Posted by:WxGeekVA, 06:53 PM GMT del 12 Maggio 2012
This morning the National Hurricane Center tagged the third invest of the 2012 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. This invest, which has been designated 92L, is currently located at 33.5N and 30.5W, just southwest of the Azores in the Northeastern Atlantic. The system is producing moderate convection which has wrapped around the low level circulation center.
Visible imagery as of 230PM EST for 92L
I'll be back at some point with an update on this later tonight.
The system is currently in slightly favorable conditions for development with shear around 20kts and water temperatures around 21C, which is slightly favorable for subtropical development. The NHC has recognized this and has given it a 40% (Moderate) chance of developing into a subtropical system over the next 48 hours.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Current location and computer models for 92L
I give 92L a 70% chance as the persistence of the convection and the speed at which it has gotten itself together is indicative of a developing system. If the system does develop consensus is that it will move slowly southeastward and then make a turn and accelerate to the northeast while weakening.
Current ATCF file has 92L meeting criteria for an upgade, so we shall see if this does become Alberto later today.