Skyepony's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Skyepony, 05:38 AM GMT del 02 Agosto 2006 | +0 |
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Tropical Blogs
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76 °F
Parzialmente nuvoloso
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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
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| Elevation: | 29 ft |
| Temperatura: | 73.2 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 69.4 °F |
| Umidità : | 88% |
| Vento: | Calma - senza vento |
| Raffiche di vento: | 8.0 mph |
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Updated: 09:37 PM EDT del 21 Maggio 2013
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Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
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| Elevation: | 2540 ft |
| Temperatura: | 65.7 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 60.0 °F |
| Umidità : | 82% |
| Vento: | Calma - senza vento |
| Raffiche di vento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 09:37 PM EDT del 21 Maggio 2013
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
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| Elevation: | 2376 ft |
| Temperatura: | 63.0 °F |
| Punto di rugiada: | 61.0 °F |
| Umidità : | 94% |
| Vento: | Calma - senza vento |
| Raffiche di vento: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 09:12 PM EDT del 21 Maggio 2013
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GO GREEN WITH YOUR EXISTING CAR..
Even if you don’t drive an electric car or hybrid, there are plenty of ways to reduce harmful emissions and help the environment.
Below are five tips on how to reduce emissions from GreenerCars.com. For the full list, visit their website at:
http://www.greenercars.com/drivinggreen.html
1. Combine trips. Warmed-up engines and catalysts generate much less air pollution, so combining several short trips into one can make a big difference.
2. Take a load off: Even 100 pounds of extra weight in your car can reduce fuel economy by 1 percent. Take a minute to unload your trunk or back seat.
3. Follow the speed limit!: Your fuel economy is lowered by about 10 percent when you drive 75 mph instead of 65 mph. Driving over the speed limit can also increase tailpipe pollution in many vehicles.
4. Keep your tires properly inflated. Tires should be inflated to the pressure recommended for your vehicle; this information is often printed inside the door frame or in your owner's manual. For every 3 pounds below recommended pressure, fuel economy goes down by about 1 percent. Tires can lose about 1 pound of pressure in a month, so check the air pressure regularly and always before going on a long trip or carrying heavy loads. Underinflated tires can also detract from handling, safety, and how long the tires will last.
5. Use regular gasoline unless your owner's manual says otherwise. Unless your car requires premium, high-octane fuels improve neither fuel economy nor performance and will just waste your money.
#5 is a mistake I used to make. Hmmmm I still think the Amaaco premium gives you better fuel economy, but that's me. My brother kept telling me, use the regular.. Well when the prices spiked, I heeded his adviceLOL.
BTW... if you are worried about the regular not being clean enough, slick 50 has a REAL good fuel system cleaner. Just pour it into tank as an additive. Works really well. I have seen the evidence with my own eyes.(more details if anyone wants to know..)
fshhead~ I once got 600,000miles out of an engine with the help of slick 50.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN FL EACH OF THESE TWO DAYS. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT NORTH OF ECFL. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST.
[...]
SUNDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST MOVING SOUTH INTO ECFL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...THIS SCENARIO MAY WARRANT 30-40 PERCENT POPS. IN ANY CASE THE LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
[...]
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
Been smokey the last 2 mornings... muck fires!
Orange, Seminole, Volusia & Brevard have a few.
There is 2 on 528 just west of 95 that are smoking my area up.
To check for state fires click on the mapping system, it's interactive, so zoom around.
Ogal~ I have no idea who has the boy.
I almost feel guilty that we in South Florida have gotten so much rain while others are in desperate need of it. Wish I could send you an inch or two!
Make it a great Day!
Gams
Randrewl~ Good to hear the surge threat isn't to bad there. We got s canal close by that could cause problems, the county has been working on a lock for hurricanes for it. Like you my biggest fear is what developement has done to our drainage plans. Was down your way a little more than a week ago for a birthday party...nice Chucky Cheese...lol.
The wave behind it looks poor. No models develop it.
To watch would be off the Carolinas. The 06Zgfs was trying to send something small this way at the end of the run. 12Z moves it out to sea, as does NOGAPS. The models are all over the place, just picking up on it. This is a wait to see if we even get a blob cause what the models are forming, isn't that cloud out there now.
NexSat~ I wanna see if it will self update...
You locals though in the areas of the Hometown News. Be sure to pick up a copy today. Long article, starting on the front page, about the NWS in Melbourne, pics of a few forecasters as well.
Have a great weekend!
Dee
Thanks Gamma for keeping the blog afloat while I was off. Ponys are good, they played in the sprinkler lastnight. It's a rare sight & a sign of how hot it was.
Check out the bolded part of today's NWS disscution for the area. Something to continue to watch there. There is a fairly strong ULL north of Hispanola traveling NW toward our area. The gfs shows it slow as the mid to low weak cyclone mentioned above slides infront of it. GFS shows them close with ULL keeping cyclone sheared. Wait & see, a little more distance & the ULL could enhance it.
I was fascinated by Dr. Master's blog from a yesterday discussing the differences between the assessment of the intensity of Supertyphoon Saomai at landfall, with the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center rating it a Cat 4 and the Japan Meteorological Agency rating it a Cat 2. Quite a difference! I was even more disturbed by the paper Dr. Masters linked to by Kamahori et. al. of the JMA showing that this difference between the operational techniques for assessing tropical cyclone intensity between the USJTA and the JMA has existed since 1991, with an average 1-2 category negative bias of JMA intensity measurements for Nothern West Pacific Tropical Cyclones as compared to the USJTA. JMA shows more Cat2-3's than USJTA, and USJTA shows more Cat 4-5's than JMA. JMA has fewer Cat 2-5's overall. I read the paper by the JMA authors and they were very conservative on the significance of their findings:
"...the JTWC dataset shows an increase in extremely intense TC days, and the JMA dataset shows a decrease in extremely intense TC days and an increase in moderately intense TC days. A quality check of the two datasets has to be made before we attempt any physical interpretation of the changes in the intense TC days."
So the authors did not make the same conclusion that the USJTA record was flawed, as Dr. Master's did in his blog, but only say that more research is needed to reconcile the differences between the two datasets. In their conclusion they also stated:
"The JMA modified the original Dvorak technique to be consistent with surface observations near Japan (Osano 1989). In contrast, the JTWC adopted the original Dvorak technique, which was developed for north Atlantic hurricanes (Dvorak 1975). The different algorithms led to quantitatively different results for the same satellite imagery of the same TCs in the WNP."
The JMA authors seem to have misstated that the Dvorak technique was originally developed "for north Atlantic Hurricanes". There is a very good review on the evolution of the Dvorak technique written by Bruce Harper available online here. Harper notes that the original Dvorak technique was originally developed for NWP cyclones, and later modified for Atlantic Basin storms to account for the difference in mean ambient surface pressures.
Harper goes on to describe the evolution of the Dvorak technique in general and the modifications to the Dvorak techniques made by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for tropical cyclones near Australia.
So, the differences between the USJTA estimates and the estimates made by other meteorological institutions are most likely due to the differences in the operational application of the Dvorak technique that have developed in different regions. For example, revisiting the JMA paper's conclusion quoted above, the differences between the JMA and the USJTA estimates for the period 1991-2004 are likely due to the changes made by the JMA in applying the Dvorak technique in 1989. Quite an embarrassment when even the world's top meteorologists cannot agree on what they are seeing! In that light I don't feel so bad about the days on Dr. Masters blog when we cannot even agree which way a tropical system is moving;) But the repercussions of this gap in the science are very important and crucial to understanding potential effects of climate change, so I hope the differences can be reconciled soon, preferably by funding reconnaissance flights for all typhoons and tropical cyclones once they reach hurricane intensity.
Sorry for the long post, but I really find this subject very fascinating. Maybe I should post part of this to the main blog to see if Dr. Masters has a response.
Cheers!
Morning OGal~ Hope ya have a great one too. AC get fixed? Projects? Raindance..lol
Guygee, no worries on the long post, I too was facinated by the subject. That link to Landsea's paper wasn't working for me yesterday, thanks for including it. I e-mailed Masters about it. He was probibly right about the flip server being full, works today. He had no answers to my tough questions on the matter though. Watching that typhoon last week & the Dvorak T#s. USJTA had the pressure as if taking the T#s & using the Dvorak Current Intensity Chart correctly with the corrisponding pressure estimate for the NW Pacific. The pressures JMA gave were consistant as if you were reading the Dvorak chart for the Atlantic. If JMA is complaining that Dvorak was set up for the Atlantic maybe we need to e-mail them the conversion chart that includes both basins...lol. I'll try to get some more thoughts out on this later.
Click for full size view.
Thank you for all of these great CloudSat links you have found!
Guygee, Notice the time on the top of the red line & botton of red line. Notice the time at the bottom of the graph. 93L is the tallest cluster. I see how NexSat is harder to read, & crams a long pass in a smaller space. The temp layers in the atmosphere are welcome as they aren't on the CloudSat page. 8-12 05:35. yellow box #29 to compare. There's a good tutaral in there.
Sorry :o) I Think 93L's My Fault. lol
Did A Rain Goddess Dance for some Lawn Spriklings & Look What We Get.
WEll Maybe We'll actually get some recordable moisture today.
Have a WUnderful Day & Thanks Again for the East Coast Weather Blog.
FRAN
By ADAM L. NEAL and TONY JUDNICH
staff writers, from TCPALM.com
Updated at 3:54 p.m. August 14, 2006
Authorities recover body of missing UCF researcher
BREVARD COUNTY — Brevard County Sheriff's Office Lt. Andrew Walters has confirmed deputies Monday morning retreived the body of Boyd Lyon just north of the Sebastian Inlet.
Lyon, 37, was a University of Central Florida graduate student who disappeared last week while diving after a sea turtle for research. He had been living in Melbourne Beach, Walters said.
Brevard sheriff's deputies spotted the body about 11:35 a.m. floating about three miles north of the Sebastian Inlet — about 300 yards west of where Lyon dove after a 300-pound sea turtle Thursday and never resurfaced.
The body had on a wetsuit, face mask and weight belt, officials said. A sheriff's office boat crew pulled the body from the ocean and brought it to shore. Walters said an autopsy would be done in the next couple of days to determine a preliminary cause of death.
Lyon's fellow researchers aboard a 19-foot Boston Whaler had waited for him to surface Thursday, but called for help after four minutes. The U.S. Coast Guard, Indian River County Sheriff's Office and others assisted Brevard officials with the search. But after 48 hours, the search was called off.
Brevard County Sheriff's Office did periodic checks around the area with its helicopter and marine units on Sunday, and called off any other efforts once the body was recovered, Walters said.
Thank Ms Skye for Bloggage Here :o)
Bumps, Bounce & Howdys Are Always Welcome.
Did ya ever get your rain?
Thanks for the news on the turtle research guy. I was discussing this with family the other day, one was a friend of one someone that knew a dude on the boat. He was young & eager, had just started tagging turtles. They were headed in when they spotted this one & the dude incharge, though it had been a long day, said go for it. They figured he must have blacked out. I don't think he had a tank on. I'm glad they found what's left of him but the whole thing is sad.
Thanks Carolinagirl:) I like to look at it all & it's more fun to bring people along for the ride.
The spagetti models came to a fair concenses on the 18Z run (once you toss historical, statistical & directional). They look to have inishalized on the weaker low closer to Fl, (this one was the stronger one at the time). The majors (check the FSU models page) inishalized on the one currently strongest, takes it toward GA, Carolinas, as it dies. Exception would be NOGAPS, brings it to CFl as it dies.
The models are for the most part don't expect it to be any stronger than it is now. The SHIPS has been agressive all year. There is still a decent chance it won't form. Though everyone from east coast of Fl to NC should keep an eye on it.
I think there will be an easy link CloudSat in the morning.
I haven't got to look at anything but satalites this morning. Looks like they put 94L on frame 2, hence the change in models up top. I'll get it fixed back up later.
This is what I see. The low reformed a little north & there is an ULL that's been hanging out since before the front came down that is now to the east of the low. Late yesterday evening though the ULL is still weak it is gaining a little strength & on the move again. This time moving NW. Though the low has improved structure the ULL is keeping it in check, eating bits of it's convection from time to time & pushing it to the NW. Though NC through FL keep an eye on it, my area of consern is NFl, Ga, SC & NC. Alot depends on how the ULL moves.
Using GFDL track model for objective guidance...The GFDL is probibly the most accurate, though has been moving around a bit lately.
24hour forecast for Sea Surface Temps
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