: SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERLY AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR MONDAY:
WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS, CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY AND HOT IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AT THIS TIME.
THE END.
I.V.M.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF
PANAMA AT 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 77W-86W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN JUL 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
REGION AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MODERATE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...SO THAT ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HEAVY...ONLY VERY LIMITED LOW LYING
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TJSJ 22/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND WINDS UP TO
40 KNOTS AT 15K FEET OR LESS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS...AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
IN FACT...GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE
NEAR OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISH OVER THE FA ON
MONDAY AND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON LONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED.
NO OTHER WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...STREAMS OF MOISTURE CREATING SCT-BKN CLD LYRS WITH
SMALL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL
GENERATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS AS THEY PASS BY.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST
22/11Z... THEN WX CONDS BCM LESS FAVORABLE AT TJSJ...TIST...TISX BTW
22/09Z-21/14Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFT. LCL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH 22/14Z MAINLY E INTERIOR OF PR. STRONG ESE LLVL WINDS BLO
20K FT. REACHING 25 KT 500 FEET ABV SFC...THEN INCRG TO NR 40 KT OR
SO NR 15K FT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 78 / 30 40 40 30
STT 91 81 90 80 / 20 30 30 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 17N79W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE E CARIBBEAN SE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N
W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA/
COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 12N W OF 78W TO INLAND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-85W INCLUDING CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, July 22, 2012
Lingering moisture associated with the passage of a westward moving tropical wave will result in a few periods of cloudiness and some brief showers across the region mainly during the earlier part of today. This will be followed by a gradual drying out of the atmosphere as the day progresses. Hazy and breezy conditions are also anticipated.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate during the next 48 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
Meanwhile, another tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic is moving westward near 19 km/h.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Monday midday 12:00 l.t., July 23, 2012.
Issued: Sunday July 22, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
.SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
Weather:
Today: Partly sunny.
Tonight through Monday midday: Partly, occasionally mostly cloudy with a few showers.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:20 and sunset at 19:04.
Winds: East Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).
Occasionally strong in gusts; force 6 (40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots). In showers, gusts could reach to near gale; Force 7 (51 to 61 km/hr, 28 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: An overall dry weather condition is foreseen to prevail for today, among a strong wind regime and deteriorated seas. The local weather however is forecast to change somewhat when cloudiness with shower activity spreads across the region into the beginning of the week. Furthermore, the strong wind pattern will continue through most of the upcoming workweek resulting in rough and hazardous seas out there. The marine interest in general is advised to be cautious.
Sea conditions: Moderate to fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2 meters. Locally waves could peak to 2.5 meters.
Significant Tropical Systems: None.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Tuesday midday: Generally partly cloudy with a morning brief shower possible.
Forecaster: Coffie
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CENTER IS BECOMING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN BECAUSE
IT IS BEING STRETCHED IN AN EAST-TO-WEST DIRECTION.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...STAYING TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING
COLOMBIA AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 72W...FROM
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST MON JUL 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...
STILL EXPECT HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
THE MODERATE TO FRESH LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...SO ONLY VERY LIMITED PCPN AMOUNTS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS MORNING. TJSJ 23/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PWAT HAS DECREASED TO AROUND 1.50
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...GFS COMPUTER
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE BELOW 1.5 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISH OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY AND THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES EARLY IN THE MORNING. SFC TO 2K FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT THE SFC
AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 23/12Z. SHRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF PR BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERE IS STILL SAHARAN DUST PRESENT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 20 30
STT 88 80 90 81 / 10 30 30 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS S OF SAINT LUCIA...AS A RECENTLY ADDED TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES OVER THESE GROUP OF ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N E OF 66. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES S OF 19N W OF
81W...ASSOCIATED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EMBEDDED IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHOUT ANY IMPACTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Monday, July 23, 2012
A ridge of high pressure has established itself across the area. This will result in a relatively dry atmosphere with limited shower activity across the island during the next 24 hours. However, an induced surface trough traversing the Southern Windward is expected to result in an increase in moisture and instability across the area by late today into Tuesday increasing the chance for a few showers here. Hazy and breezy conditions are also anticipated.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate during the next 24 hours with swells now peaking near 7.0 feet.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic Ocean is moving westward near 24 km/h.
ISSUED AT: 02:41PM
Date:Monday 23rd of July 2012
Meteorologist: Saide Shakeer
FOR THE PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON,EVENING AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Brief light to moderate showers in varying
localities.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Breezy at times with the brief light shower.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0m IN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
TODAY'S MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 28 Crown Point: 28
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:41PM
Date:Sunday 22nd of July 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 06:18am 07:03pm LOW 12:22am 12:35pm
Scarborough HIGH 06:03am 06:46pm LOW **:** 12:31pm
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THIS IS
LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 13N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 85W TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THU. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS E
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, July 24, 2012
A ridge of high pressure is beginning to establish itself across the region. This will result in a gradual drying out of the atmosphere as the day progresses. Hazy conditions will continue to reduce visibility across the region during the next 48 hours.
Sea conditions are expected to remain moderate during the next 12 to 24 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. A further improvement is expected by tomorrow.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic Ocean is moving westward near 24 km/h.
Date:
TUESDAY 24TH JULY 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS MOIST OVER OUR AREA LATER TODAY...
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING..THEN INLAND AFTER MID-MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
Winds:
EAST - NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS... BECOMING GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Sea State:
MODERATE....BUT BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES.
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
Outlook
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE JUL 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TUTT BECOMING THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AGAIN NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA AT LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND STRENGTHENING SAHARAN AIR LAYER.
12Z GFS SUGGESTS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT BOTH WED AND
THU THAT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING GOING. POPS CARRY
ISOLD POPS BUT THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. DON`T BE SURPRISED IF
NOTHING DEVELOPS AT ALL. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS TUTT RETROGADES AND UPPER RIDGE
STARTS BUILDING IN PUTTING AREA UNDER MORE FVRB ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN/LIFT AND MAY ALLOW FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CVRG HOWEVER WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY
MID LEVELS.
NEXT SIG CHANCE OF RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK UNTIL NEXT THU AUG 02 AS
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS THE BEST
WAVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND IT APPEARS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRES AREA AND FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY LARGE AREA OF STABLE AIR COVERING
THE EASTERN ATLC. IN ADDITION...WAVE IS FCST TO ENCOUNTER A MORE
HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ONCE IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEXT WEEK. SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE
WITH TIME BUT CURRENT WX PATTERN OF TUTT/SAL AND UNFVRBL
MJO/POSITIVE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES DO NOT FAVOR MUCH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT OR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 24/18Z
AND 24/21Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...SAHARAN DUST WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES...BUT MOST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 80 89 / 10 10 10 10
STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST WED JUL 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST AND NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. BY WEEK`S END HIGH PRESSURE WILL REPLACE THE TROUGH.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN
20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE...INSULATING THE AREA FROM THE MUCH
STRONGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS A
WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FROM THE EAST. DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK A LOW FORMS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH AND 40 AND 50 WEST
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH
OF IT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN TO THE WEST FROM 50 WEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH. A WEAK WAVES PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER WETTER WAVE IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX AND OFF
THE NORTH AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTED INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST...OTHERWISE IT WAS MOSTLY
DRY AND SOMEWHAT HAZY FROM THE PERSISTENT SAHARAN DUST. NOW THAT
THE WAVE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS
IN PLACE...SHOWERS WILL BE FEW...AND CONCENTRATED MAINLY BETWEEN
MAYAGUEZ AND RINCON AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT THE GFS WAS SPINNING UP FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST IS NOW QUITE ORDINARY AND WAVE ACTION IS
ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK...IN PART DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRIER AIR BOTH
FROM THE SAHARA AND THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...MOISTEN UP ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS THE TRANSITION WILL BE
GRADUAL AND SERVE ONLY TO RETURN THE AREA TO A MORE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS CONT AND EVEN ISOLD SHRA OFFSHORE AT NIGHT
AND OVER W PR IN AFTERNOON WILL NOT LOWER CONDS. SAHARAN DUST TO
CAUSE HAZE BUT AIRPORT VSBYS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 12 MILES.
&&
.MARINE...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST...SEAS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 FEET EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LOW OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO E CUBA NEAR
20N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 OS LINE FROM 18N79W TO 17N84W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10N-14N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N66W TO 16N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 11N BETWEEN 61W-64W INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF TRINIDAD.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO W
CARIBBEAN THU. THE MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, July 25, 2012
A ridge of high pressure has established itself across the region. This will result in a relatively dry and stable atmosphere with limited shower activity. However, patches of low level clouds moving westward could result in a slight increase in cloudiness with brief scattered showers mainly during the afternoon period. Hazy conditions will continue to reduce visibility across the region during the next 48 hours.
Sea conditions are expected to be slight to moderate during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic Ocean is moving westward near 24 km/h.
July 25, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… A Tropical Wave is approaching Jamaica from the east.
Comment
The Wave should move across Jamaica later today.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over sections of most parishes.
Tonight … Cloudy with isolated thunderstorms.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Thurs… Isolated morning showers. Mainly sunny afternoon.
Fri… Mainly sunny morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over western parishes during the afternoon.
Sat… Partly cloudy over eastern parishes during the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over western parishes during the afternoon.
Regionally… A Tropical Wave is generating cloudy conditions over sections of Central America.
ram
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1006
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 5N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 78W-80W. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N NICARAGUA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N65W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 19N
BETWEEN 68W-83W HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST THU JUL 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MIGRATES WESTWARD BETWEEN 20 AND
30 NORTH LATITUDE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT MONTH. WINDS ALOFT
REACH 25 KNOTS OVER AGUADILLA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A JET FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PASSES
OVER...OTHERWISE FLOW IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE PAST THE AREA FROM THE EAST
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS UNTIL A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOLLOWS
ON SUNDAY...THEN A MUCH STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY AND
CROSSES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FOLLOWS THIS BAND UNTIL
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BRIEF DRY SLOTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS APPEARED ON RADAR OVERNIGHT AND
THESE WERE QUITE LIGHT. FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS HAS TURNED TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH
COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
BUT CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT GUSTY WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS MUCH IN THE
FORECAST. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THE LIFTED INDEX DROPPING BELOW MINUS
4 ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING BETWEEN MINUS 4 AND MINUS 6 THROUGH 4
AUGUST. VERY STABLE INDICES...FOR OUR AREA...OF GREATER THAN MINUS
1 ARE INDICATED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW. ALL CLOSED LOWS LEAVING AFRICA BECOME OPEN WAVES
IN THE 26/00Z GFS RUN BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH
4 AUGUST. SYSTEMS ALSO APPEAR WEAKER IN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS XCP ALL TAF SITES HAVE AN
OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING BARELY VFR CIGS...MAINLY IN AFTERNOON ISOLD
CONVECTION. LLVL WINDS (BLO FL150) WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ENE 12-20
KT BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN 15-28 KT BY 27/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE UNSTEADILY NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSES ON TUESDAY...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN SOME WATERS DUE TO WINDS
UP TO 18 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 10 10 20 10
STT 90 79 90 80 / 10 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-82W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
80W WITH DRY STABLE AIR E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING
THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO NE CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN.
8:05PM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao
valid until Friday midday 12:00 l.t., July 27, 2012.
Issued: Thursday July 26, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
.SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS WHEN OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
Weather:
Today through Friday midday: Generally partly cloudy with no significant precipitation.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 27°C.
Sunrise: 06:21 and sunset at 19:03.
Winds: East southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).
Occasional gusts, strong to near gale; force 6 to 7 (40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: There is no significant change expected in the current weather and a generally partly cloudy skies will continue to prevail. Otherwise, a relatively stronger wind will result in deterioration of the seas with above normal wave action over the exposed waters.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. Boaters should cautious over the open waters.
Significant Tropical Systems: none.
Special features: none.
Outlook until Saturday midday: Partly to mostly cloudy with chance of a few passing showers.
Forecaster: Figueroa
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Thursday, July 26, 2012
A ridge of high pressure has established itself across the region. This will result in a relatively dry and stable atmosphere with limited shower activity. However, patches of low level clouds moving westward could result in a slight increase in cloudiness with brief scattered showers mainly during the afternoon period. Hazy conditions will continue to reduce visibility across the region during the next 48 hours.
Sea conditions are expected to be slight to moderate during the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic Ocean is moving westward near 24 km/h. This wave is expected to approach the area by late Sunday into Monday.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 8N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 76W-84W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E
NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N62W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUL 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT WITH MULTIPLE LOWS CONTINUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH
FROM THE STRONGEST LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY. A REFLECTION OF THE STRONGER TUTT LOW IS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND MOVES CLOSER DURING THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE
IS SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
COMES WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. A MUCH STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
WITH BETTER MOISTURE THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER WITH RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE INVADED THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FIRST LEG OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THIS LEG DEVELOPED LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED AXIS
OF THE WAVE LOCATED NEAR 20 NORTH AND 53 WEST AT 27/07Z
APPROACHED THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MIMIC PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH
OF IT AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY
GENERATED IT. THE TWO LEGS FORMING THE INVERTED V SHAPE OF THE
WAVE SHOULD PASS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED ON SUNDAY EVENING BY DRYING AT 700 MB AND THE
SURFACE. BETTER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT TO HOLD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE USVI AND THE WINDWARD PORTION OF PUERTO RICO DESPITE LOW TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AROUND NOON...OR
JUST BEFORE...IN THE USVI AS A GLOBE OF MOISTURE WITH A TAIL
STREAMING BACK FROM ITS TOP. IT CROSSES INTO PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE
"TAIL" THEN CROSSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
PRESENTLY SATELLITE PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE MOISTURE IN THE SECOND
WAVE AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL NOT WEAKEN VERY MUCH AS IT
APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDIER AND WETTER
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IN CONTRAST TO THE DRIER AND HAZIER
WEATHER THIS WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND THEIR MOISTURE
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME OF THOSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SECOND
WAVE ENTERS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 27/22Z. HOWEVER... BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TJMZ. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY...BUT FORECAST FALLS JUST SHORT. NEVERTHELESS
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ACCOMPANYING THE INVADING
TROPICAL WAVE MONDAY...WILL CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO WHICH THEY ARE MOVING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 10 30 30 30
STT 90 79 90 81 / 30 10 20 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 85W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WESTERN MOST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WELL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.
8:05AM
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