Central MD Weather Conditions

stormy pattern this week

Posted by: cws6196, 04:11 AM GMT del 31 Luglio 2012

We are stuck in the same weather pattern most of the week. A Bermuda high just off the coast coupled with low pressure disturbances moving in the area from the Great Lakes along with what is termed an upper level trough (as the wind moves from the west to the east it tends to either bow down, like a feeding trough, or bow upward called a ridge) will aid in the dynamics which will allow for scattered storms. This pattern stays the same for the rest of this week. Therefore, we could see, with the heating of the days, storms forming in the afternoons. Most storm activity will fade in the evening as the heating of the day cools. Wednesday we should see more storms as a cold front moves into the area adding to the dynamics already in place. So, for the rest of this week we can expect scattered thunderstorms each afternoon. I will talk more about Wednesday later on Tuesday. These scattered storms could be slow movers and therefore dump a lot of rain. Wind and lightning will be the other major threats.

Concerning the tropics, thus far there are a couple areas of interest, but nothing close to us. One of the areas of interest, now termed Invest 99L, looks interesting as some of the early models have it moving toward the eastern seaboard, but this is way too early to talk about anything definite. But know I will be following it and will let you know if I think it is something for us to be concerned about here in MD.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits of info.

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Thurs heat and storms

Posted by: cws6196, 02:23 AM GMT del 26 Luglio 2012

The NWS has issued a heat advisory for us for Thurs from noon until 8:00 pm. Just to our north in PA they will be experiencing strong to severe storms as low pressure and a cold front moves in from the Great Lakes. I dont believe the front will sag far enough south for us to see severe storms, but know we are quite close so any shift could bring the severe weather into central MD. Southern MD should miss the severe weather, but due to the heat and humidity pop up storms are possible. So, keep an eye on the sky, but I still believe the severe weather will stay in PA. I will have another update as is necessary.

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Tues storms & derecho

Posted by: cws6196, 01:35 PM GMT del 24 Luglio 2012

Well, as I look over things it appears what I previously posted is still valid. Storms later today, mainly west and south of Baltimore, yet pop up storms are possible north. The cold front sliding in from OH is responsible for this weather today.

What about the derecho? It is possible, not guaranteed. I do see some of the elements already coming together in the Chicago area. Derechos need a good jet stream upon which to ride, and that seems to exist today. "IF" it does develop, the path should take it into VA, but Southern MD needs to be aware of this as well, since any shift in direction would have it over southern Charles co and into St. Mary's co.

TIMING: Most storm activity should be later in the afternoon, although some pop up storms could hit after 1:00pm. If the derecho forms it wont be in the area until early evening. Remember, derecho aside, most of the storm activity should remain west and south of Baltimore.

THREATS: Strong wind gusts, hail, possible derecho

Currently there are no watches/warnings. These may be posted later in the day. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone will be updated as needed (443-470-9804).

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rumor

Posted by: cws6196, 04:15 AM GMT del 24 Luglio 2012

Well, unfortunately on Monday the bulk of the storms stayed away from MD while effecting PA and VA. Not that I want us to necessarily see storms, but we do need the rain.

I will have a more complete update later Tuesday morning, but Tuesday has a good chance for severe weather as a cold front drops in from the north. Much of the action may be in Southern MD, but central MD could see storms as well. At this time I see storms in central MD after 1:00pm and later in the afternoon in southern MD.

Why did I call this post "rumor"? A respected meteorologist, pointing to one of the models, is talking about a possible derecho on Tuesday. Now, I am not at all saying that I know better than a professional, nor am I saying he is wrong, but I am saying that forecasting a derecho, which is typically a rare occurrence, is not easy. Especially this far out. I have looked over the data he is indicating, and as I do see potential I am not as yet convinced. If it were to come about, the projected path would have it effecting VA and Southern MD. I need to look at the models and the radar Tuesday morning to have a better idea what is happening.

Nonetheless, there is a threat for storms Tues and I will have an update later in the morning.

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autumn in July in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 02:03 PM GMT del 22 Luglio 2012

I must say, not only was yesterday's rain needed, but the day felt like an autumn day, not a July day in Maryland. Just last week we were sweltering in high humidity and high temps. Gotta love nature! Today will be another cool and cloudy day, but no rain (although we still need lots of rain). As the high pressure system moves off the coast the clockwise rotation will break the current cold air damming effect and allow for warmer temps as the back end of the spin brings up warmer southern air. Later in the week a cold front will bring unsettled weather again, but for now, all's quiet this Sunday. For those along the Bay, there is a coastal flood watch in effect for the next high tide.

On a non-weather related and self promotion note, I have begun a blog writing venture reflecting on life from a socio-spiritual viewpoint. Check it out and spread the word: www.lifesjourneyblog.com. Of course I am still doing my weather posts; that will always remain.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and information. When storms approach, my Weather Phone will be updated (443-470-9804).

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Friday storms

Posted by: cws6196, 01:58 PM GMT del 20 Luglio 2012

update Fri afternoon
I'm sure most of you aren't complaining about the cloud cover and cooler temps. It appears the boundary remains stationary and the cloud cover will not dissipate. What this means is scattered rain this afternoon and scattered thunderstorms earlier in the evening. Storms which do develop should not be severe. The main threat remains heavy rainfall. So just because you don't yet see storms doesn't mean they aren't coming, but I do believe they will be less intense than we have seen these past couple days.

Continue to follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated (443-470-9804).

original post Fri morning
All I can say is, if you don't want severe storms hope for the cloud cover to remain. Today's forecast is similar to yesterday's, although the threat is now greater for Southern MD than it has been. As the boundary I mentioned yesterday slowly moves into the area, storms ahead of the front fire up. Since the front is shifting more to the SE, Southern MD is closer to the action. But, all of central MD is in for the action. This unknown today is the cloud cover. If the clouds break and the sun comes out to heat the atmosphere the storms could be stronger. If it stays cloudy the storms should be weaker.

TIMING: Scattered rain is possible all day, although the storms should be after 1:00pm into the evening.

THREATS: Heavy rainfall and flash flooding, strong wind and hail.

We have a Flash Flood Watch issued from noon until later this evening. Thunderstorm products could be issued later today. I will post updates as needed.

Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates and weather info. My Weather Phone is updated (443-470-9804).

Updated: 06:54 PM GMT del 20 Luglio 2012

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more storms Thurs

Posted by: cws6196, 02:05 PM GMT del 19 Luglio 2012

Well, the good news is that it will be a bit cooler today than yesterday, but there is still the chance for storms later today. The cold front remains over PA and will drop towards MD than stop. The stationary nature of the boundary is one of the factors keeping us in a stormy pattern. Until that front moves down through MD the temps will remain hot and storms possible through Saturday. Other factors influencing storm development today are the humidity, dew points, a low pressure system to our west, and the remnants of storms from OH moving this way. Most of today there will be a layer of clouds, so maybe the temps and instability will be a bit lower, but not much.

TIMING: Primarily after 3:00pm into the evening. Most of the storms should occur in the same places as yesterday, but everyone in central and southern MD have the potential for storms.

THREATS: Strong winds and flash floods. Some potential for hail, but wind and rain amount is a greater threat today.

Thus far there are no watches/warnings, although I expect at least a thunderstorm watch to be issued later. In some areas you could also have flood or flash flood products issued.

I will update you as necessary. For frequent updates and storm progress follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated (443-470-9804).

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Wed heat & storms

Posted by: cws6196, 02:06 PM GMT del 18 Luglio 2012

update Wed afternoon
As I look at the current radar and the line of storms in PA moving to the SE I see some strong cells. A look at the recent data and new advisories from the SPC, and I would now add a slight, but there, risk for tornadoes primarily NE of Baltimore City (E Balt Co, Harford & Cecil). The rest of my previous post remains the same. For everyone in MD, keep an eye on the sky and be careful of any thunderstorms which form.

Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd or www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for continuing updates. My Weather Phone is also updated (443-470-9804).

original post Wed morning
It is another hot one! The NWS has issued a heat advisory for us from 11:00am-9:00pm. The increased heat and moisture (humidity) being pumped in from the SE will add to an unstable atmosphere this afternoon. Entering that instability is a cold front from the OH valley. As the front approaches us from the NW it will trigger storms. The front will be with us a couple days, allowing for storms through Friday. But, the good news is that this cold front will bring down the temps and humidity.

TIMING: Most of the storm activity should start after 3:00pm today, but some cells to the west could start a bit earlier.

LOCATIONS: The stronger storms should effect western and central MD, although southern MD is not in the clear, but the bulk of the storms will stay in central MD.

THREATS: Strong wind gusts and hail are the main threats. We shouldn't see any tornado activity. But always be prepared.

If any watches or warnings are issued I will keep you posted. I would expect at least a thunderstorm watch to be issued, but right now there is only the heat advisory. Keep an eye on the sky! Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).

Updated: 06:13 PM GMT del 18 Luglio 2012

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scattered rain

Posted by: cws6196, 03:14 PM GMT del 14 Luglio 2012

Yes, I know it is the weekend, but we really need rain, especially those in Southern MD. Today, and most of next week, each day is a chance for rain. Today is a chance for scattered rain and possible thunderstorms later in the afternoon. I wouldn't change any of my plans, but keep an eye on the sky. Remember, if you can hear the thunder, no matter what the sky looks like above you, you could be hit by lightning. Stay safe out there.

The tropics are quite calm, and I expect that to remain as such, but just know that August and September are the more active months. Those of you reading my posts for some time know that I am not a fan of long-range climatology predictions, but right now the data is indicating a return to an El Nino pattern. For us in MD that typically indicates a return to a "normal" winter with a possibility for snow storms. Last winter was a La Nina winter while the winter we had the multiple blizzards was an El Nino winter. Not saying that will again happen, just making comparisons.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).

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Sunday storms in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 09:42 PM GMT del 07 Luglio 2012

I hope you are staying cool. There is a slight chance for the current storms in PA to move into Harford and Cecil Co. The main issue is tomorrow. As I mentioned earlier this morning, a cold front will move into the area tomorrow evening. As we all know, cold air hitting moist warm air is part of a set up for strong storms. Given the projected heating of the day tomorrow, coupled with the heating and moisture these past few days, the storms may have enough "fuel" to continue well past sunset.

TIMING

Most of the storm activity will occur in Central MD after 2:00pm; in Southern MD after 5:00pm or so. There could be some scattered storms earlier in the day.

THREATS

The main threats will be damaging winds and hail. Lightning could be plentiful, so stay indoors as soon as you hear thunder.

If conditions change I will have another update Sunday morning; otherwise, plan on watching the sky for strong storms. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates and weather info.

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4th of July storms

Posted by: cws6196, 03:22 PM GMT del 04 Luglio 2012

There is nothing currently on the radar, and the cloud cover will be retreating, leaving us with lots of sun and heat. As the day heats, the rising air causes the atmosphere to become unstable, and with an upper level disturbance moving in later this afternoon, storms are possible.

TIMING

Late afternoon into the early evening. Storms should end as the sun goes down.

TYPE

These will be pop up type storms, so keep an eye on the sky if you are outside. Remember, if you can hear the thunder, you can be hit by lightning, even if there is no storm over you.

THREATS

Destructive wind gusts and hail.

I will update you if there are any changes, watches or warnings issued. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd)

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more wind for Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 03:42 PM GMT del 03 Luglio 2012

UPDATE Tues afternoon

As I look at the latest data, I am currently leaning toward a combo solution of my first two scenarios I mentioned this morning, namely, scattered storms. The system in OH is moving into PA and could drop some storms into northern MD, but not at all similar to last Friday (although there is strong wind associated with these storms).

TIMING

Most of the storm activity will be after 7:00pm and again after midnight.

THREATS

Strong damaging winds and hail will be the main threats.

If any of this changes I will let you know. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent updates.

original post
There are a lot of "potentials" out there today and tomorrow, but nailing down anything too definite is not easy. Unstable atmospheres don't always react as predicted by computer models. Right now I have some concerns, especially for another wind event. Here are some things I know and some possibilities.

WHAT I KNOW

Today sees a return to the heat and humidity, increasing tomorrow. I expect to see NWS issue a heat advisory for tomorrow. There is a chance for scattered storms later this evening, and on the 4th we are looking at chances for storms after noon.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR TODAY

1. Scattered storms form after 6:00pm due to the heat and upper level disturbances.
2. Clouds form later in the afternoon in advance of the current OH storm, inhibiting instability in the atmosphere and thus cutting down on storm potential for this evening.
3. The system currently in OH continues to develop and heads toward DC and MD, similar to last Friday. "IF" this develops I see it hitting DC, Baltimore City/county into Harford and Cecil. Not too sure about Southern MD given the current track, but the potential exists. Too early to tell.

UPDATES

I will keep an eye on this and update you as these scenarios play out. Just know this; it could be rough later today.

Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd or www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for updates and weather information.

Updated: 07:37 PM GMT del 03 Luglio 2012

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4th of July storms

Posted by: cws6196, 03:36 PM GMT del 02 Luglio 2012

I know most are sick of the storms, especially if you still don't have power. But, unfortunately, there is more to come. It appears the bulk of the storms early this morning hit Southern MD with damaging winds again. Today will be hot, but a bit cooler than the weekend. Storms are possible late tonight into the early morning, but again the bulk of the storms will be in Southern MD. Those who do see storms tonight will again experience strong winds and hail. Theses will be scattered though.

The bigger concern I have is for the 4th. Right now it looks like we will see heat indices in the 100s and upper level disturbances which could bring severe storms late on the 4th. I expect there to be heat advisories issued for Wed. More to come on that tomorrow.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).

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About cws6196

I host a Weather Phone: 443-470-9804 & email list for people in MD. Follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD. I am also a Skywarn spotter & CoCoRaHS observer.

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