nigel20's WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: nigel20, 03:47 PM GMT del 26 Marzo 2012 | +6 |
| Permalink | A A A |
|
Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
|
|
| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatura: | 76.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 66.0 °F |
| Umidità: | 71% |
| Vento: | 4.0 mph from the NE |
| Raffiche di vento: | 6.0 mph |
|
Updated: 01:02 AM EST del 20 Giugno 2013
|
|
 |
Scarica le tue Etichette Meteo®! |
 |
Carica le tue foto |
 |
API Meteo per Sviluppatori NEW! |
 |
Iscriviti al sito |
 |
Vieni a trovarci su Facebook |
 |
Seguici su Twitter |
| Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc. | Chi siamo - Contattaci - Assistenza - Opportunità d’impiego - Comunicati stampa - Condizioni del servizio - Privacy Statement |
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
FURTHER S...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 77W-81W TO INCLUDE E PANAMA. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTEND INLAND FROM W PANAMA TO BELIZE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWED ABOVE-NORMAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.15 INCHES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS WELL AS RADAR DATA INDICATES MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
INDUCED BY A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WILL TRANSPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AN US VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
ON MONDAY AS A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 16/17Z AND 16/21Z...IN SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 79 / 30 20 40 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 30 20 20 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...MAXIMIZED
AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 50 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 80W. SIMILAR IS OVER
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM
17N70W TO 11N72W. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UNFAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS NO ACTIVITY IS DETECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
2:05PM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Sunday morning 06:00 l.t., June 17, 2012.
Issued: Saturday June 16, 2012. 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation
Tonight through Saturday midday: Partly cloudy, occasionally mostly cloudy with a chance of a few passing showers and slight risk of thunder.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:11 and sunset at 19:01.
Winds: East to Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong; force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: A tropical wave is moving across the Eastern Caribbean to the west. The proximity of this wave could produce some cloudiness which could then induce a few isolated showers over parts of the islands of Bonaire and Curaçao today through Sunday.
Sea conditions: Generally moderate with waves between 1 and 2 meters.
Significant Tropical Systems: None.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Monday midday: Partly cloudy, occasionally mostly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower.
Forecaster: Figueroa.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 16, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will begin to re-establish its self across the Eastern Caribbean. As a result, fair to partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions can be expected over the islands during the next 24 hours. The presence of Saharan dust across the area will continue to influence slightly hazy conditions over the islands.
Sea conditions will remain moderate throughout the weekend. Some slight increase in swells is anticipated by Monday. Small craft operators and sea bathers, should continue to exercise caution.
Another tropical wave is located in the Eastern Atlantic and is moving westwards near 10kts.
Date:
SATURDAY 16TH JUNE 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS....
24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS....WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
Sea State:
CHOPPY .... BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES.
*OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION*
Outlook:
FOR SUN. AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY MON. IS FOR CONTINUING CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AFTER AN ELONGATED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ROTATES
THROUGH THE OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND MOVES AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MID WEEK...BUT REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK LOW MOVES
WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM NEAR
AFRICA...BUILDING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES
AT MID LEVELS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE BEYOND
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LATE TO START...BUT MOISTURE AND HEATING
COULD NOT RESIST GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
PLAINS OF THE NORTH COAST. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVED ONTO THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. FARTHER SOUTH
RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WHOSE AXIS IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE MONA CHANNEL. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH A TRAIL OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING. THIS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAS BOOSTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.8 INCHES. IT IS SPECULATED THAT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
NOT ALLOWING MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN SEEN AND NOTED THAT BETTER
CONVECTION IS FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WAVE IS STRONGER. MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH AT ALL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY AND SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
AGAIN DECREASE TO BELOW 10 MILES AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A HAZE
GREATER THAN SEEN LAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO AREA WILL BE IMMUNE TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT IN AREAS WHERE
VEGETATION IS BROWNING. SOME SHOWER INCREASES WILL BE SEEN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BUT DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
WAVE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 16/21Z IN TSRA. LLVL
WINDS SE AT 10-15 KT.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. SEAS WILL
INCREASE MARGINALLY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT CONDITIONS
MERITING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT SAN JUAN...TODAY MARKS THE EIGHTEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES AND THE SIXTEENTH DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT SAINT THOMAS...TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE SEVENTEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 88 / 10 40 40 40
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 20 40 40
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT WITH BOTH A
TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT IS FLOWING BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. THIS COMBINATION IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 72W WITH
PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED THROUGHOUT. STRONG
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA
INCLUDING NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME ACTIVITY IS
ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS IS ENHANCED BY A
PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF NRN
COLOMBIA PARALLELING THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA E COASTS
CONTINUING ACROSS NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MAIN AXIS BEGINNING
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NW. MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA
E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS.
THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY FRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
8:05PM
NEWS RELEASE
June 16, 2012 at 5:00 p.m.
***** INCREASE IN RAINFALL LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY *****
An Area of Low Pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean early Sunday and should induce a Trough across Jamaica bringing unstable weather conditions over the island and its territorial waters.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, are forecast to begin affecting the island on Sunday and continue into late Monday.
Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds could be experience in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the next two days.
ram/vtj
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE
AND THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ONE OR
TWO STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB...AND EXPECT SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT TO BE CLOSE TO 90...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL QUITE MAKE
IT. SATURDAY MARKED THE 18TH DAY IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES.
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN. AN AREA
OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA TODAY. ALTHOUGH...MOST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDS...TJMZ AND TJBQ MAY HAVE PERIODS
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17/16Z AND
17/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KTS...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KTS AFTER 17/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 10 0
STT 81 80 82 80 / 20 20 10 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N68W-T0-21N77W TROUGH ALSO
HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 68W...AND FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W INCLUDING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
THE 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM
17/0000 UTC WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT
INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND
CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF
75W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO WEST OF 80W.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00PM on Sunday, June 17, 2012
A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature across the Eastern Caribbean. As a result, fair to partly cloudy skies are expected over the islands during the next 24 hours. The presence of Saharan dust across the area will continue to influence slightly hazy conditions over the islands.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
A Central Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward near 24 km/h.
Public Forecast Northwest Bahamas
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUNDAY, 17TH JUNE, 2012.
GENERAL SITUATION: A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS.
FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS:
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY AND A BIT BREEZY WITH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER OR TWO...TURNING FAIR TONIGHT.
FOR THE BOATERS:
WINDS: NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 KNOTS.
SEAS RUNNING: 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN...IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY: 89F 31C LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT: 75F 24C.
SUNRISE: 6:20AM SUNSET: 8:02PM.
MOONSET: 6:33PM MOONRISE: 5:30AM MONDAY.
HIGH TIDE: 6:58AM & 7:28PM LOW TIDE: 1:01PM.
EXTENDED FORECAST: SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS.
FORECAST FOR MONDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAIR AT NIGHT.
WINDS: EASTERLY AT 15 KNOTS.
SEAS: 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY:
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...BREEZY AT NIGHT.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.
TROPICAL WEATHER: THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER: GREGORY D THOMPSON
June 17, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical Wave passing over Jamaica, as a Trough west of the island.
Comment
The Tropical Wave passes west of Jamaica tomorrow. The
Trough west of Jamaica is likely to develop into an Area of Low Pressure
today as it moves northward.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Showers over eastern parishes. Cloudy otherwise.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central
and western parishes. Cloudy.
Tonight… Showers linger over western parishes. Decreasing cloud.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 31 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon… Cloudy day. Morning showers over northeastern parishes. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over northern parishes and inland areas of southern parishes. Windy over south coast.
Tue… Mostly cloudy day. Afternoon showers over northern parishes. Windy
over southern parishes.
Wed… Generally fair morning. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms over inland areas and northern parishes.
Regionally… A Tropical Wave is west of Jamaica as an Area of Low
Pressure is east of Jamaica. A Trough is north of the Caribbean with the
High Pressure Ridge toward the east of the basin.
rar
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FLARING UP OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH SE WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N74W TO 15N76W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRES IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE LOW PRES WILL
SPREAD WWD OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT ALSO INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THESE FEATURES.
2:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PULL AWAY
AND A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL RECEDE TO THE WEST BUT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALONG 13
NORTH AND CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY TO PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE THEN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WILL MOVE TO
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT ACTOR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEYOND THAT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSING OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WEDNESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A HIGH THAT IS
MOVING WEST ALONG 30 NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RETREATS AGAIN TO
THE NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO RICO
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR ALL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
CONTINUING IN THE MONA CHANNEL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH
VIEQUES. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT BUT MOST
MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE COMING IN AROUND 06Z AND
INCREASING THE EARLY MORNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 18/12Z ESPECIALLY OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN SUCH DRY AIR THAT NO SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP...
ALTHOUGH DUSTY SAHARAN AIR WILL MAKE CONVECTION DIFFICULT.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS OF 94 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN SAN JUAN. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL
ALONG THE NORTH COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH 42 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND IS VERY WEAK AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS AS IT PASSES
21/00Z ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AIR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO ARE
STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE ISOLATED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ALSO CROP UP IN THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...TJMZ AND TJBQ MAY HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 17/24Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN
THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
TIGHTENS...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO
10 DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TODAY MARKS
THE NINETEENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F DEGREES.
IN FACT...FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 94F DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 93 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 20 20 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 67W-72W. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING N
OF PUERTO RICO LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 72W-89W INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS CUBA. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ATTRIBUTED TO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 19N80W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N82W...AS OF 2100 UTC. TROUGHING ALSO
EXTENDS TOWARDS THE NE INTO THE W ATLC. ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA IS ALSO ENHANCED BY A PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN IS THE ONLY PORTION OF THE BASIN
THAT IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH REPORTS OF DUST.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WRAPPING AROUND A
HORIZONTALLY ALIGNED UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT
CONTINUES INTO THE ATLC. EXPECT THE BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
TROUGHING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NW. THIS MEANS THAT MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN
CARIBBEAN. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH A RIDGE THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
AND THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD STILL BE ONE OR TWO STRONG
BOOMERS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LESS CLOUDINESS AND
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW
NORTH COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...AND EXPECT THE SAN
JUAN LMM AIRPORT MAX TO BE NEAR 92F. SUNDAY MARKED THE 19TH DAY IN
A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES AND TODAY
PROJECTS TO BE THE 20TH.
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY DRY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT HIGH TEMPERATURE TO ECLIPSE 90F...PROBABLY NEAR 93F...AND
IF SO TUESDAY WOULD BE THE 21ST DAY IN A ROW OF 90 OR BETTER.
STILL APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO OR THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A FEW
ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SAN JUAN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL BETTING ON NEAR 90F
EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WX CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
CHANGE OF SHRA AND TSRA LATER TODAY IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 93 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
14N86W EASTWARD TO 16N66W THEN NORTHEAST TO BEYOND 25N56W.
GENERALLY NORTH OF THIS AXIS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES
WHICH ALONG WITH THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. BENEATH FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 17N80W
THEN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 16N84W ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. WITH BOTH A
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND SUPPORTIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN
PLACE...A LARGE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 20N72W TO 10N80W.
THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...FAIR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES.
2:05PM
ISSUED AT: 10:28AM
Date:Monday 18th of June 2012
Meteorologist: S. Shakeer
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards:
Sunny and breezy at times this afternoon with a
slight chance of brief showers in few confined
areas. Tonight will be clear despite the late
night shower.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Brief afternoon showers in varying localities.
SEAS: Slight to Normal
WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:16PM
Date:Sunday 17th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 2:40 am 3:57 pm LOW 9:35 am 9:20 pm
Scarborough HIGH 2:18 am 3:31 pm LOW 9:18 am 8:38 pm
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00PM on Monday, June 18, 2012
A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature across the Eastern Caribbean providing a moderate trade wind flow. Low level clouds moving with this wind flow will result in occasional cloudy skies and scattered showers.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 to 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.
An Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward near 32 km/h.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Tuesday midday 12:00 l.t., June 19, 2012.
Issued: Monday June 18, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
SWIMMERS AND OCCUPANTS OF SMALL VESSELS ARE URGED TO VENTURE WITH CAUTION BECAUSE OF ROUGH SEAS ON OUR SOUTHERN SHORES..
Weather:
Today: Generally partly cloudy and mainly dry.
Tonight through Tuesday midday: Partly cloudy.
Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:11 and sunset at 19:02.
Winds: Southeasterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: A disturbance over the western Atlantic generates abundant cloudiness across the Central and northeast Caribbean. Showers over the local islands however will be inhibited by an abiding dry southeast air flow. Otherwise, a generally moderate air flow will continue to prevail over the regional area.
Sea conditions: Generally moderate with waves between 1 and 2.0 meters. Swimmers and occupants of small vessels are urged to venture with caution because of rough seas on our southern shores.
Significant Tropical Systems: None.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Wednesday midday: Partly cloudy and a virtually dry weather condition.
Forecaster: Luciano
NEWS RELEASE
June 18, 2012 at 5:00 p.m.
***** FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN PARISHES. *****
The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Mary, Portland, St. Thomas, Kingston and St. Andrew until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.
An Area of Low Pressure and associated Trough across the southwestern Caribbean has been influencing weather conditions across Jamaica since Sunday. As a result, sections of eastern and central parishes were mainly affected by increased rainfall today.
The forecast is for cloudy conditions with periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to continue especially across eastern parishes tonight and Tuesday.
A gradual improvement is expected on Wednesday as this area of unstable weather drifts further northwestward.
Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds could be experience in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
cdj
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
ITS LOCATION WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR ON
ITS HEELS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE FA FROM THE EAST. SO FOR
TODAY...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT DO
NOT SEE A BIG DEAL OUT OF THIS...AS BRIEFLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SAN JUAN LMM AIRPORT MAX TEMPERATURE JUST
MADE 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY...MAKING 20 DAYS IN A ROW OF 90F OR
GREATER. EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY...MAKING 21 IN
A ROW AND PUTTING US IN A 7TH PLACE TIE WITH 1983 (ENDING JULY
28TH) FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90F OR MORE.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY MOST OF THURSDAY...AS
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A FEW ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN PROBABLY
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN
RATHER HAZY CONDITIONS. STREAK OF 90F+ DAYS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STILL BETTING ON NEAR 90
EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONT BUT SHRA WILL BE NR TIST/TISX TIL AT
LEAST DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR FROM E HAS ARRIVED AT TNCM/TKPK AND WILL
REACH USVI/PR LATER IN MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCR AGAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS ESE 15-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 91 80 / 20 30 50 20
STT 89 80 88 81 / 10 50 50 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR HAITI
EXTENDING AN AXIS NW ACROSS E CUBA TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
FORT MYERS AND E TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS
INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG 19N83W TO 21N80W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO INLAND
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF LINE FROM SW HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA LEAVING THE S AND E
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO WED AND THU. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN WED AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THU.
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Tuesday, June 19, 2012
A weak tropical wave will produce some cloudiness and showers over the southern portion of the island chain during the next 12 to 24 hours. Elsewhere across the Eastern Caribbean, low level clouds moving with the trade wind flow will result in occasional cloudy skies and scattered showers. Also, breezy conditions are anticipated.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. An improvement is expected by the week's end. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to exercise caution due to above normal seas.
Another Atlantic tropical wave will continue to move westward near 32 km/h.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
TUESDAY 19TH JUNE 2012
GENERAL SITUATION: A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARDS.
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, TURNING CLOUDY AND BREEZY TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS: NE TO E AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEAS: 4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OCEAN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 88 °F 31°C
OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 75°F 24°C
SUNRISE: 6:20 AM MOONRISE: 6:20 AM TUE HIGH TIDE 8:21 PM
SUNSET : 8:02 PM MOONSET: 8:11 PM LOW TIDE 2:22 AM
EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: UNSTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A WARM FRONT AND MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WEATHER: PTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATT SHOWERS
WINDS: NE/E 15KNOTS
SEAS: 3/5FT
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
WEATHER: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WIND: NE/E 15/20KNOTS
SEAS: 4/6FT CAUTION COMES INTO EFFECT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH EAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A SUB TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HRS....ELSEWHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
FCSTR. WAYNE.T.NEELY
NEWS RELEASE
June 19, 2012 at 6:00 a.m.
***** FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARISHES ***
The Meteorological Service has extended the Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Mary, Portland, St. Thomas, Kingston and St. Andrew until 5:00 p.m.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.
The area of Low Pressure and its associated Trough across the western Caribbean continue to influence weather conditions over Jamaica and its territorial waters.
Throughout last night satellite imagery and rainfall data indicate that showers continue to affect sections of eastern and some central parishes.
Although there are signs that the system is drifting away from Jamaica, there is still the potential for showers and thunderstorms, hence the extension of the Flash Flood Watch.
Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds could be experience in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
ram
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...INDUCING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS MOVED RAPIDLY OVER REGION FROM THE EAST AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. FEW SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED RAPIDLY BY
ADDITIONAL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND FOR
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN HAZY
CONDITIONS. THE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE A RELEASE IN THE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 20/00 WITH SOME SHRA IN THE VCNTY. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFT 20/00Z. LLVL WINDS ABV SFC TO 15 KFT EAST
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KT. OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 91 / 30 50 40 30
STT 80 88 81 88 / 50 50 30 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH MARKS THE AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W ACROSS WRN CUBA TO BELIZE AT 18N88W. A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS CROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS MEANING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE DRY AIR IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IT IS NOT
CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED ON
THE NEXT ANALYSIS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NW INTO THE SE GULF.
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST JUST E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS SHORTLY CAUSING HAZY CONDITIONS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FCST TO
EVOLVE INTO A TUTT LOW LATER TODAY THEN BEGIN TO FILL FRI AS IT
MOVES SWWD ALONG 70W OVR THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK FROM THE ATLC WWD INTO THE NE CARIB.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ATTM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SHOULD NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY. MAIN WX MAKER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY/DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SWD. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FACTORS THAT
COULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CVRG TODAY ARE STRONG BDRY LYR FLOW WHICH
MAY LIMIT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH STORM
MOTION NEARLY AT 20 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
I SEE BETTER TSTM POTENTIAL TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL COOL
POOL WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA AND WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
ATMS FURTHER. BDRY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIKELY
RESULT IN BETTER/STRONGER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. SEVERE WX
PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF
OVER 50...SWEAT INDICES NEAR 350 AND VERY UNSTABLE SHOWALTER
INDICES NEAR -5C. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
AID IN DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. I EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THU
ACROSS NW PR. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ALSO QUITE HIGH AROUND 80
M^2/S^2.
THEN SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARRIVES FOR FRI AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIG DRYING TREND. ONLY EXPECT TO SEE A SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NW PR AT BEST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER..BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND PR AND VI TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH ESE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SCT TSTMS
TODAY AND THU WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG OR SEVERE. MARINERS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE SKY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WX RADIO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES A BIT TOO HIGH TODAY AND THU WITH SIG
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT LOW
WHEN COMPARED TO YDAY. HOWEVER...SIG DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR FRI
AND THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER THU THRU THE REST
OF THE MONTH LOOK PRETTY SLIM.
&&
.CLIMATE...JUNE 2012 AT SJU WILL BE ONE DEFINITELY FOR THE RECORD
BOOKS. AVG TEMP SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS BEEN 85.6F ALMOST A FULL
DEGREE WARMER THAN JUNE 1983 TO THE DATE. NOT ONLY IT LOOKS LIKE
JUNE 2012 WILL BE THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD BUT IT WILL LIKELY
END AS THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR WARMER THAN ANY JULY OR
AUGUST. RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN 0.03 INCHES AND TODAY AND THU IS
THE BEST CHANCE TO ADD ANYTHING ELSE BECAUSE AFTER THU THINGS
REALLY DRY OUT UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER
RIDGE. THE HOT DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST RIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH. IF NO RAINFALL FALLS AT SJU TODAY OR THU...THE
MONTH IS LIKELY TO END AS THE SECOND DRIEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON
RECORD. THE DRIEST MONTH EVER WAS MARCH 2005 WHEN NO RAIN FELL AT ALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 92 78 / 40 40 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 50 30 10 0
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
16N94W E-NE TO NEAR 23N76W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC N OF 17N W OF 72W. THIS AREA ALOFT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE
SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
TRADES. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGHING THAT
EXISTS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, June 20, 2012
A ridge of high pressure will gradually become the dominant feature across the Eastern Caribbean during the next 24 hours. As a result, partly cloudy skies with a few brief showers can be expected over the islands. Meanwhile, Saharan dust will influence hazy conditions across the area.
Sea conditions will remain moderate for the next few days with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. An improvement is expected by the week's end with swells reducing to 5.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to continue to exercise caution.
Another tropical wave located in the far Eastern Atlantic will continue to move westward near 24 km/h.
Tropical storm Chris is moving over the North Atlantic Ocean. Chris poses NO threat to Dominica.
General Conditions: Cloudy, rainy conditions and rough seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a broad area of low pressure over the northwest Caribbean.
Cloudy to overcast skies with a 40% chance of showers and thunder. Showers may be locally heavy at times.
Winds over open sea
Winds will be southeast 15 to 20 knots.
Sea State
Seas will be moderate to rough with wave heights of 4 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution over open water.
Temperature
High: 87°F | 31°C
Low: 78°F | 26°C
June 20, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…A High Pressure Ridge is across the central Caribbean,Trough now over western Cuba.
Comment
Comment…The Ridge is expected to remain across the central Caribbean up
to Saturday and should bring windy conditions over southern parishes.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning … Partly cloudy.
This Afternoon… Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and western parishes. Windy over southern parishes.
Tonight… Becoming fair.
Maximum temperatures expected tonight for:
Kingston 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Thur… Mainly sunny morning. Widely scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over hilly and inland areas. Windy over southern parishes.
Fri…Partly cloudy morning over eastern parishes. Mostly cloudy afternoon with widely scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Windy over southern parishes.
Sat…. Isolated morning showers over southern parishes. Mostly cloudy afternoon and windy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Regionally… A Trough is generating showers and thunderstorms across the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
vtj
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 19N W OF 78W...ASSOCIATED TO
THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO OVER
THIS REGION SUPPORTING THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD...PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH
10-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES OBSERVED E OF 80W.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NEAR 30N 70W WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGER TROF
OVR ERN NOAM ON SUN. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN TO STRENGTHEN
NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE MADE SOME FLIP FLOP WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION AND FORECAST OF THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. NOW
THEY HAVE IT MEANDERING TO THE NORTH OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS
INSTEAD OF DROPPING IT SWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA LIKE THEY INDICATED
YDAY. BUT THIS DOESN`T HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN OUR SENSIBLE WX AS
LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT WILL ESTABLISH LATER TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BEFORE THE REALLY DRY AIR ARRIVES
IN TONIGHT THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE LAST DAY OF SCT
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH HI-RES AND GFS MODELS DO NOT SEEM TOO
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY HOT AND EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE TODAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL TO -8C AND SFC TEMPS SOAR
TO THE MID 90S. WHILE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE DETRIMENTAL TO
STORM COVERAGE...ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERE WITH WET MICROBURST/DAMAGING WINDS AS LIFTED INDICES
PEAK AT -8C AND SI AT -5C AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR AIDS IN STRONG
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
AFTER TODAY...PW VALUES DROP STEADILY AND BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND AN
INCH BY SUN AS SAL AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY HAZY WITH SIG DUST CONCENTRATIONS RESULTING IN
SIG AIR QUALITY DETERIORATION AS AIR MASS BECOME QUITE STABLE.
PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY NEXT SEVEN DAYS UNDER STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER RIDGE PATTERN EVEN THOUGH SAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FCST FOR NEXT WED BUT DO NOT HOLD
YOUR BREATH ON AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 21/17Z AND 21/22Z IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS. DUST HAZE WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND VSBYS MAY DROP TO
5SM AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. DUST HAZE
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AND MAY DROP VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SCT
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PR LATER TODAY WITH FREQ
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER TODAY SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS HUMIDITIES
DROP UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND ADIABATIC WARMING AND HELP DESICCATE BOTH LIVE AND
DEAD FUELS.
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS RANKS AS THE SIXTH LONGEST STREAK
NOW TIED WITH 1987. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE
35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 25 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF TYING THAT RECORD.
SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 5 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F AND THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 1983 WITH 7.
THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 0 0
STT 90 81 90 81 / 10 0 0 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
17N97W E-NE TO NEAR 23N81W OVER WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NW OF A LINE FROM
17N88W TO 21N78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEST OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE BASIN S
OF 20N E OF 84W. THE ONLY AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG 09N/10N S OF 10N BETWEEN 75W-81W.
2:05PM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Thursday, June 21, 2012
A ridge of high pressure is now the dominant feature across the Eastern Caribbean. As a result, a gradual drying out of the atmosphere can be expected with showers limited to mostly late night to early morning periods. Meanwhile, Saharan dust will continue to influence hazy conditions across the area.
Moderate to strong easterly winds will maintain moderate sea conditions during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. An improvement is expected by the weekend with swells reducing to 5.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to continue to exercise caution.
A tropical wave located in the far Eastern Atlantic will continue to move westward near 24 km/h.
ISSUED AT: 09:51AM
Date:Thursday 21st of June 2012
Meteorologist: P. Wellington
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Sunny spells during the afternoon interrupted by
light/moderate brief showers in few confined
localities.There is the slight chance of an
afternoon thundershower over Trinidad.
TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Clear night.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:22PM
Date:Wednesday 20th of June 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 4.27am 5.44pm LOW 11.20am 11.12pm
Scarborough HIGH 4.10am 5.16pm LOW 11.03am 10.42pm
Date:
THURSDAY 21ST JUNE 2012
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA.
24hr Forecast:
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND AND IN THE NORTH.
Winds:
SOUTH - SOUTHEAST 5-15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
LIGHT CHOP - CHOPPY.
Outlook:
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY IS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 79W...ASSOCIATED TO
THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH 10-20
KT EASTERLY TRADES OBSERVED E OF 80W. JUST A PORTION OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM NRN
COLOMBIA TO WRN PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION REMAINS OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
8:05PM
.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVR THE WEEKEND AS NARROW
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RESULTING IN STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO TO COINCIDE WITH A SIG DROP
IN HUMIDITIES/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND ALSO WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS. GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUN WHEN AREA WILL BE
UNDER CONVERGENT SIDE OF TROF AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND PW VALUES BELOW TO 2SD BELOW NORMAL. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL HELP
DESICCATE BOTH LIVE AND DEAD FUELS WITH CONTINUED HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 23RD CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS RANKS AS THE FIFTH LONGEST STREAK
NOW TIED WITH 1983. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE
35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 26 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.
SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 6 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F AND THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 1983 WITH 7.
THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.
JUNE 2012 ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.8F DEGS.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
78W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN DUE TO SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THIS REGION. IMPACTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ERODES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...A FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...
HOWEVER SHOULD NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER REGIME. SO FAR
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT ANOTHER SAL EPISODE IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
OVERALL...CONTINUE TO EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION...PERHAPS SOME LINGERING HAZE THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITIONS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE AT 15G20KT WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. NEXT SIG SAHARAN DUST
HAZE EVENT IS XPCD ON WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUN DUE TO UNUSUAL COMBINATION OF VERY DRY FUELS...STRONG BREEZE...
LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z
JSJ RAOB SHOWS THAT SAL HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
AS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH DRIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS AND
THUS STEEPENING OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING RELATIVELY
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. OVERALL...THREAT IS GREATEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SUN WHEN LOWEST HUMIDITIES...STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 24TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE FIFTH LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 29 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.
SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 7 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 HAS NOW TIED JUNE OF 1983 FOR THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS. THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE
RECORDED.
JUNE 2012 ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.7F DEGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 80 / 0 10 0 10
STT 89 81 89 81 / 10 10 0 10
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND WRN CUBA. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING COVERS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING
DUST ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
2:05PM
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Sunday midday 12:00 l.t., June 24, 2012.
Issued: Saturday June 23, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
.SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy and mainly dry.
Tonight through Sunday midday: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a local shower.
Forecast high: 33°C and forecast low: 26°C.
Sunrise: 06:13 and sunset at 19:03.
Winds: East to Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong and near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).
Synopsis: An overall dry weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region during the next couple of days. Otherwise, the current haziness will gradually diminish with time during the forecast period meanwhile the wind stays moderate to fresh with above normal wave action.
Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. Bathers and boaters should be cautious especially on the south facing onshore and outer waters.
Significant Tropical Systems: An area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has a high potential for further development.
Special features: None.
Outlook until Monday midday: Generally partly cloudy and a few morning showers possible.
Forecaster: Luciano
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 23, 2012
A ridge of high pressure remains the dominant feature across the Eastern Caribbean. As a result, a relatively dry atmosphere is expected to be maintained during today. However, a weak trough approaching the Southern Windwards is expected to increase the chance for some showers here by later today into tonight with most of the significant shower activity expected across the extreme southern section of the island chain.
Slight to moderate sea conditions will be maintained during the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic will continue to move westward near 19 km/h.
Date:
SATURDAY 23RD JUNE 2012
Time:
12:10PM
General Situation:
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER OUR AREA...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY INLAND AND IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. (THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AT TIMES WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS)
Winds:
VARIABLE OR SOUTH 5-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
Sea State:
LIGHT CHOP BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES **SMALL CRAFT CAUTION**
Outlook:
(SUN AFTNN - MDDAY MON) CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N
OF 18N W OF 78W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND
FIELD FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OTHERWISE
...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE FAIR WEATHER IS
ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THIS REGION. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
8:05PM
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 65W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 15N65W 13N69W...TOWARD THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 29N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 29N63W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ
THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF
80W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.
8:05AM
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index