Out To Sea, Beryl!
I'm very sorry about being missing while Tropical Storm Beryl was causing problems (and some positive drought relief) in Florida and Georgia, as I was first on vacation in Key West with my family then studying for final exams. But I'm back for a quick update on Beryl, which is now a post-tropical cyclone and departing land on its voyage out to sea. After delivering heavy rainfall and decent flooding to much of the Southeast U.S., conditions are improving throughout and Beryl is weak with 40 MPH winds so nobody does not need to worry about her any longer. Also, on Saturday, I paid a visit with my father and friends to the National Weather Service office (and NHC) just as they were tracking Beryl. I met some nice people there, such as Robert Molleda a warning coordination meteorologist. I just wanted to briefly share my experience too. I'll have a blog post sometime over the next couple of days for sure, even though the tropics are starting to finally relax, hopefully for good.
STS Beryl A Threat To Southeast US Coast
As Bud weakens into a tropical depression over Mexico, Subtropical Storm Beryl has formed overnight with winds of 45 MPH and is headed WSW at a rather slow 5 MPH. Let's discuss Beryl, it is not expected to undergo any significant change in strength--it might strengthen slightly before making landfall tomorrow night somewhere along the coast of Georgia or in North Florida as a tropical storm. It is something everyone from Charleston to Cape Canaveral should monitor for a wind and rain event. The areas hard hit by drought may get a decent pack of rainfall, but not quite enough to fully relieve their condition. Still it's definitely going to be a wet and windy Memorial Day weekend, which is unfortunate for tourists and beach-goers in the Jacksonville area who want to have a sunny regular weekend.
Yet Another TS Forming Off SE US Coast, Bud Rampages Mexico
I seriously apologize for being absent from blogging over the past several days as I've been terribly sick with a dangerous fever. This post will be shorter than most. Let's catch up.
we have Invest 94L currently over the Atlantic which is just a notch away from becoming yet another tropical storm--and the season hasn't started yet. It is forecast to loop around and make landfall somewhere in the Southeast US Coast from Jacksonville towards North Carolina and likely as (sub)tropical storm Beryl. Alberto didn't do much other than some minor coastal flooding, but Beryl may bring a bit more in the way of damage especially if this becomes yet another tropical storm. Still won't be much other than strong winds and locally heavy downpours.
Hurricane Bud has just made landfall in the Manzanillo area as a category one with 75 MPH winds. Excessive rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches, locally over 20 inches, is occurring and destructive flooding is unfortunately a concern along with the landslides. Bud is expected to make an odd turn and steadily weaken as it remains inland.
Hope you enjoyed my post and acknowledge my recovering sickness.
TS Alberto Forms Off SC Coastline
As the first off-season tropical storm since Arthur (2008), Tropical Storm Alberto has officially formed this afternoon with winds up in 45 MPH. Interests in South Carolina and North Carolina should just occasionally keep updated with the progress of Alberto as this loops around and is forecast to pass just offshore these coastlines in the next few days. It's not an immediate major threat to land but a tropical storm watch is up for off the coast of South Carolina as a precaution, and fairly windy conditions with minor coastal flooding may pose threats to beach communities, if not handled in the right way. Watches may be extended and issued for North Carolina, if the threat of increased winds and rainfall somewhat increase. I'll keep an eye on the developing situation and have a post tomorrow, regarding impacts from Charleston to Wilmington and the Outer Banks.
Tracking TS Aletta & Invest 92E
As Tropical Storm Aletta starts to show signs of weakening, Invest 92E has popped up and could develop potentially into a tropical cyclone and (perhaps?) even something more over the next few days--but neither pose an immediate threat to land, 92E would be a bit of a bigger concern overall.
Tropical Storm Aletta
At 500 PM EDT...Tropical Storm Aletta had winds around 40 MPH--so it's down just a notch from its peak this morning of 45 MPH, but that's not much. Further weakening is expected and this will likely not be around by the time the weekend rolls in through. It poses no threat to land, so there's not much to talk about.
This one's closer to land, so it's a slightly bigger threat overall, but not by a whole lot. It's only a tropical disturbance now so nobody should be worried about any major impacts. Gradual to steady development is anticipated and there is a very firm chance that we will see this form into a tropical cyclone by the weekend, if not sooner. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Friday, I'd put it at 40-50% for that time frame given its organization rate. Still, this should not do much to the Pacific Coast of Mexico depending on how strong it gets--it is still forecast to generally remain offshore by models and I doubt it'll do much to anyone expect for deliver rain and increased surf to Mexico in the short term, I wouldn't be very concerned about a system so weak and offshore, but I'll keep an eye for any changes in impacts and intensity.
There's not much to talk about, although models still hint at something developing in the Caribbean about 4-6 days out, it's only models so we'll just have to wait and see. A weak low pressure system could bring rounds of wet weather to the Florida Peninsula in the next day or two...so more rain is on the way, and that's mostly good thing, but don't expect tropical development in this area in the immediate future.
Updated: 09:01 PM GMT del 16 Maggio 2012
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TS Aletta Now In The EPAC
After further strengthening, we now have Tropical Storm Aletta which was upgraded last night. Winds are around 40 MPH and further strengthening is expected before conditions become less favorable tonight. We might see this peak with winds at 50 MPH, although that may be a bit overdone as it was slightly slacking off after the upgrade. Still, it doesn't pose any sort of threat to land so for now--it's just one to watch, not because of any threat to land but just to keep up with the tropical picture. I'll have an update tomorrow.
TD-1E Forms, Should Pose No Threat
While Invest 92L seems to be fading out of the picture, we now have our first tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season--and it's not a threat to land, just a day before the actual season starts in that basin. It is packing winds of around 35 MPH and moving due west at 8 MPH. It should remain well out at sea and no land masses stand in the direct path of this system. Gradual strengthening is expected and this should attain tropical storm status as early as tonight then maybe get a bit beyond that--likely peaking at 45 to 50 MPH before conditions start to become less favorable for development in the latter part of the day tomorrow. Nonetheless, this should remain a fish storm and only threaten shipping interests over the open Pacific waters. I wouldn't worry at all about any land impacts other than slightly increased surf off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. I'll have an update tomorrow (either morning or afternoon).
Invest 90E Thrives, 92L Struggles
It's been a battle in the tropics of who can achieve tropical depression status first--and right now it definitely appears that 90E is winning, which may not earn everyone's concern since 90E does not appear to be a present threat to land.
Invest 90E is packing winds of 30 MPH, which is still weaker than 92L but 90E has been somewhat organizing as of recently and trying to get its act together. It's not failing at what it's doing, and it does seem to be working it's way toward TD status, which is certainly becoming more and more possible. The NHC now gives it a 50% chance of TC formation by Tuesday, which is up from 40%. I don't see any reason to worry about 90E because it's not a threat to land whatsoever...at least not directly, and even if this one strengthens even more than anticipated, don't get yourself stressed out over a storm that poses no threat.
Invest 92L is not completely out of the woods, but it's close to being so and now TC formation from this one is definitely not looking as likely as earlier. It now has only a 20% chance of TC formation by Tuesday and the way things are being setup, I'm not worrying about TS Alberto forming from 92L. Residents in Azores Islands and western shorelines of Europe may be relieved that no tropical storm/hurricane is coming their way but 1-2 days of moderate rainfall and occasionally gusty winds should impact their start to the workweek, not a major threat though.
Caribbean development models have been on and off with the developing Caribbean tropical cyclone prediction for next week. Fairly warm SST's could help support some decent development but don't expect anything beyond a weak to moderate tropical storm if at all. I won't worry about that yet. A wave near the Lesser Antilles is bringing unwelcome rainfall, as flooding has been an issue in some of these islands this past week. It poses no short term threat of development, but I'll watch what it brings and if it brings anything significant to anyone.
Monitoring 2 Invests: Only May?
It seems that this hurricane season is off to an early start. We are monitoring 2 invests. Both have strong possibilities of tropical cyclone formation. Here, we will discuss each of the individual systems' impacts on land--if any.
I'll start with the Atlantic system: Invest 92L. This one has very high winds for an Invest: 45 to 50 MPH, near the surface. Development into a (sub)tropical storm by Monday seems like a pretty firm possibility at this time: the NHC puts it at a decent 40%, I say 50% since this is starting to undergo impressive bursts of organization. Residents in the Azores Islands should monitor the possibility of high winds and locally heavy downpours, but don't worry about making any preparations as it's not even a tropical cyclone yet. Threat scale: Low (very gusty winds, minor flooding, heavy rainfall, minimal risk of damage), and that's if it maintains its organization and/or develops further. Western shores of Europe could see impacts on their weather later in the week, but what exactly happens there (if anything at all) is unclear. There is no threat to the U.S. or their territories.
Another system we're monitoring is Invest 90E. This one's chance of development is pretty much on par with 92L, with a 40% chance of TC formation by Monday. The only difference here is that there is absolutely no direct threat to any land masses, as this should remain well out at sea. Increased surf may pose a swimming hazard off the Pacific coast of Mexico, but that's about it--if at all. I wouldn't worry about any land impacts with this one, unless projected tracks and models shift significantly to the north and east. I do think that this has a firm shot at becoming TD-1E/TS Aletta by Monday and possibly near hurricane strength if conditions continue to be favorable, but there is only about 72-96 hours of highly favorable conditions so a hurricane is not a high probability at all, just an existent possibility.
There are 2 areas of interest which has a fairly strong probability of development, but neither pose a threat to the US and only one has any concerns of land impacts--even so, the impacts should be limited and on the low side if at all.
Invest 90E Could Develop, But Poses No Threat
Hello, this is my first REAL tropical post of the year and yes it's a bit early but we do have an area of interest in the Eastern Pacific to talk about and we will also briefly discuss the potential for a tropical system in the Caribbean within' the next 1 to 2 weeks.
First, let's discuss Invest 90E. It's in the Eastern Pacific, under generally favorable conditions for this time of the year, and the conditions are favorable enough to support gradual development with this one. There are some other blobs that could prevent it from major significant organization in the short run, but the location and time of year has helped generate other tropical cyclones in the past. It poses no threat to land, so no land masses have to worry about any impacts, but decently above average SSTs should help allow some gradual development and there is a chance--not a very high one, but it's still out there--that we could see this develop into Tropical Storm Aletta as early as Sunday. I'm not going to mention this becoming a hurricane that quick, but if this manages to persist long enough, a tropical cyclone is definitely a firm possibility. The NHC hasn't tagged this one in their Tropical Weather Outlook yet, they will likely say something soon.
Models have been hinting at the development of a tropical cyclone in the next week for quite some time now, and conditions aren't highly unfavorable for something to somewhat get its act together as an organized low or possibly even a TD/TS. I'm not fully buying the models yet, but I'll monitor the tropical situations in case something does pan out. Cuba and Florida are in the biggest line of fire for this hypothetical tropical system, and heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat. Keep updated, I'll post tomorrow or on Sunday...if the post is allowed through my computer.