"...CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NAM, ECMWF ensembles, GFS ensembles, UKMET all develop 95L into a Tropical Storm, only the NOGAPS doesn't develop 95L into Arlene and should be considered the outsider. 95L has also gotten somewhat better organized overnight, with convection developing over the low pressure area..."
And still forecast to go into Mexico.
Recon flight is out, still lloking for center.
But in the meantime, there's the latest TWO:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
70%. But the HH may find enought support to go straight to Arlene. We'll wait...
UPDATE:
Based upon the latest data set coming in from the Hurricane Hunters, it now appears that a closed surface circulation has developed as several westerly wind reports are coming in, albeit weak. Given all the data available thus far, it appears that we now have Tropical Depression 1.
And then there's this:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
We'll have TD1 or Arlene by morning.
