Skyepony's WunderBlog

Skye, I'm just in my 40s, and I remember when Bison were still endangered. To have them multiply so, and be used commercially, is just amazing!

I bet those mocs will wear good, too! :)

LOL! If I was a fox that would scare the **** out of me.

Quoting Skyepony:
Hilwa is all that is left..

Ylee~ I don't think the wild numbers have really come up anywhere near before. They are making a comeback as the other red meat, in pastures across the land. Really I see them as insurance if mad cow contaminates the beef stock here.

The hides are easier to work with than cow but wears much better for shoes than pig or deer.

Bought a bag of fur scraps for $3 at the Pow wow too. Think there is enough fox in there to go around the tops of the mocs.. Little tribute to Lemon Chicken & a warning to the foxes lurking around here near daily..

ROFL so hard that I forgot what I was gonna type!

Yeah,
a little nasty in your neck of the woods.
Just wanted to make sure you were paying attention!
(of course you were...that was a dumb question)

Take care Skye!

Oh, Angie might have to break out her regalia and go to one of those Pow-Wows with you one day. She loves them but hasn't been in years!

Wild weather day here in Volusia/Brevard. .71 here in Deland

Heads up for the locals.

The Atlas V launch from Cape Canaveral AFS, Florida has been rescheduled for Friday, February 24 in a 5:15-5:59pm EST time window.

Looks like there might be a swirl forming west of Sumatra about 90 east 10 south.

Skye,
Was over on LC's blog and saw your latest Shuttle drawing.
Very beautiful work!
My favorite yet.

So super impressed with your artwork!

Madagascar Meteorological Warning For 92S

Warning Nr NR02/11 26/02/2012 0100 UTC --
System / PERTURBATION TROPICALE --
Name UNNAMED
Position NEAR 13° 7 S - 51° 7 E 26/02/2012 0000 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure 998 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre 25 KT --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 2.0 --
Movement over the past 06 hours W/WNW 14 KT (26 KM/H) --

Other information THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 26 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 50.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
============
In the southwestern quadrant up to 70 NM from the center and in the northwestern quadrant up to 130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.2S 48.2E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 15.2S 46.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.3S 42.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.4S 41.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Synopsis report from Antalaha (between 0500 AM UTC and 0900 AM UTC and then at 1200 PM UTC), Sambava (at 0700 AM UTC then no obs) and Digo-Suarez (between 0700 AM UTC and 0900 AM UTC then no obs) shown mean 10 min winds in the gale force range (35-45 kt). Consequently, the Madagascar Weather Services named the system Irina. Those strong winds seems to be associated with the stong burst of convection that occured this morning just west of the estimated low level circulation center. This convective features is now collapsing.

Despite this strong winds observed, the cloud pattern of Irina is still miles away from a moderate tropical storm signature

The system is moving rapidly westwards on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge that have built back to the south. It undergoes a moderate easterly constraint so the center is estimated to be just to the east of the main convective mass. This pattern should continue within the next two days. On this track, the system should make landfall within the next hours over the northern tip of Madagascar between Diego-Suarez and Sambava (likely near Iharana). Associated heavy rainfalls should affect large areas of northern Madagascar during the next two days. Rainfall rate in 24hour period of 100-150 mm is likely.

Wednesday, environmental conditions should improve (lower shear, high sea surface temperature over the Mozambique channel) and significant intensification is expected.

By that time, the system should be influenced by two contradictory steering flow; one associated with an equatorial ridge located to its north and induced an easterly motion and another one associated with the subtropical ridge located to the south and induced a westwards motion. Consequently, the track should slow down significantly during the middle of next week. Beyond, the subtropical ridge could weaken and allow a more polewards track.

Inhabitants of the northeastern coasts of Madagascar and the northern channel area (including the Comoros archipelago, the northwestern coasts of Madagascar and the Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC Irina will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 26 2012
==========================

Moderate Tropical Storm Irina
=======================

See tropical cyclone advisories issued at 12:00 PM UTC for details

Between 60E and 75E and along 10S
=======================

Thunderstorm activity is strong within the Inter-tropical convergence zone and conditions appear conducive for cyclogenesis within the next few days over the area (lower shear, good low level monsoon inflow and good low level convergence). No defined surface closed circulation is evident at this time but it appears likely that a significant system should develop over the area during the next few days.

Over the extreme east of our area of responsibility, convection remains poorly organized. There is no evidence of a closed circulation and conditions appear less favorable for development mainly due to marginal low level inflow.

For the next 24 to 36 hours, the potential for development of another tropical depression is fair to good (suspect area between 60E and 75E).

Quoting Skyepony:
91S didn't make it..

Locally hope everyone sees some rain. Fairly dry week ahead.

Shrimp are running in the Indian River..oh my so tasty...Had some yesterday.

Aw Man! I'm jealous. Did manage to find some nice fresh tuna steaks and fresh Atlantic salmon fillets yesterday though.

fresh caught shrimp sounds really good !!!

Been raining here for over 2 hours now with more to come. Tampa radar being upgraded now, so watching Melbourne radar.

Watered the garden today which is the reason.

Hope you get a little of this.

Skye ~ You may know all of this, but it's certainly worthy of note and passing around.

The Organic Elite Surrenders to Monsanto

Almost an inch here today. Came down in buckets hitting almost 4 inches per hour on the rate for a while. Hope we can keep this up into the spring to put the fires out.

Good Morning lady!
Hope your day goes well!

16:00 PM RET February 28 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Area Of Disturbed Weather, Former Irina (997 hPa) located at 16.3S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 1.5/1.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.3S 43.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.4S 43.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.9S 42.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.3S 40.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation has come back over seas yesterday, then has tracked along the northwestern coast of madagascar. Low level circulation center remains very difficult to localize. Current position is estimated thanks to 0900z and 1200 PM UTC Malagasy observations (Belasampy and Majunga) and Juan de Nova.The clockwise circulation is expected to go far from the coast in the next hours, coming back over a complete overseas environment.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally west on the northern edge of subtropical ridge existing in the south for the next 24 hours, then southwestwards. The moderate easterly wind shear, is always limiting system intensification, but it is forecast to weaken.

Easterly wind shear should limit potential for regeneration but this shear is expected to weaken. On wednesday and thursday, the very good equatorward upper level outflow is expected to combine to a strong poleward one, environmental conditions should progressively improve and become favorable for significative further re-intensification. An oversea track in the middle of the channel within this favourable environment should allow ex-Irina to reach tropical cyclone stage on wednesday. Beyond an easterly upper level constraint should weaken it on Saturday.

Numerical weather prediction available forecast tracks invite the inhabitants of the Mozambique coastline to the greatest caution. It's currently not possible to precisely target the potential threatened areas. The all long Mozambique coastline from 18.0s to 27.0s should be influences directly or indirectly by this system.

Current intensity does not justify issuance of regular warning. It remains however closely monitored in relationship with its potential for intensification.

For further information about this system when no tropical cyclone forecast advisory (WTIO30) is issued, refer to bulletin AWIO20 for cyclonic activity and significant tropical weather in the southwest Indian ocean issued by the RSMC daily at 1200 PM UTC.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 29 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (994 hPa) located at 16.3S 43.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.7S 42.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 17.3S 42.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 20.3S 41.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.4S 38.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation center remains very difficult to precisely localize. Deep convective activity enforces and organizes in a curved band pattern in the west of the estimated center. Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally southwest on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Vertical wind shear keeps on weakening aloft as previously forecast allowing the system to intensify. On Wednesday and Thursday, the very good equatorward upper level outflow is expected to combine to a strong poleward one, environmental conditions should progressively improve and become favorable for significant further re-intensification. An oversea track in the middle of the channel within this favorable environment should allow the system to reach tropical cyclone stage on Friday.

Available numerical weather prediction forecast tracks are in good agreement to a landfall on the Mozambique coastline. The potential threatened areas remains difficult at this range to be precisely targeted but runs after runs concentrates in a region between Beira and Maputo.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 12-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 29 2012
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12 (999 hPa) located at 12.5S 69.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 13.3S 69.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.5S 68.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.6S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.0S 68.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
================

Since 1800 PM UTC, deep convective activity has consolidated near the center and organized on a curved band pattern. SSMI F15 2310 PM UTC confirms this better feature. Low level inflow improves on the both sides and easterly vertical wind shear has temporarily weakened but is forecast to enforce back today late and tomorrow Thursday. Numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast a globally southwards motion. Over this expected track, environmental conditions should become favorable on Friday under the upper level ridge but a new northerly vertical wind shear constraint should established on and after Saturday. Potential for intensification is therefore limited at short or medium range.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

FIRST !!!!!

ooops I forgot we get an extra day this year. ( :

Did someone say SHRIMP??? Come down here!!!