Good evening everyone!
Ernesto: Hurricane Ernesto made landfall last night just north of Chetumal. A storm chaser in that area recorded a minimal central pressure of 975mb and there was a possibility that the storm was slightly stronger than the advisories put out by the NHC. Nevertheless, the storm is now emerging into the BOC, but due to a shift southward it will only be over water for a short period of time; not allowing for much strengthening. Because of this the NHC has reduced the intensity forecast to a tropical storm during its second landfall into Mexico. I agree with this assessment however, due to the uncertainty of the track and the current structure of the storm I would not be surprised if we saw a minimal Cat 1 hurricane just before landfall. Some of the global models including the GFS, and the CMC do bring Ernesto (or the remnants of Ernesto) back to life over the EPAC (Eastern Pacific Ocean). We will have to wait and see.
850 mb Vorticity over 92L.
SAL could possibly inhibit further development of 92L.
92L: Over the day today 92L has become more organized and the 850 mb vorticity values have increased. The system has also become less elongated in nature, however it is continuing to battle a significant amount of dry air in front of it. In order for this system to continue to develop it will first need to increase the amount of convection; which will be difficult to do because of the dry air in front of it. The models continue to have limited excitement about 92L however I think that if it can battle the dry air and fire off more convection, slow development is not out of the question.
GOM (Gulf of Mexico): Throughout the week some of the reliable global models have been hinting at a possible system developing close to home in the GOM; the CMC being one of them. Shear is currently about 30kt, but as Ernesto leaves stage left this could open up the door for a very conducive environment to form in the GOM. We should keep an eye on it for the time being.
Rest of the Atlantic: There is a rather vigorous tropical wave that will be coming off the coast of Africa sometime Friday. Most models including the GFS and ECMWF develop this area of disturbed weather rather quickly once it emerges into the Eastern Atlantic.
Thanks everyone for reading!
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones.