Steve's WunderBlog

2012: 2nd Warmest Year on Record

Posted by: SteveDa1, 07:15 PM GMT del 04 Gennaio 2013

8.5 C Annual Average for 2012 in Montreal, Quebec
As was expected, 2012 ended up being the second warmest year on record for the metropolitan area in which I live in: Montreal, Quebec. Astonishingly, 9 of the 11 warmest years since record-keeping began in 1942 have all followed 1997. In fact, the average annual temperature has risen by almost 2 C (3.6 F) since the 1970's, up from a five-year average of 5.72 C in 1975 to a present-day five-year average of 7.68 C. As bleak as this rapid rise sounds, it is real and indications tell us that it's only the beginning. On current trends, the average annual temperature will approach 10 C (50 F) by 2050, an average presently found hundreds of kilometres to our south. This poses serious to potentially catastrophic consequences to local agriculture, plants, insects, birds, and ultimately, us.

Top 10 Warmest Years on Record
1. 1998, 8.6 C
2. 2012, 8.5 C
3. 2010, 8.4 C
4. 1953, 8.3 C
5. 1999, 8.2 C
6. 2006, 8.1 C
7. 2001 and 2011, 7.9 C
8. 1949, 7.7 C
9. 2002, 7.5 C
10. 2005, 7.4 C

Click for larger resolution.
Figure 1: Purplish line shows trend of mean annual temperatures since 1942 which rises by approximately 1-degree Celsius per 100 years or 0.107 C/decade. The orange line shows a much more dramatic rise of over 1-degree Celsius every 20 years or 0.522 C/decade. It, however, begins around when the annual temperature began its familiar climb to where it is today. One may have noticed how two spikes in temperature have occurred long before it has started warming significantly, but they are not nearly as prolonged and significant as the ones we are witnessing today and have everything to do with natural variances in year-to-year weather patterns.

November and December 2012 Anomalies in Precipitation
After registering a mere 13.6 mm of precipitation in November 2012, a record for the month, yet another, yet distinct record-breaking 164.8 mm fell during the month of December 2012. In fact, November 2012 was the 6th driest month ever. August 1957 holds the record when a gigantic volume of 0.5 mm(yes, zero.five)(0.02 in) of rain fell. December 2012 ended up being the 15th wettest month on record. September 1975 holds the record for wettest month ever when 227.6 mm(8.96 in) of rain fell. An amazing 25 out of 31 days saw at least a trace of precipitation in December 2012.

Extreme Warming of Labrador Coast
Another area's temperature I have graphed is a tiny village located on the shores of the Labrador Sea called Cartwright in the province of Newfounland and Labrador.

Click for larger resolution.
Figure 2: Orange trend line begins in 1982 and extends to 2012. It portrays a significant rise in temperature of 1.069 C/decade. However, significant is, in this case, a colossal understatement. We obtain an even more extreme rise in temperature if the current trend line were to begin in the middle of the unusually prolonged cold period of the early 1990's.

In conclusion, due to bias, I have opted to begin a trend line in 1982 instead of the early 90's because I felt it was a good starting point.
It's easy to be speechless when analyzing the rise in temperature. ...
The year 2010, with its reading of 3.4 C, is a full 1 C above the second warmest year on record: 2006. The third warmest year on record, 2012, with an annual average temperature of 1.8 C, is also a full 0.6 C below 2006. One is left to wonder when, and by how much, 2010 will be broken.

Updated: 03:11 PM GMT del 28 Gennaio 2013

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The new winters

Posted by: SteveDa1, 03:10 PM GMT del 12 Maggio 2012

F = 1.8C + 32Winter's cold shots are less extreme todayIt doesn't just seem like winters are not as cold as they used to - it's a fact. The coldest three months of the year - December, January and February - are not only getting warmer overall, they are also experiencing weaker (not necessarily shorter) cold snaps. I'm aware that I'm only looking at one particular area but I'm certain that if I broadened my field of view I'd obtain similar results. If it's happening...

Updated: 02:15 PM GMT del 14 Maggio 2012

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April 2012 Summary

Posted by: SteveDa1, 03:13 PM GMT del 06 Maggio 2012

F = 1.8C + 32Above normal is the new normal?Yet another above normal month has gone by - unbelievably the 30th such month in a row, dating back to October 2009. Since the turn of the century, the enormous amount of months above the 1971-2000 averages seems to indicate that new normals are a given when the new 1981-2010 base period is published. In fact, I am 100% confident that the new 1981-2010 averages will be higher for every month. Indeed, the next project I wil...

Updated: 03:51 AM GMT del 16 Maggio 2012

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Amazing March Warmth

Posted by: SteveDa1, 02:50 PM GMT del 02 Aprile 2012

F = 1.8C + 32

The March 2012 heat wave is perhaps the most remarkable event to have affected me directly since the extreme ice storm of January 1998. Of course, let's not forget the historic floods of the Richelieu valley in May of 2010 but as I've said the latter hasn't struct me directly. The heat wave was indescribable. For an incredible five days in a row the temperature exceeded 20C when the average high should have been between 2-5C. Wha...

Updated: 01:49 AM GMT del 06 Gennaio 2013

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Summer heat and late autumn warmth

Posted by: SteveDa1, 11:45 AM GMT del 06 Dicembre 2011

Good day to everyone!It has been quite some time since I blogged but I must say I haven't stopped visiting this website. Quite the contrary, I come here almost every day. I have been waiting for a good subject worthy of a blog and this November's warmth for my area is certainly unheard of in the short 70 years of temperature record keeping for Montreal, Quebec.Let's take a look at almost the only highlight of the last several months (the weather has been very bland ...

Updated: 02:35 PM GMT del 06 Dicembre 2011

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