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Slight Risk Friday

Posted by: beell, 01:10 PM GMT del 22 Settembre 2011

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ON FRIDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS AND FEATURE A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE ERN FLANK OF THE LARGE
MIDWEST TROUGH WILL LIE IN QUASI-STATIONARY FASHION TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN CREST...FROM WRN PA SWD AND SWWD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PW AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUSTAINED BY WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED AMIDST THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. EPISODIC SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY HEAVY...ARE LIKELY TO PLAGUE AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE
ERN FLANK OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND AID DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD.

...CAROLINAS TO DELMARVA...
IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT COULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL INFLUENCES THAT ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTED IN LATEST
GUIDANCE. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY MOIST BUT
GENERALLY LOW-CAPE AIR MASS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. IF POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-HEATING CAN DEVELOP...LOCALLY
GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED. FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE A
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BEING DEPICTED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT WEAK SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...OR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ANY SUCH
DEVELOPMENT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND...IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION...SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO EVENT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE
PRUDENT TO REFRAIN FROM OVER FORECASTING THIS LOW-POTENTIAL SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 09/22/2011

Unofficial Slight Risk Area:
Friday, 4PM EDT

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1. atmoaggie 02:14 PM GMT del 22 Settembre 2011
Hi beell. Would you please lick your elbow? Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2. beell 02:34 PM GMT del 22 Settembre 2011
Done. Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

3. shoreacres 01:01 PM GMT del 23 Settembre 2011
Well, I'm not sure we ought to be sending all our rich moisture off to other folks, but so be it. That bit about the "weak but persistent" southerly flow tickles me. It's sort of a meteorological version of the tortoise and the hare. ;-) Have a good one! Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14799

4. Barefootontherocks 01:14 PM GMT del 23 Settembre 2011
[in Lakota; subtitled] Dances With Wolves! I am Wind In His Hair. Do you see that I am your friend? Can you see that you will always be my friend? Member Since: Aprile 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16333

5. seflagamma 01:02 AM GMT del 23 Dicembre 2011
Hello Beel, Hope you check back in someday... From our Home to Yours Merry Christmas and a Healthy & Happy New Year 2012! "And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled, till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn%u2019t before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn%u2019t come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more." - Dr. Seuss Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

6. Ylee 11:30 AM GMT del 23 Dicembre 2011
Hi, Beell, wishing you and yours Peace, and a very merry Christmas! Member Since: Febbraio 3, 2011 Posts: 65 Comments: 11330

7. Proserpina 04:55 PM GMT del 23 Dicembre 2011
Merry Christmas Beell and family. Member Since: Maggio 6, 2008 Posts: 152 Comments: 16737

8. juslivn 02:57 PM GMT del 24 Dicembre 2011
"> Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 73 Comments: 9052

9. AllyBama 03:56 PM GMT del 24 Dicembre 2011
Merry Christmas beell! Well, looks like it is a no=go on the snow again this year - but at least we got sunshin glitter-graphics.come today instead of gloomy skies! Rudolph should have no problem finding his way around in my area this year. HO! Ho! HO! Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

10. Proserpina 11:08 PM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Member Since: Maggio 6, 2008 Posts: 152 Comments: 16737

11. Barefootontherocks 05:03 AM GMT del 17 Marzo 2012
Member Since: Aprile 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16333

12. seflagamma 03:53 PM GMT del 17 Marzo 2012
Hello Beel, Hope you come back soon! Happy St Patti's Day! St Patricks Day Graphics Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

13. juslivn 04:35 AM GMT del 08 Aprile 2012
">"> Member Since: Agosto 20, 2009 Posts: 73 Comments: 9052

14. shoreacres 12:22 AM GMT del 09 Aprile 2012
Here's a little something for your Easter basket from the Geek Bunny. After all, the Bunny knows that Geeks need love, too! Hope your Easter was a happy one! (And no, I don't have a photo of the Geek Bunny. I can only imagine...) Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14799

15. beell 01:20 AM GMT del 09 Aprile 2012
I'm one holiday behind, gamma! Happy St. Patrick's Day! And Happy Easter. There...now you're one holiday behind, lol. Hi, jus, Same to you and yours. It was a lovely family day here. Hiya, shore. Shades of S. Kubrick's "A Clockwork Orange"? A neat egg-thanks! Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

16. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 12:20 PM GMT del 11 Dicembre 2012
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