Gulf Stream Oscillation and North Atlantic Ocean Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Oscillation
GULF STREAM AND NORTH ATLANTIC EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY AND TRACK SCALE
MAJOR – EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE HAS POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 24 HOUR PERIOD
MODERATE – EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 24 HOUR PERIOD
MINIMAL – EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NO POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 24 HOUR PERIOD
There is a major interaction between the gulf stream baroclinic zone and the intensification and track of extratropical cyclones during the winter season. Given an intense arctic outbreak, this natural baroclinic zone naturally strengthens given the difference between air and water temperatures. The lack of an arctic outbreak, the intensity prediction scale is at minimal stages given that there is no stark difference between oceanic and atmospheric temperatures, giving the fact of minimal instability. There is one more key ingredient and that is the presence of an intense 500mb energetic disturbance. Intense extratropical cyclones thrive in a highly divergent upper level jet stream pattern, allowing the surface air to escape the column giving an intense pressure drop. The more intense this jet streak is, the more potent the intensification period will become. A few case studies will prove that not only oceanic temperatures will play a major role in a winter storm’s track, but the presence of an intense 500mb jet disturbance and the axis of an upper level trough. Given weak 500mb jet dynamics, a weak baroclinic zone (given that SSTs and atmospheric temperatures have a 5F or less difference), and the gulf stream water temps are warmest in the east based index, a minimal extratropical cyclone will likely exist.
Given intense 500mb jet dynamics, a strong west based GSO index and an intense 15F or greater delta t within the GS baroclinic zone, we will likely have a major in our index. Given that the interaction of a 500mb jet disturbance and the likelihood of an intense baroclinic zone are quite rare occurrences and that they are hard to predict outside of 24 hours, this lends us to believe that this index is quite hard to achieve given the perfect modeled conditions. Predictability and use of this index and intensity scale are experimental given that models are experimental in nature. The best way to use this index is too predict the presence of the 500mb disturbance through a modeled mean, taking the results of at least several short and long term meteorological model forecasts.
There is still a lot more to this theory I need to work on it is a work in progress, but I will have it done in the future and will use it for forecasting snowfall this winter season.
