Invest 94E has been organizing at a steady rate over the past 1-2 days and now has a high (60%) chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon. Shear is marginal right now and should decrease along the disturbance's path, possibly allowing for a more swift intensification rate. Most models aim at the Pacific Coast of Mexico so chances are unsettled weather will target these shorelines...at the very least, all depending on how strong it gets. For now, it's just an area of interest but that may change pretty soon if 94E organizes much longer. Not a major imminent threat, just one to carefully monitor. There's another area of interest, Invest 95E, which has a much lower chance of development (10%) and all models steer it clear of any land impacts. For now, the biggest weather story is Invest 94L.
Model Consistency
Models are hinting at a possible system developing in the next week or two in the Caribbean and possibly affecting the US Gulf Coast. Intensity is widespread, from weak low to minimal hurricane. For now these are just models, nothing's out there yet, I just wanted to point it out since the Atlantic is (currently) quiet.
Have a great day and check back either tomorrow or on Friday for the latest on the tropics.
