hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Monitoring 2 Invests: Only May?
Posted by: hurricaneben, 07:13 PM GMT del 12 Maggio 2012 +0
It seems that this hurricane season is off to an early start. We are monitoring 2 invests. Both have strong possibilities of tropical cyclone formation. Here, we will discuss each of the individual systems' impacts on land--if any.

Invest 92L
I'll start with the Atlantic system: Invest 92L. This one has very high winds for an Invest: 45 to 50 MPH, near the surface. Development into a (sub)tropical storm by Monday seems like a pretty firm possibility at this time: the NHC puts it at a decent 40%, I say 50% since this is starting to undergo impressive bursts of organization. Residents in the Azores Islands should monitor the possibility of high winds and locally heavy downpours, but don't worry about making any preparations as it's not even a tropical cyclone yet. Threat scale: Low (very gusty winds, minor flooding, heavy rainfall, minimal risk of damage), and that's if it maintains its organization and/or develops further. Western shores of Europe could see impacts on their weather later in the week, but what exactly happens there (if anything at all) is unclear. There is no threat to the U.S. or their territories.

Invest 90E
Another system we're monitoring is Invest 90E. This one's chance of development is pretty much on par with 92L, with a 40% chance of TC formation by Monday. The only difference here is that there is absolutely no direct threat to any land masses, as this should remain well out at sea. Increased surf may pose a swimming hazard off the Pacific coast of Mexico, but that's about it--if at all. I wouldn't worry about any land impacts with this one, unless projected tracks and models shift significantly to the north and east. I do think that this has a firm shot at becoming TD-1E/TS Aletta by Monday and possibly near hurricane strength if conditions continue to be favorable, but there is only about 72-96 hours of highly favorable conditions so a hurricane is not a high probability at all, just an existent possibility.

Brief Summary
There are 2 areas of interest which has a fairly strong probability of development, but neither pose a threat to the US and only one has any concerns of land impacts--even so, the impacts should be limited and on the low side if at all.
  Permalink | A A A

No reader comments have been posted for this blog entry yet.

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
Local Weather
Scattered Clouds
89 °F
Nubi sparse
Community Activity