Forecasting the Forecasts

Fay Saturday Morning

Posted by: mcmurray02, 09:21 PM GMT del 16 Agosto 2008

Well, this morning there are some interesting looking satellite images of Fay. A lot of folks are confused about why the NHC has placed the center of circulation north of what most people consider the center. Take a look at this and see what you think:

I captured this frame right as the sun began to rise to allow the shadows of the storm clouds to be visible. As you'll see, there is a large plume of a very symmetrical circular south of the center that appears to have rotation. In fact it does have rotation, but its the upper level section of the storm, indicating that there is vertical displacement.

In this next shot, you can see where I think the rotation is occurring.

As you can see, I'm a little to the SW of the most recent plot. Both of these that I've placed here are taken pretty close together, but the sun angle is higher, and the details appear much differently.

One thing to take note is that weaker systems have the propensity to relocate their low level center of circulation to the point of highest convection. I don't think this will likely happen since the current one seems to be vigorous enough to stay put. I'd expect the two areas to become better aligned as the day progresses.

Finally, I've got to talk about how the track models has shifted back to the east some. There seems to be a swinging pendulum, on where this will go. It seems like FL is not going to be able to avoid this Fay.

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1. charlesimages 09:50 PM GMT del 16 Agosto 2008
Any relation to NASCAR driver Jamie McMurray? Member Since: Maggio 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29243

2. mcmurray02 09:52 PM GMT del 16 Agosto 2008
Quoting charlesimages: Any relation to NASCAR driver Jamie McMurray? Unfortunately, no. Member Since: Luglio 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 69

3. charlesimages 10:03 PM GMT del 16 Agosto 2008
Aww that's too bad. I wish I was down in FL right now watching Fay come in.. sigh but I live all the way up here in Michigan where storms seldom make it across the lake... Member Since: Maggio 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29243

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