Update Tues afternoon
The storms are still on track and beginning to form to the west. The eastern shore still has a large storm system effecting them. I do wonder if that ongoing system will take any energy away from our area. If so, it could mean less storms for central MD. But we shall see. Definitely keep an eye on the sky as conditions can change rapidly. Thus far there are no watches or warnings for central or southern MD.
original post Tues morning
It still looks good for storms later this afternoon. The morning rain in central MD was nice to hear, and needed for the ground, but could have dampened some of the storms later today. Last Friday was a similar set up wherein the morning rains took away instability needed for afternoon storms. As this may be the case today, there are some differences from last Friday, and so I still see a chance for storms. As I mentioned in yesterday's post, the amount of cloud cover will be a determining factor. Too much clouds and we will see rain and not storms. Breaks in the clouds will allow for the heating of the atmosphere and add to the instability. I do believe there will be breaks in the clouds and so see a chance for storms
TIMING: Off and on rain is possible all day, although heaviest rains and storm possibilities will be after 2:00pm lingering into the evening hours.
THREATS: Wind and tornadoes are the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us in a 5% risk for tornadoes.
TROPICS: Nothing to affect Maryland
WINTER: Just a quick note here as discussion has already appeared in local print and media. Those who follow me know I am not a fan of long-range forecasting nor is climatology my forte (snow and storms are), but, it does appear that we are entering an el Nino pattern which typically means snow and cold for this region. Last year's non-winter was due to a strong la Nina. There is also a study out there mentioning that the loss of arctic ice could effect atmospheric dimensions whereby lowering the nao (briefly, an indicator used to forecast potential for storms coming up the coast. A low nao allows storms to ride the coast, bringing us large amounts of snow). So, from my perspective, I see us having a normal winter, which includes snow and cold with the chance for a couple good storms. But we shall see.....
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