East Central FL Tropical Weather

By: Skyepony , 05:38 AM GMT del 02 Agosto 2006

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...MODELS PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE BUT GIVEN THEIR TRACK
RECORD THIS MONTH...AM A BIT APPREHENSIVE TO BITE OFF ON GOING WITH
THE LIKELY POPS THEY ARE SHOWING. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BAND FROM SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST BEHIND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N 78W. ALSO WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG BAND.

WOULD FAVOR HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT
CONFIDENT IN ETA/NAM/WRF SHOWING HIGHER MOISTURE BAND WORKING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL MARINE ACTIVITY FROM
NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA TO OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST...SO THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY THE GFS LOOKS LEGITIMATE.

THINK THAT 40-50 POPS WILL DO FOR NOW...WITH LOWEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. STEERING FLOW LOOKS WEAK BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO KEEP SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY NEAR I-95 INITIALLY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS (AREA WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE A LOT OF
RAINFALL THOUGH AS IT HAS BEEN A DRY MONTH SO FAR).

TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH STANDARD SMALL EVENING POP...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LEAD TO ACTIVITY BEING MORE PROLONGED THAN NORMAL.

FRI-SAT...PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE REMNANTS OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF
FL FRI. COMBINATION OF INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY SHOULD PRODUCE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MAV POPS (NEAR 60
PERCENT) STILL SEEM TOO HIGH FRI...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS.

SUN-WED...AXIS OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN FALL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. FEEDBACK OF THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUE. GFS/ECM SUGGEST A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MAY
SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH TUE. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE WAVES
HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERDONE BY THE MODELS THIS SEASON AND WILL KEEP
POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MIDWEEK MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE STATE...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....HIRSCH

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GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin

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Viewing: 92 - 42

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

92. Skyepony
04:02 PM GMT del 16 Agosto 2006
There there Randrewl, I ran them off for you with the knowledge of there was nothing worse then a few 15kt winds out in the gulf:)
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
90. Skyepony
07:27 PM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006
Oh the other thing of intrest was ~ see the swirl on the upper right hand of the Quickscat? That is forecasted by the major models to develop in to a weak disturbance as 93L hits somewhere from NC to CFl. That disturbance is then forecasted to recurve out to sea.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
89. Skyepony
07:23 PM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006
I guess I sould put us back in my main area of censern...lol.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
88. Skyepony
07:22 PM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006


Using GFDL track model for objective guidance...The GFDL is probibly the most accurate, though has been moving around a bit lately.


24hour forecast for Sea Surface Temps
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
87. Skyepony
04:52 PM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006
Thanks '03! Means alot comming from a pro!

I haven't got to look at anything but satalites this morning. Looks like they put 94L on frame 2, hence the change in models up top. I'll get it fixed back up later.

This is what I see. The low reformed a little north & there is an ULL that's been hanging out since before the front came down that is now to the east of the low. Late yesterday evening though the ULL is still weak it is gaining a little strength & on the move again. This time moving NW. Though the low has improved structure the ULL is keeping it in check, eating bits of it's convection from time to time & pushing it to the NW. Though NC through FL keep an eye on it, my area of consern is NFl, Ga, SC & NC. Alot depends on how the ULL moves.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
86. weatherguy03
02:01 AM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006
I've enjoyed reading your blog Skye! Great job on the tropics! Have a good night!
Member Since: Luglio 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
85. Skyepony
01:58 AM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006
For those watching the top map, the square off Fl has gone from the lightest shade of blue to the middle green since 2:00pmGMT today. It has gotten better organized. We started with 3 near equal lows imbeded in the front, now the middle one at 29N 74W is the stongest at 1012mb. There was one not to far off Vero this morning that enhanced our morning coastal showers & the seabreeze (which Tampa is still feeling). It's really lost alot of convetion during the late afternoon (this is common). We'll have to see how much builds during the night, when the cloud tops cool down enough to condence the ocean warmed air rising up. If this happens the area with the most swirl & lowest pressure could move to a different spot.

The spagetti models came to a fair concenses on the 18Z run (once you toss historical, statistical & directional). They look to have inishalized on the weaker low closer to Fl, (this one was the stronger one at the time). The majors (check the FSU models page) inishalized on the one currently strongest, takes it toward GA, Carolinas, as it dies. Exception would be NOGAPS, brings it to CFl as it dies.

The models are for the most part don't expect it to be any stronger than it is now. The SHIPS has been agressive all year. There is still a decent chance it won't form. Though everyone from east coast of Fl to NC should keep an eye on it.



I think there will be an easy link CloudSat in the morning.

Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
84. Skyepony
01:23 AM GMT del 15 Agosto 2006
& oh they are FLCrackerGirl:)

Did ya ever get your rain?

Thanks for the news on the turtle research guy. I was discussing this with family the other day, one was a friend of one someone that knew a dude on the boat. He was young & eager, had just started tagging turtles. They were headed in when they spotted this one & the dude incharge, though it had been a long day, said go for it. They figured he must have blacked out. I don't think he had a tank on. I'm glad they found what's left of him but the whole thing is sad.

Thanks Carolinagirl:) I like to look at it all & it's more fun to bring people along for the ride.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
83. FLCrackerGirl
11:57 PM GMT del 14 Agosto 2006
Lurkers, Don't Be SHY.
Thank Ms Skye for Bloggage Here :o)

Bumps, Bounce & Howdys Are Always Welcome.
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 587
82. FLCrackerGirl
08:49 PM GMT del 14 Agosto 2006
Sad News From The SeaTurtle Research Community:

By ADAM L. NEAL and TONY JUDNICH
staff writers, from TCPALM.com
Updated at 3:54 p.m. August 14, 2006

Authorities recover body of missing UCF researcher

BREVARD COUNTY Brevard County Sheriff's Office Lt. Andrew Walters has confirmed deputies Monday morning retreived the body of Boyd Lyon just north of the Sebastian Inlet.

Lyon, 37, was a University of Central Florida graduate student who disappeared last week while diving after a sea turtle for research. He had been living in Melbourne Beach, Walters said.

Brevard sheriff's deputies spotted the body about 11:35 a.m. floating about three miles north of the Sebastian Inlet about 300 yards west of where Lyon dove after a 300-pound sea turtle Thursday and never resurfaced.

The body had on a wetsuit, face mask and weight belt, officials said. A sheriff's office boat crew pulled the body from the ocean and brought it to shore. Walters said an autopsy would be done in the next couple of days to determine a preliminary cause of death.

Lyon's fellow researchers aboard a 19-foot Boston Whaler had waited for him to surface Thursday, but called for help after four minutes. The U.S. Coast Guard, Indian River County Sheriff's Office and others assisted Brevard officials with the search. But after 48 hours, the search was called off.

Brevard County Sheriff's Office did periodic checks around the area with its helicopter and marine units on Sunday, and called off any other efforts once the body was recovered, Walters said.


Member Since: Agosto 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 587
81. FLCrackerGirl
07:30 PM GMT del 14 Agosto 2006
^Lurk Break & Blog Bounce^
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 587
80. FLCrackerGirl
02:08 PM GMT del 14 Agosto 2006
Morning Sky.
Sorry :o) I Think 93L's My Fault. lol
Did A Rain Goddess Dance for some Lawn Spriklings & Look What We Get.
WEll Maybe We'll actually get some recordable moisture today.

Have a WUnderful Day & Thanks Again for the East Coast Weather Blog.
FRAN
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 587
79. carolinagal
01:58 PM GMT del 14 Agosto 2006
lol - getting stuff done in the rain! Happy Monday. Your sat pics are interesting.
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 6776
78. Skyepony
01:57 PM GMT del 14 Agosto 2006
Yes, does seem volitale. Seems a wait & see too as far as direction. Having light tropical showers here now. That bit of convection skirting the coast is all due to me trying to get hay this morning...lol. Gotta do stuff. I'll get an update in around 2pm est.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
75. Skyepony
06:37 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
It also looks like Nexstat isn't gonna give use the first look or now pass. Only stuff that's 24 hrs old. Pic didn't post, not latest pass it's cool now instead of too cool.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
74. Skyepony
06:32 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
Get some lightnin anyone? .28" rain as well. Raindance sucsessful.

Guygee, Notice the time on the top of the red line & botton of red line. Notice the time at the bottom of the graph. 93L is the tallest cluster. I see how NexSat is harder to read, & crams a long pass in a smaller space. The temp layers in the atmosphere are welcome as they aren't on the CloudSat page. 8-12 05:35. yellow box #29 to compare. There's a good tutaral in there.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
73. guygee
05:19 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
Skye - I love it when you sift through all of those Cloudsat passes and find a good one. I noticed they have improved their presentation to include time on the x-axis, but I still wish they would include the lat-longs on the x-axis as well. Still a little difficult for me to interpret for that reason, since I have a hard time correlating the CloudSat passed to other imagery and data, but CloudSat surely will be a great tool to look at storm structure to detect phenomena like eye-wall replacement cycles, dry air intrusions and low level surface layer stabilization (as supposedly happened to Katrina as it weakened near landfall).

Thank you for all of these great CloudSat links you have found!

Member Since: Settembre 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
72. Skyepony
04:35 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
Dang:( image won't post...I'll try a link.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
71. Skyepony
04:34 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
Oh this is too cool. Perhaps some of ya'll have noticed my obsession with the new CloudSat products (launched end of last year). I've been checking them on the home page & giving 3 part instuctions on how to view a pass. NexSat has picked it up. CloudSat of 93L (the pass follows the red line).


Click for full size view.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
70. Skyepony
04:21 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
We got 2 new invests. 92L is just east of the Antillies & 93L is just NE of us.

Morning OGal~ Hope ya have a great one too. AC get fixed? Projects? Raindance..lol

Guygee, no worries on the long post, I too was facinated by the subject. That link to Landsea's paper wasn't working for me yesterday, thanks for including it. I e-mailed Masters about it. He was probibly right about the flip server being full, works today. He had no answers to my tough questions on the matter though. Watching that typhoon last week & the Dvorak T#s. USJTA had the pressure as if taking the T#s & using the Dvorak Current Intensity Chart correctly with the corrisponding pressure estimate for the NW Pacific. The pressures JMA gave were consistant as if you were reading the Dvorak chart for the Atlantic. If JMA is complaining that Dvorak was set up for the Atlantic maybe we need to e-mail them the conversion chart that includes both basins...lol. I'll try to get some more thoughts out on this later.


Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
69. guygee
01:17 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
Good Morning Skye. It looks like we can finally look forward to a good chance of rain today. We sure do need it. I cannot remember an August so dry and oppressive in my time living here. Models are still uncertain about the direction that any tropical development will take along the front that is sagging south towards us today.

I was fascinated by Dr. Master's blog from a yesterday discussing the differences between the assessment of the intensity of Supertyphoon Saomai at landfall, with the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center rating it a Cat 4 and the Japan Meteorological Agency rating it a Cat 2. Quite a difference! I was even more disturbed by the paper Dr. Masters linked to by Kamahori et. al. of the JMA showing that this difference between the operational techniques for assessing tropical cyclone intensity between the USJTA and the JMA has existed since 1991, with an average 1-2 category negative bias of JMA intensity measurements for Nothern West Pacific Tropical Cyclones as compared to the USJTA. JMA shows more Cat2-3's than USJTA, and USJTA shows more Cat 4-5's than JMA. JMA has fewer Cat 2-5's overall. I read the paper by the JMA authors and they were very conservative on the significance of their findings:

"...the JTWC dataset shows an increase in extremely intense TC days, and the JMA dataset shows a decrease in extremely intense TC days and an increase in moderately intense TC days. A quality check of the two datasets has to be made before we attempt any physical interpretation of the changes in the intense TC days."

So the authors did not make the same conclusion that the USJTA record was flawed, as Dr. Master's did in his blog, but only say that more research is needed to reconcile the differences between the two datasets. In their conclusion they also stated:

"The JMA modified the original Dvorak technique to be consistent with surface observations near Japan (Osano 1989). In contrast, the JTWC adopted the original Dvorak technique, which was developed for north Atlantic hurricanes (Dvorak 1975). The different algorithms led to quantitatively different results for the same satellite imagery of the same TCs in the WNP."

The JMA authors seem to have misstated that the Dvorak technique was originally developed "for north Atlantic Hurricanes". There is a very good review on the evolution of the Dvorak technique written by Bruce Harper available online here. Harper notes that the original Dvorak technique was originally developed for NWP cyclones, and later modified for Atlantic Basin storms to account for the difference in mean ambient surface pressures.
Harper goes on to describe the evolution of the Dvorak technique in general and the modifications to the Dvorak techniques made by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for tropical cyclones near Australia.

So, the differences between the USJTA estimates and the estimates made by other meteorological institutions are most likely due to the differences in the operational application of the Dvorak technique that have developed in different regions. For example, revisiting the JMA paper's conclusion quoted above, the differences between the JMA and the USJTA estimates for the period 1991-2004 are likely due to the changes made by the JMA in applying the Dvorak technique in 1989. Quite an embarrassment when even the world's top meteorologists cannot agree on what they are seeing! In that light I don't feel so bad about the days on Dr. Masters blog when we cannot even agree which way a tropical system is moving;) But the repercussions of this gap in the science are very important and crucial to understanding potential effects of climate change, so I hope the differences can be reconciled soon, preferably by funding reconnaissance flights for all typhoons and tropical cyclones once they reach hurricane intensity.

Sorry for the long post, but I really find this subject very fascinating. Maybe I should post part of this to the main blog to see if Dr. Masters has a response.

Cheers!
Member Since: Settembre 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
68. OGal
12:53 PM GMT del 13 Agosto 2006
Mornin Skye, just remember wine is the fruit of the vine. Have a fun Sunday! What projects do you have goin at the present time?
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
67. Skyepony
07:54 PM GMT del 12 Agosto 2006
Hey Stormydee, thanks for posting about the lava flow out of the fault lines. I caught some of it lurking around lastnight.

Thanks Gamma for keeping the blog afloat while I was off. Ponys are good, they played in the sprinkler lastnight. It's a rare sight & a sign of how hot it was.

Check out the bolded part of today's NWS disscution for the area. Something to continue to watch there. There is a fairly strong ULL north of Hispanola traveling NW toward our area. The gfs shows it slow as the mid to low weak cyclone mentioned above slides infront of it. GFS shows them close with ULL keeping cyclone sheared. Wait & see, a little more distance & the ULL could enhance it.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
66. seflagamma
01:27 PM GMT del 12 Agosto 2006
Skye, Good Saturday morning to you. Bet you have already been out in the stalls taking care of the horses and other critters! Beautiful morning but going to get very hot later. Make it a great one today!
Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
65. seflagamma
08:05 PM GMT del 11 Agosto 2006
Skye, Good afternoon. Haven't stopped by today yet to say Hi....
Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
64. stormydee
07:19 PM GMT del 11 Agosto 2006
Hey Skye! Thanks for watching over our area. I like having a local place to check in. :-)
Have a great weekend!
Dee
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
63. Skyepony
07:08 PM GMT del 11 Agosto 2006
The tropics are quiet...

You locals though in the areas of the Hometown News. Be sure to pick up a copy today. Long article, starting on the front page, about the NWS in Melbourne, pics of a few forecasters as well.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
62. Skyepony
12:57 PM GMT del 11 Agosto 2006
hmmm, not self updating...
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
61. Skyepony
06:44 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2006
91L is dead for now, disscussion says there is potental that it could develop in a few days but they aren't running models, it's off the navy site & such.

The wave behind it looks poor. No models develop it.

To watch would be off the Carolinas. The 06Zgfs was trying to send something small this way at the end of the run. 12Z moves it out to sea, as does NOGAPS. The models are all over the place, just picking up on it. This is a wait to see if we even get a blob cause what the models are forming, isn't that cloud out there now.

NexSat~ I wanna see if it will self update...
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
60. Skyepony
02:05 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2006
Thanks Gams, my grass is getting dry. Looked like NE Fl was haveing worse fire issues by far then here.

Randrewl~ Good to hear the surge threat isn't to bad there. We got s canal close by that could cause problems, the county has been working on a lock for hurricanes for it. Like you my biggest fear is what developement has done to our drainage plans. Was down your way a little more than a week ago for a birthday party...nice Chucky Cheese...lol.

Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
58. seflagamma
01:03 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2006
Skye, Good morning to you. I know I'm a tad bit south of your area but still enjoy your updates! We got some rain at my house yesterday but now we should only get those occasional afternoon TS's.... we are suppose to be sort of dry for the next few days.

I almost feel guilty that we in South Florida have gotten so much rain while others are in desperate need of it. Wish I could send you an inch or two!

Make it a great Day!
Gams
Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
57. Skyepony
12:59 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2006
Thanks so much for the update Guygee! Things were starting to look kind of dead tropically & the weather was so nice locally I didn't get around to the local yesterday. I appreciate what you add here. & I'm sure the local lurkers appreciate it too. There is a half a dozen of them or more that I hear from by e-mail only when things start threatnin.

Been smokey the last 2 mornings... muck fires!
Orange, Seminole, Volusia & Brevard have a few.

There is 2 on 528 just west of 95 that are smoking my area up.

To check for state fires click on the mapping system, it's interactive, so zoom around.

Ogal~ I have no idea who has the boy.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
56. guygee
11:40 AM GMT del 10 Agosto 2006
From the this early morning's Melbourne NWS AFD, still very speculative, but may be something close to keep an eye out for over the weekend:

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN FL EACH OF THESE TWO DAYS. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT NORTH OF ECFL. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST.
[...]
SUNDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST MOVING SOUTH INTO ECFL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...THIS SCENARIO MAY WARRANT 30-40 PERCENT POPS. IN ANY CASE THE LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
[...]
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
Member Since: Settembre 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
55. OGal
11:36 AM GMT del 10 Agosto 2006
Skye, thanks for stopping by my blog with birthday wishes. Also thank you for the additional news on Brenda. Does he husband have Devin now? The additional bruises and healing fractures on her momma point to a truly unstable woman. Someone who would be capable of shaking her child.
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
54. OGal
08:08 PM GMT del 09 Agosto 2006
Skye, thank you for the birthday greeting. The news about Brenda is unbelievable.. They must investigate the whole shaking incident with her son. Could this all be a form of Munchhausen by Proxy. This is certainly giving Brenda the attention she seems to crave. I feel so sorry for her momma. I wonder if she will become a ward of the state. I never met Brenda's husband but maybe they have divorced. Devin, Brenda's son is certainly the loser once again in all of this. Keep your ears and eyes open and let me know anything else you hear.
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
53. Fshhead
06:38 PM GMT del 09 Agosto 2006
Pony, I have to say I saw the results of their fuel cleaner with my own eyes. I had a Nissan wagon that I bought as cheap transportation. This car had 330,000 on it. I had to have the head worked on. When we took it off(after using the slick 50 cleaner I might add) the piston tops & cylinders almost looked like new.That stuff is amazing. 330,000... that motor should have been nasty!!!! Made me a FIRM believer in the product to say the least!!!!!!!
Member Since: novembre 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
52. Skyepony
12:28 PM GMT del 09 Agosto 2006
Funny how I night changes everything in the tropics. The Bahama blob is like ~ what blob & the c atlantic, which just about everyone pronounced dead, is flaring...

fshhead~ I once got 600,000miles out of an engine with the help of slick 50.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
51. Fshhead
08:03 AM GMT del 09 Agosto 2006
Pony u said it was o.k. to paste anything here...

GO GREEN WITH YOUR EXISTING CAR..
Even if you dont drive an electric car or hybrid, there are plenty of ways to reduce harmful emissions and help the environment.

Below are five tips on how to reduce emissions from GreenerCars.com. For the full list, visit their website at:
http://www.greenercars.com/drivinggreen.html

1. Combine trips. Warmed-up engines and catalysts generate much less air pollution, so combining several short trips into one can make a big difference.

2. Take a load off: Even 100 pounds of extra weight in your car can reduce fuel economy by 1 percent. Take a minute to unload your trunk or back seat.

3. Follow the speed limit!: Your fuel economy is lowered by about 10 percent when you drive 75 mph instead of 65 mph. Driving over the speed limit can also increase tailpipe pollution in many vehicles.

4. Keep your tires properly inflated. Tires should be inflated to the pressure recommended for your vehicle; this information is often printed inside the door frame or in your owner's manual. For every 3 pounds below recommended pressure, fuel economy goes down by about 1 percent. Tires can lose about 1 pound of pressure in a month, so check the air pressure regularly and always before going on a long trip or carrying heavy loads. Underinflated tires can also detract from handling, safety, and how long the tires will last.

5. Use regular gasoline unless your owner's manual says otherwise. Unless your car requires premium, high-octane fuels improve neither fuel economy nor performance and will just waste your money.

#5 is a mistake I used to make. Hmmmm I still think the Amaaco premium gives you better fuel economy, but that's me. My brother kept telling me, use the regular.. Well when the prices spiked, I heeded his adviceLOL.
BTW... if you are worried about the regular not being clean enough, slick 50 has a REAL good fuel system cleaner. Just pour it into tank as an additive. Works really well. I have seen the evidence with my own eyes.(more details if anyone wants to know..)

Member Since: novembre 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
50. Skyepony
07:18 PM GMT del 08 Agosto 2006
I saw TTT standing next to the Bahama Blob, lookin all excited lastnight:) lol. Here's the NHC opinion...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF
24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THIS
WAVE...LIKELY BEGIN SUPPRESSED BY THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

It's about 1/2 surronded in dry air right now (GOES-east above, dry dusty air is shades of tan), seems to be trying to slip into a better enviroment, since yesterday it was 3/4 surronded. 30kt of shear is currently NE of the blob, putting 10-20 shear on the blob. The shear is slated to move across NFl into the N gulf. If the blob slows up it could find itself in a sweet spot for developement, maybe not though. Other facter, that smaller blob that just rolled off NC, seems to be getting sucked down toward all that too, though forecasted to roll back east before getting to Fl. Watch & wait. Watch for ships in the area to pass the time...

91L is still out there, could do something like the models point to, could die. Not even a TD yet. That ULL that was shearing it has died down & it's slowly getting in warmer waters. It's missing convergance, the ITCZ isn't real active around there. There's also alotta dry air.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
49. OGal
08:59 AM GMT del 08 Agosto 2006
Mornin Skye, thanks for the Channel 9 update on Brenda. This is just a horrible story. Well I guess pretty soon if this patch of clouds holds together we will start hearing from TTT (Terrible Tom Terry) I have a love hate relationship with that guy. Have a terrific Tuesday. Thanks for telling me about the Missouri trotters.
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
48. Skyepony
04:01 AM GMT del 08 Agosto 2006
Yeah, we can put some guys on the moon, we're working on going to Mars. Seems time for a energy source revolution & with everything we've done, I don't doubt we could pull it off.

NOAA released it's July rap up~ U.S. HAS ITS SECOND-HOTTEST JULY ON RECORD;
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN
some highlights

August 7, 2006 The continental United States suffered through its second-hottest July on record because of a blistering heat wave from California to Washington, D.C. The heat wave broke more than 2,300 daily temperature records for the month and eclipsed more than 50 records for the highest temperatures in any July, according to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

The agency also reported that the first seven months of 2006 was the warmest January-July of any year the United States since records began in 1895. And, the scorching temperatures, combined with a shortage of rainfall, expanded moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in areas already hard hit.

NOAA scientists add that no single episode of extreme heat can be blamed exclusively on human-induced global warming, but instead heat waves will become more likely and progressively more intense over the course of decades. Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves across North America will be comprehensively assessed in the forthcoming Climate Change Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3.


Looks like NOAA, NASA & other govt. agencies are taking the climate change seriously.

Fl was above average for temps & below normal for rain, for the month of July. They have some nice graphic in there.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
47. Fshhead
09:47 PM GMT del 07 Agosto 2006
World must race to develop green energy, urges Rees

Research drive 'must rival the Apollo moon project'
Royal Society president warns of climate disaster

Ian Sample, science correspondent
Friday August 4, 2006
The Guardian


An urgent project on the scale of the Apollo moon landings is needed to boost research into green energy sources and save the planet from environmental disaster, according to Britain's top scientist.
Writing in the US journal Science today, Sir Martin Rees, president of Britain's most prestigious scientific institute, the Royal Society, expresses dismay at G8 leaders' "worrisome lack of determination" to accelerate development of new energy sources, given the expected 50% rise in the world's energy needs - and carbon dioxide emissions - in the next 25 years.

He warns that without an international, focused programme to develop alternatives to fossil fuels it will be impossible to keep greenhouse gas emissions low enough to prevent catastrophic climate change.
Calling for a programme with the single-minded commitment of the US Apollo programme, Professor Rees suggests an exploration of alternative energy sources with at least 10 times the $1.5bn a year funding that goes into researching nuclear fusion, a cleaner and safer alternative to conventional nuclear power.

"The Apollo project, like the Manhattan project, is an example where a goal was given a high priority and showed things can be done much more rapidly than would have happened in the normal course of events. The scale of funds needed is small in proportion to the scale of the problem and the trillions of dollars now being spent on energy," he said.

A carbon tax on companies generating the most greenhouse gas could be used to fund the project. "Private companies themselves won't provide an adequate research effort even for technologies that may turn out to be the most important ones, because they're still furthest from market," Prof Rees said.

According to the International Energy Agency, 80% of the world's energy needs will be met by fossil fuels by 2030. Nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass and waste power will provide only 17%, with other renewables such as solar and wind accounting for less than 2%.

But David Baker, a British scientist who joined Nasa's Apollo programme in the 1960s, said rather than copying the Apollo programme, oil and other energy companies should be forced to participate.

"We know what is happening to the climate and we need a concerted sharing of the problem throughout the whole of industry. Why should it be borne wholly by government when there are these companies making huge profits out of all of us?" he said.

This is what I have been saying all along. You cannot tell me this country cannot do this if it REALLY focuses on it!!!!


Member Since: novembre 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
45. Skyepony
08:56 PM GMT del 07 Agosto 2006
WFTV got the gorry on the Brenda thing. I hadn't seen this.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
44. Skyepony
08:49 PM GMT del 07 Agosto 2006
Hey Ogal~ I got a freind with a few of those, bought them as foals. There's a big breeder in central FL she got them from. They're Missouri Fox Trotters & loads of fun. I help someone else pick one out once & got to tryout 2 or 3. One of those good, hardy, level headed breeds that developed with the country, a mix of Morgan, Arab, a little what not & the cotton plantation horses. Later a little Tennessee Walker & Saddlebred was added for height & assuance of gait. They move more like a Appalachan Singlefoot (their cousins) but generally are bigger.

Those foals in that link are cute!
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
43. Skyepony
07:21 PM GMT del 07 Agosto 2006
Now for the weather...

The map up top is showing best developement chances are for the wave that just rolled Africa. The 2:05 NHC eluded to that it was dying down, which many times happens after meeting with the Atlantic.

How about that PR blob? Been gaining convection for the last few days. disscusion~
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE...AND ERN HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 66W AND
72W. MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE THAT LIES IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS SHOWER/TSTM FREE DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND DENSE
SAHARAN DUST IN THE VICINITY.
That GOES-east link up there shows alot of dry air infront & behind it. Looks to be taking some shear as well as some land interaction. Something to watch, but not expected to develop by the NHC. Local guys don't mention it. Seems like it on Chris's path.

91L~ well I think this storm is in for a struggle, I don't see cat 4 in the next few days. Though more favorable conditions are coming for the short term, not looking all that impressive right now.
07/1745 UTC 12.2N 41.9W T1.0/1.0 91L
07/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L
07/0545 UTC 11.7N 38.2W TOO WEAK 91L
06/1745 UTC 11.7N 36.0W T1.0/1.5 91L
06/1145 UTC 12.0N 33.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
42. OGal
07:12 PM GMT del 07 Agosto 2006
Oh Skye, I have a Sarasota friend who has Missouri trotters. She has trained and shown them. I don't know much about horses, but hers are so handsome. She has a bedroom full of those awards that fit across the saddle. They look like litte roses. She is so everything horsey. What do you know about these horses??
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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