Personal Weather Stations
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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
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| Elevation: |
29 ft
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| Temperatura: |
73.9 °F
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| Punto di rugiada: |
72.1 °F
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| Umidità : |
94% |
| Vento: |
1.0 mph
from the SE |
| Raffiche di vento: |
4.0 mph
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Updated: 02:16 AM EDT del 21 Maggio 2013
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Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
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| Elevation: |
2540 ft
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| Temperatura: |
63.7 °F
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| Punto di rugiada: |
60.1 °F
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| Umidità : |
88% |
| Vento: |
Calma - senza vento |
| Raffiche di vento: |
0.0 mph
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Updated: 12:15 AM EDT del 21 Maggio 2013
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
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| Elevation: |
2376 ft
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| Temperatura: |
61.0 °F
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| Punto di rugiada: |
61.0 °F
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| Umidità : |
100% |
| Vento: |
Calma - senza vento |
| Raffiche di vento: |
1.0 mph
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Updated: 01:12 AM EDT del 21 Maggio 2013
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Page: 1 | 2 — Blog Index
The only thing of real consern so far is Chris's pass through Hebert Box #1.
Thanks for stopping by, feel free to do it daily & don't forget to leave your outlook!
It should be pointed out that the GFS...GFS ensemble...UKMET...and NOGAPS consensus forecast places Chris very near the southern tip of Florida in 120 hours...and subsequent forecast tracks may have to shifted a little farther north if those model trends continue.
Also,
The intensity forecast remains problematic. The GFS-based SHIPS intensity model indicates the vertical shear is expected to weaken to less than 5-10 kt by 96 and 120 hours...yet shows little intensification and barely makes Chris a hurricane...even though the cyclone will be over 29.5c to 30c SSTs and between two upper-level lows that will enhance the outflow to the west and east. Given that Chris is a small tropical cyclone...which means it can spin up quickly but also spin down just as quickly...the intensity forecast will remain on the conservative side at this time in the longer time periods...
I think the idea of the two Hebert’s boxes is interesting, but I look at it as just another way of observing two simple truths, 1) A tropical cyclone needs to take a "long enough" path over warm SSTs, undisturbed by nearby landmasses, to mature into a major hurricane, and 2) The mountains of the Greater Antilles are a formidable obstacle to development of tropical cyclones.
So that leaves only two possible paths for the very strong hurricanes that can threaten Florida, 1)The "Northern Route", where a storm gets north of Puerto Rico, but then turns more west under a strengthening high pressure ridge, or 2)The "Southern Route", where the storm strengthens over very warm waters south of Cuba, begins to react to an approaching trough and takes the favored path north over/near the Yucatan channel into the very warm waters in the southern Gulf, then continues N or recurves NE under the increasing influence of the trough.
Hebert’s boxes are roughly like the gateways to these two paths, but I'd note that Hebert's box not only missed Andrew but also missed Floyd, which but for an 11th hour trough narrowly diverting it from the Florida coast could have been an almost unimaginable disaster for Florida.
As for Herbert's box one can miss it & still hit us. The point was if one crosses through it, the chances of a Fl landfall are greater, than if it doesn't. Andrew just barely missed it with it's center. Floyd was a close call, though we saw some winds it could have been devestation. Center just missed the box. Wrong way Lenny was an exception as was Jose that same year. Lets hope Chris is too.
Central/East Coast FL Blog.
NWS down the road from me puts out such good stuff for the locals. The whole hurricane graphics stuff, they started end of last year, looks to be self updating:) There's more, I'll throw it up top if we need it. I'm not gonna have time to search around if a storm threatens, so my plan was to to put the self updating stuff in my blog with links to some other stuff.
& thanks saddlegait. I hope I don't have to take you up on that one day, but I might. Your closer than other places I have to run. I have 2 ponys, their pics are in my pictures. One is a well behaved stud. Minimum fence hieght 5' required...Please say I'm still invited...lol. I've been hunkering them in the same large stall, in a well built barn, down the road for the cat 2 & 3. They stay home for a 1. We'd bolt for a 4 & 5.
I agree on the longevity. My childhood pony made it 38, rideable all the way, til a week before strangles took her.
What breeds ya got? Skye is an Arab/Conammara. Cheers a sec B Welsh.
You asked my thoughts of them like children. The usually dominent mare, turns into a scaredy cat, totally following Skye or I when a 'cane threatens. lol. He of coarse keeps his stowic studly composure & fears no storm. Though he likes to be babyed once in a while.
Thanks for putting this together.
Had horses growning up in Arkansas, but haven't been on one in 30 years now. That is on my "things to do list" is to go horse riding again someday! LOL (no it is not a hint!LOL) Just got to make the time for it and be in the right place at the right time!!
OK, will check back later. sure hope Chris stays dead!
Gams
Guygee~ Caution, looking at these surge maps could cause you nightmares...
I put the Aug revised forecast for the month up, hot, but a little cooler I think than they had originally called for us.
Hey Gamma! Nothing like a spur of the moment ride on vacation at a trail rides for the public barn...
Chris is naked once again! This time it looks like it could be closer to the end. Notice on the floater, the ULL to the NE is seriously encroaching in Chris's space. Clicking on HDW-low, that ULL has obtained some lower level winds. Which could really disrupt the Low level circulation of Chris, which is all he's got left at this point. Once in a while you see these 2 types of features couple & make a 'cane but the coupling would be smoother & more expected if the ULL had no lower level winds.
He's north of the forecast points. The ULL is forecasted to head west over CFl today (by the local guys - I'll update the disscussion later, that link above it takes you to the most recent), this follows what the NOGAPS forecasted on the 18Z run yesterday.
{{{Finn}}} sorry I missed ya lastnight I fell out to sleep right after I posted that comment.
sure hope this is Chris's final day of existance but who knows.
Yes, I almost looked up a Horse Ranch when in Arkansas but just didn't have the time to get it in. Hubby has never even been on a horse; so got to make sure he experiences that pleasure! I know it will happen soon for me, just need to put more into making it happen. We have places you can go around here to ride horses,just gotta go do it!
Hope all is well, enjoy your information.
I guess NHC is still in "wait and see" mode, looking for some continuity in the models. That is understandable, given the current disorganization of the storm.
I must say, I have never seen a storm get totally sheared like this and come back so quickly purely from the LLC, especially being so close to Hispaniola. I think I am going to just watch and learn for awhile on this storm, because everytime I think I understand what it is doing, the storm changes again.
Meanwhile for us in Central Florida, the passage of one ULL and the approach of another one raises the chance for severe storms, probably with a short dry spell in between, especially if Chris follows the NHC forecast and we get some subsidence.
Speaking of afternoon stoms they should be at your place in 15-20 mins. Pouring rain & some lightnings. Shutting down be back later.
Thanks for elaberating guygee! I had never realized we had a model line for forecasters combined thoughts before.
There is also some discussion on the difference between early cycle and late cycle models, and why some models need to be interpolated, in the NHC publication 2005 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.
Thanks for the links Guygee. The 1st I hadn't seen, the second needed another read.
Wasn't suprised about 91L. The 1009mb low is near stationary around 30W. The general trend is, if they aren't a 'cane by 40W then the chances of it being a fish storm dwindle. 2004 is a good year to see the trend with storms forming on both sides of 40W. Usually the bermuda high sets up in one of 3 places, over bermuda, the azores or splits & sets up over both with a weakness around 40W inbetween. The last senerio is where we are now with 91L. GFS pressure model shows it. Scroll right & click forward to watch it's animated forecast (as with all of these). Cmc & gfdl are the only models getting excited with 91L of the majors. 91L is a wait & see.
Chris is all over as a TD except on the disscussion & main NHC page. Even their floater says TD Chris (which it didn't yesterday). Perhaps they 1/2 expect to be raising it's statues today. I stand by my MX/Tx ~ wave or worse...lol.
I'm still not excited with the ULL in the Northern gulf. & there is a blob in BOC but it's close to land.
Ogal~The whole thing makes me sick. I guess I just need to sit back and let things play out. ~ this is how i feel about it too. Interesting what all she put out there on MySpace.com & how much of her journels contradict court testimony.
91L is got a T# of 1/1.5.
Which puts him at 25kts or 29mph.
06/1745 UTC 11.7N 36.0W T1.0/1.5 91L
06/1145 UTC 12.0N 33.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
Went looking local for solar panels. Online looked like a lot of local solar stores. Pool & water heaters, no PV panels. I'll call around to the RV places on my next try.
Ogal~ thanks!
Saddlegait, I had suspected you had gaited horses. I've trained an shown some of those, 4 were spotted saddle horses. Like you though, natural shod. I had a client once with 2, she wanted them to show high lickin style. The breeder & I was so opposed, we convinced her to spot us all a vacation to Shelbyville for the Nationals, so she could see what was involved & if this was how she wanted to go. Went, took her down the back rows of the big auction that happens at the same time. She was over it.
I love the gaited ones. I ruled in the Carolinas region for 4 or 5 years on a huge saddlebred named Biggin in the fast rack class. The barn owner owned him, leading trailrides through the mountains. Once a year we'd take him to the regional show & he'd show those horses how to rack. The owner showed him in some local fun shows too. Some horses couldn't run as fast as he could rack. He's like 17HH too.
Hope your older one is doing okay with the heat this summer. Summer starts wearing on the older ones.
The map up top is showing best developement chances are for the wave that just rolled Africa. The 2:05 NHC eluded to that it was dying down, which many times happens after meeting with the Atlantic.
How about that PR blob? Been gaining convection for the last few days. disscusion~
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE...AND ERN HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 66W AND
72W. MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE THAT LIES IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS SHOWER/TSTM FREE DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND DENSE
SAHARAN DUST IN THE VICINITY.
That GOES-east link up there shows alot of dry air infront & behind it. Looks to be taking some shear as well as some land interaction. Something to watch, but not expected to develop by the NHC. Local guys don't mention it. Seems like it on Chris's path.
91L~ well I think this storm is in for a struggle, I don't see cat 4 in the next few days. Though more favorable conditions are coming for the short term, not looking all that impressive right now.
07/1745 UTC 12.2N 41.9W T1.0/1.0 91L
07/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L
07/0545 UTC 11.7N 38.2W TOO WEAK 91L
06/1745 UTC 11.7N 36.0W T1.0/1.5 91L
06/1145 UTC 12.0N 33.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
Those foals in that link are cute!
· Research drive 'must rival the Apollo moon project'
· Royal Society president warns of climate disaster
Ian Sample, science correspondent
Friday August 4, 2006
The Guardian
An urgent project on the scale of the Apollo moon landings is needed to boost research into green energy sources and save the planet from environmental disaster, according to Britain's top scientist.
Writing in the US journal Science today, Sir Martin Rees, president of Britain's most prestigious scientific institute, the Royal Society, expresses dismay at G8 leaders' "worrisome lack of determination" to accelerate development of new energy sources, given the expected 50% rise in the world's energy needs - and carbon dioxide emissions - in the next 25 years.
He warns that without an international, focused programme to develop alternatives to fossil fuels it will be impossible to keep greenhouse gas emissions low enough to prevent catastrophic climate change.
Calling for a programme with the single-minded commitment of the US Apollo programme, Professor Rees suggests an exploration of alternative energy sources with at least 10 times the $1.5bn a year funding that goes into researching nuclear fusion, a cleaner and safer alternative to conventional nuclear power.
"The Apollo project, like the Manhattan project, is an example where a goal was given a high priority and showed things can be done much more rapidly than would have happened in the normal course of events. The scale of funds needed is small in proportion to the scale of the problem and the trillions of dollars now being spent on energy," he said.
A carbon tax on companies generating the most greenhouse gas could be used to fund the project. "Private companies themselves won't provide an adequate research effort even for technologies that may turn out to be the most important ones, because they're still furthest from market," Prof Rees said.
According to the International Energy Agency, 80% of the world's energy needs will be met by fossil fuels by 2030. Nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass and waste power will provide only 17%, with other renewables such as solar and wind accounting for less than 2%.
But David Baker, a British scientist who joined Nasa's Apollo programme in the 1960s, said rather than copying the Apollo programme, oil and other energy companies should be forced to participate.
"We know what is happening to the climate and we need a concerted sharing of the problem throughout the whole of industry. Why should it be borne wholly by government when there are these companies making huge profits out of all of us?" he said.
This is what I have been saying all along. You cannot tell me this country cannot do this if it REALLY focuses on it!!!!
NOAA released it's July rap up~ U.S. HAS ITS SECOND-HOTTEST JULY ON RECORD;
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN some highlights
August 7, 2006 — The continental United States suffered through its second-hottest July on record because of a blistering heat wave from California to Washington, D.C. The heat wave broke more than 2,300 daily temperature records for the month and eclipsed more than 50 records for the highest temperatures in any July, according to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
The agency also reported that the first seven months of 2006 was the warmest January-July of any year the United States since records began in 1895. And, the scorching temperatures, combined with a shortage of rainfall, expanded moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in areas already hard hit.
NOAA scientists add that no single episode of extreme heat can be blamed exclusively on human-induced global warming, but instead heat waves will become more likely and progressively more intense over the course of decades. Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves across North America will be comprehensively assessed in the forthcoming Climate Change Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3.
Looks like NOAA, NASA & other govt. agencies are taking the climate change seriously.
Fl was above average for temps & below normal for rain, for the month of July. They have some nice graphic in there.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF
24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THIS
WAVE...LIKELY BEGIN SUPPRESSED BY THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
It's about 1/2 surronded in dry air right now (GOES-east above, dry dusty air is shades of tan), seems to be trying to slip into a better enviroment, since yesterday it was 3/4 surronded. 30kt of shear is currently NE of the blob, putting 10-20 shear on the blob. The shear is slated to move across NFl into the N gulf. If the blob slows up it could find itself in a sweet spot for developement, maybe not though. Other facter, that smaller blob that just rolled off NC, seems to be getting sucked down toward all that too, though forecasted to roll back east before getting to Fl. Watch & wait. Watch for ships in the area to pass the time...
91L is still out there, could do something like the models point to, could die. Not even a TD yet. That ULL that was shearing it has died down & it's slowly getting in warmer waters. It's missing convergance, the ITCZ isn't real active around there. There's also alotta dry air.
GO GREEN WITH YOUR EXISTING CAR..
Even if you don’t drive an electric car or hybrid, there are plenty of ways to reduce harmful emissions and help the environment.
Below are five tips on how to reduce emissions from GreenerCars.com. For the full list, visit their website at:
http://www.greenercars.com/drivinggreen.html
1. Combine trips. Warmed-up engines and catalysts generate much less air pollution, so combining several short trips into one can make a big difference.
2. Take a load off: Even 100 pounds of extra weight in your car can reduce fuel economy by 1 percent. Take a minute to unload your trunk or back seat.
3. Follow the speed limit!: Your fuel economy is lowered by about 10 percent when you drive 75 mph instead of 65 mph. Driving over the speed limit can also increase tailpipe pollution in many vehicles.
4. Keep your tires properly inflated. Tires should be inflated to the pressure recommended for your vehicle; this information is often printed inside the door frame or in your owner's manual. For every 3 pounds below recommended pressure, fuel economy goes down by about 1 percent. Tires can lose about 1 pound of pressure in a month, so check the air pressure regularly and always before going on a long trip or carrying heavy loads. Underinflated tires can also detract from handling, safety, and how long the tires will last.
5. Use regular gasoline unless your owner's manual says otherwise. Unless your car requires premium, high-octane fuels improve neither fuel economy nor performance and will just waste your money.
#5 is a mistake I used to make. Hmmmm I still think the Amaaco premium gives you better fuel economy, but that's me. My brother kept telling me, use the regular.. Well when the prices spiked, I heeded his adviceLOL.
BTW... if you are worried about the regular not being clean enough, slick 50 has a REAL good fuel system cleaner. Just pour it into tank as an additive. Works really well. I have seen the evidence with my own eyes.(more details if anyone wants to know..)
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