Heat Waves (4) A Climate Case Study:
Heat Waves (4) A Climate Case Study:
In the last article I wrote that the extreme events of 2011 were providing us with the opportunity to think about climate and how to cope with a warming world. The U.S. is experiencing an extreme heat event this week (Masters @ WU). This heat wave is the consequence of a strong, stationary high pressure system over the central U.S., and it will move to the east over the next few days. Back on July 14th The Capital Weather Gang did a nice write up on the forecast of the heat wave. At the end of this blog are links to my previous blogs on heat waves and human health.
When thinking about weather, climate, and extreme events an important idea is “persistence.” For example, a heat wave occurs when there are persistent high temperatures. Persistent weather patterns occur when high and low pressure systems get large and stuck; that is, they don’t move. In the Figure below, you need to imagine North America and the United States. There is a high pressure center over the proverbial Heartland. With blue arrows I have drawn the flow of air around the high pressure system, and in this case moist air. There is moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico and, in fact on the date when this was drawn, from the Pacific. This is common in the summer to see both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific as sources of continental moisture.
Figure 1: Schematic of a high pressure system over the central United States in July. While generic, this is drawn to represent some of the specifics of 2011. The green-shaded area is where there have been floods in 2011. The brown-shaded area represents sustained drought in the southern part of the nation.
At the center of this high pressure system there is a suppression of rain, because the air is moving downward. This sets up a situation where the surface heats from the Sun’s energy. There is not much mixing and cooling, because of the suppression of the upward motion that produces rain. Hence, if this high pressure system gets stuck, then there is persistent heat. This is a classic summer heat wave.
Let’s think about it some more. There is lot of moisture being drawn around the edge of the high pressure system, and this moisture contributes to the discomfort of people. People – just a short aside about people: if we think about heat and health, then we are concerned about people’s ability to cool themselves. It is more difficult to cool people when it is humid because sweat does not evaporate. Suppose that in addition to this moisture, there is a region where the ground is soaked with water from flooding. Then on top of already moist air coming from the Gulf, there is local evaporation into the air being warmed by the Sun. If on the interior of the high, where the rain is suppressed, there is hot, wet air, then it becomes dangerous heat.
It’s not easy to derive a number that describes dangerous heat. But in much of the eastern U.S. a number that somehow combines temperature and humidity is useful. Meteorologists often use the heat index. It’s the summer time version of “it’s 98 degrees, but it feels like 105.” For moist climates, the heat index is one version of the “it feels like” temperature. Jeff Masters tells me that in Newton, Iowa yesterday, July 17, 2011, the heat index was 126 degrees F. (see here, and 131 F in Knoxville, Iowa on July 18)
Another measure of heat and humidity is the dew point; that is, the temperature at which dew forms, and effectively limits the nighttime low. The dew points in Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are currently very high and setting records. Here is a map of dew point for July 19, 2011.
Figure 2: Exceptionally high dew points centered on Iowa.
Now if I was a public health official, and I was trying to understand how a warming planet might impact my life, then here is how I would think about it. First, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific are going to be warmer, and hence, there will be more humid air. This will mean, with regard to human health for the central U.S., heat waves will become more dangerous, without necessarily becoming hotter. It is also reasonable to expect heat waves will become more frequent and last longer, because those persistent, stuck high pressure systems are, in part, forced by the higher sea surface temperatures. If I am a public health official here is my algorithm – heat waves are already important to my life, and they are likely to get more dangerous, more frequent, and of longer duration. But by how much? Do I need to know by how much before I decide on a plan for action?
If I think about the air being more humid, then I might expect to see trends in the heat index. I might expect to see trends in dew points, and trends in the nighttime minimum temperatures getting higher. (That’s where a greenhouse effect really matters.) I worry about persistent heat, warm nights, and the inability of people and buildings to cool themselves. I worry about their being dangerous heat in places where people and emergency rooms are not used to dangerous heat – not acclimated to heat – not looking for heat-related illness.
Let’s go back to the figure. Rain is suppressed in the middle of the high pressure system, but around the edge of the high pressure system it will rain; there will be storms. (see Figure 3 at the end) The air around the edge of high is warm and very wet. Wet air is energetic air, and it is reasonable to expect local severe storms. (See Severe Storm on Lake Michigan) And if the high pressure is persistent, stuck, then days of extreme weather are possible. If this pattern sets up, then there is increased likelihood of flooding. If I am that public health official, then I am alerted to the possibility of more extreme weather and the dangers thereof. But, again, can the increase of extreme weather be quantified? Do I need to quantify it before I decide on a plan of action?
Still with the figure - what about that region of extended drought and the heat from the high pressure system? Dehydration becomes a more important issue. As a public health official, I start to see the relation of the heat event to other aspects of the weather, the climate. I see the relation to drought. I see the flood, and it’s relation to the winter snow pack and spring rains.
So what I have presented here is to look at the local mechanisms of the weather – what are the basic underlying physics responsible for hot and cold, wet and dry – for moist air? If I stick to these basic physics, and let the climate model frame the more complex regional and global picture, what can I say about the future? Do I have to have a formal prediction to take action? Here in 2011, I see drought and flood and hot weather and warm oceans that interact together to make a period of sustained, dangerous heat. It does not have to “set a record” to convey the reality of the warming earth. It tells me the type of event that is likely to come more often, of longer duration, and of, perhaps, of greater intensity. If I am a public health planner, then I can know this with some certainty. The question becomes, how do I use that information in my planning?
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Figure 3: Radar loop showing precipitation around the edge of the large high pressure system in the middle of the continent. July 19, 2011.
Previous Blogs on Heat Waves
Hot in Denver: Heat Waves (1)
Heat Waves (2): Heat and Humans
Heat Waves (3): Role of Global Warming
Reader Comments
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WOW! No wonder why we are having so many 100 year floods in the past ten years.
As I said, 100 points for persistence.
I felt no compunction to reply to you in Masters' blog; so many others called you out that I actually felt sorry for you, and didn't wish to pile on. I knew you might appreciate my sparing hand. ;-)
(And, no, I don't wonder why I'm grayed out; I know precisely why. And, more importantly, so do many others here. Truth out soon.)
Anyway, allow me to leave you with this:
(Data from NCDC/NOAA)
No, it wasn't anything like a power grab. He didn't enjoin CERN scientists from interpreting the data; he asked that they refrain from doing so publicly until the paper is published; in the meantime, he asked that they simply report exactly what was found. IOW, he's being careful to not step on any toes before the official report and its accompanying conclusion are released.
Much as mountains of frustrated denialists may fantasize otherwise, this is completely normal.
At or near the surface correct but not down deep. GHG's just add to the heating by trapping it in its ever thickening blanket.
Precisely. Which should also tell you that he didn't "neuter" them.
And to build on your analogy: denialists are the people in a crowded, burning theater yelling that there is no fire, and even if there is it's small one, and we don't know how big it may get so we shouldn't worry about it, and we need to hold off on extinguishing it until we know exactly what started it. (And encouraging those denialists are a bunch of arsonists wearing patches that say "Koch" and "ExxonMobil" running up and down the aisles with matches.)
Looking ahead, Shell Oil weighs options for Arctic production platform
July 20th 11:56 am | Alex DeMarban Print this article Email this article Create a Shortlink for this article
Some opponents of oil and gas drilling in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas say the Arctic's merciless conditions will guarantee a blowout if Shell Oil ever gets the chance to drill. Shifting ice, strong currents, brutal cold and ice ridges as tall as three-story buildings will be no match for modern engineering, they say.
Shell sees things differently.
Brian Miller, the oil company's project development manager for Alaska, describes below how a production platform would work, if the company is allowed to conduct exploratory drilling and then develop producing wells.
The platform would use "brute-force" engineering, including a stadium-sized base on the seafloor, a large single leg, perhaps steel, that's strong enough to resist ice, and a facility high above the water to avoid those deadly ridges. The Arctic Sounder: Could you tell me about the oil platform? Is it cutting edge?
Brian Miller: In some respects, it is cutting edge. In other respects, it is just a case of brute-force engineering.
Shell has studied platforms in this area since the early '80s, so to a certain extent there's nothing really new here, and in fact, we have several people on our team who worked on Shell development opportunities in the early '80s and we've got drawings of platforms that were designed back then that honestly look fairly similar to what we're talking about now.
But no one
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'Draining, physically draining,' says Weather Service spokesman as heat slowly moves East
Some 141 million Americans over nearly 1 million square miles were under a heat alert on Wednesday, the result of a heat "dome" that's only slowly moving away from the central U.S. — and into the East Coast. The National Weather Service said 13 Midwest deaths in recent days were potentially heat related.
"This heat is dangerous on many levels," NWS Director Jack Hayes said in a statement. "Temperatures and humidity levels are high, the heat will be prolonged, and very warm temperatures overnight won’t provide any respite. All of these factors make this an unhealthy situation, especially those in the upper Midwest who are not accustomed to such heat."
Hospitals in Wichita, Kan., treated 25 heat-related illnesses, according to the Weather Service report. In Des Moines, Iowa, 16 people were hospitalized because of the heat.
In Minneapolis, dozens of fans at recent Minnesota Twin games have been treated for heat issues, even though the club did take extra precautions such as providing free water stations and having first aid and guest service staff on hand to monitor crowds.
Day after day of high temperatures and humidity with no relief overnight was taxing the region.
"It's just draining, physically draining," said Chris Vaccaro, a Weather Service spokesman.
At least 27 states were under some sort of heat warning, watch or advisory.
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Here we are again, huh?
Please listen: Heuer didn't send out any "scientists not allowed to interpret" edict. Rather, he asked the CERN scientists connected with the CLOUD project to present the results of that project without any public interpretion of those results until the paper is published. Period. Nothing wrong with that. Nothing evil. Nothing shady. Nothing manipulative. No muzzling, no silencing, no cover-up. Just a project manager wisely asking his team members not to unintentionally sabotage the results of a very complex project dealing with a hugely complex subject by prematurely discussing the results without the proper documentary evidence.
Not that it ultimately matters, of course; if the results undermine AGWT, denialists will point fingers at Heuer for his criminal behavior. If the results are neutral, denialists will demand to know why Heuer insisted on silencing his team. And if the results support AGWT (which they almost certainly will, as all current science does), denialists will say it's false and phony and just another part of the scientific plot to take over the world.
Sigh
Seriously, people need to stop gullibly swallowing every little nugget of swill emitted from WUWT and others of the sort. At the very least, they should apply a few critical thinking skills while reading, and maybe toss in a little research. It wouldn't hurt...
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The DESERTEC Concept
The DESERTEC Concept was developed by a network of politicians, scientists and economists from around the Mediterranean, from which arose the DESERTEC Foundation.
Choosing the best locations offers the greatest benefits in fighting global warming
A final switch towards renewable energies will, with high probability, be a combination of global and local, centralized and decentralized approaches integrating all forms of renewable energies. But when it comes to combating global warming, the leverage of investment in renewables is greatest when the best sites are used. Plants in these locations can produce more clean energy than those in less suitable sites.
This is why the basic idea of the DESERTEC Concept is to generate electricity from renewable sources at the places where they are most abundant. A high-voltage direct current grid carries the electricity generated from renewables over long distances with a minimum loss of power, making it available wherever it is needed. This can provide the world with an economical, safe and sustainable supply of clean electricity.
Energy is available in abundance and we have the technology to use it
Within six hours, deserts receive more energy from the sun than humanity consumes within a year. The sun shines all day on a belt that encompasses the globe either side of the equator – and with the technology that is now available, most countries could supplement their energy mix with clean electricity from deserts. Thanks to heat storage tanks, solar-thermal power plants in deserts can supply electricity day and night, ideally supplementing electricity grids that rely on fluctuating energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind power.
I don't think cosmic rays are of any conCERN to us now. If they are making more clouds and clouds are supposed cool the planet then why is the planet warming instead of cooling. Think about it!
I know how to stop it but no one listens. Co2 and other GHGs are very bad pollutants.
There hasn't been any statistical warming in a decade.
Have you check NOAA graphs over the past tens decades?
NOAA has a bias. Figures lie and liars figure. Independent analysis shows no warming.
Believe me, not all New Orleanians speak that way. Only if you grew up in the 9th Ward or on the Westbank of the Miss. River.
Any links?
National Climate Data Center
NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System
The NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) is a Web-services based project providing both real-time and retrospective format independent access to climate and weather model data.
People aren’t the only animals suffering in this extreme heat. State Veterinarian Dustin Oedekoven said at least 1,500 head of cattle have died across South Dakota during the prolonged excessive hot spell, with temperatures routinely hitting the high 90s and sometimes topping the century mark across the state. People aren’t the only animals suffering in this extreme heat.
State Veterinarian Dustin Oedekoven said at least 1,500 head of cattle have died across South Dakota during the prolonged excessive hot spell, with temperatures routinely hitting the high 90s and sometimes topping the century mark across the state.
“Unfortunately, there are probably more than that,” Oedekoven said Tuesday. “That’s what’s been reported to my office.”
According to a Mitchell Livestock Auction Co. employee, fat cattle — defined as livestock that have been in a feedlot for 100 days or more — sold last week for more than $1,500 for a steer and up to $2,000 for a heifer. That means the loss statewide may well top $2 million.
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That's where you learn to smooth, massage, and otherwise manipulate the data.
That's a ridiculous story. Cattle elsewhere, and especially in the South, tolerate temperatures above 100 degrees regularly. Just think Texas. Anything to exaggerate the "unprecedented" heat.
Well, if that's the case, perhaps the ranchers should have provided more water for the cattle. Also, that sort of heat isn't that unusual. It doesn't happen often, but it happens.
Sounds like that forecast is more feasible with the PDO than NOAA's. NOAA never wants to forecast a colder than normal winter. Similar to the UK Met office.
WOW! Lot of ice melt going on in Greenland also. Summit is the only one with less than 32 degrees.
Greenland
Cities
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Aasiaat 51 %uFFFDF 66% 30.06 in Scattered Clouds NE at 9 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Angisoq 46 %uFFFDF 65% 29.86 in WSW at 1 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Aputiteeq 33 %uFFFDF 86% 29.95 in SSE at 2 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Cape Harald Moltke Save
Cape Tobin 43 %uFFFDF 76% 29.89 in N/A South at 7 mph 9:50 PM EGST Save
Carey Island 46 %uFFFDF 60% 29.85 in West at 12 mph 6:00 PM ADT Save
Daneborg 50 %uFFFDF 43% 29.93 in SE at 9 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Danmarkshavn 42 %uFFFDF 61% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy South at 2 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Hall Land 36 %uFFFDF 87% 29.93 in Partly Cloudy NNW at 5 mph 12:00 PM MDT Save
Henrik Kroeyer Holme 40 %uFFFDF 63% 29.91 in NNE at 7 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Ikermiit 43 %uFFFDF 89% 29.92 in North at 6 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Ikermiuarsuk 38 %uFFFDF 98% 30.01 in SSE at 12 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Illoqqortoormiut 43 %uFFFDF 76% 29.89 in N/A South at 7 mph 9:50 PM EGST Save
Ilulissat 48 %uFFFDF 76% 30.01 in Mostly Cloudy Variable at 2 mph 8:50 PM WGST Save
Kangerlussuaq 57 %uFFFDF 51% 29.92 in Partly Cloudy ENE at 7 mph 8:50 PM WGST Save
Kangilinnguit Save
Kap Morris Jesup 37 %uFFFDF 82% 29.93 in WNW at 10 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Kitsissorsuit 44 %uFFFDF 97% 30.01 in SSE at 20 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Kitsissut 52 %uFFFDF 71% 29.98 in Mostly Cloudy West at 8 mph 8:20 PM WGST Save
Kulusuk 45 %uFFFDF 81% 30.01 in N/A WSW at 13 mph 8:50 PM WGST Save
Maniitsoq 50 %uFFFDF 76% 29.95 in Scattered Clouds ESE at 7 mph 8:20 PM WGST Save
Mittarfik Nuuk 48 %uFFFDF 82% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy SSW at 10 mph 8:50 PM WGST Save
Narsarsuaq 59 %uFFFDF 45% 29.83 in Mostly Cloudy NE at 9 mph 6:50 PM WGST Save
Navy Operated Save
Nerlerit Inaat 43 %uFFFDF 76% 29.89 in N/A South at 7 mph 9:50 PM EGST Save
Nunarsuit Save
Nuuk 48 %uFFFDF 82% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy SSW at 10 mph 8:50 PM WGST Save
Nuussuaataa 43 %uFFFDF 89% 30.04 in WNW at 7 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Paamiut 45 %uFFFDF 66% 29.88 in Mostly Cloudy WNW at 6 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Pituffik 61 %uFFFDF 31% 29.94 in Mostly Cloudy SE at 15 mph 7:40 PM ADT Save
Prins Christian Sund 45 %uFFFDF 86% 29.97 in Overcast NNE at 18 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Qaanaaq Save
Qaarsut 49 %uFFFDF 56% 30.03 in SE at 16 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Qaqortoq 59 %uFFFDF 45% 29.83 in Mostly Cloudy NE at 9 mph 6:50 PM WGST Save
Sioralik 50 %uFFFDF 76% 29.95 in Scattered Clouds ESE at 7 mph 8:20 PM WGST Save
Sisimiut 52 %uFFFDF 71% 29.98 in Mostly Cloudy West at 8 mph 8:20 PM WGST Save
Sisimiut Mittarfia 52 %uFFFDF 71% 29.98 in Mostly Cloudy West at 8 mph 8:20 PM WGST Save
Station Nord 42 %uFFFDF 55% 29.95 in WNW at 2 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Station Nord Save
Summit 23 %uFFFDF 93% in WNW at 17 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Tasiilaq 54 %uFFFDF 49% 29.96 in Scattered Clouds SW at 14 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Ukiivik 47 %uFFFDF 78% 29.92 in NW at 2 mph 7:00 PM WGST Save
Upernavik 46 %uFFFDF 81% 30.01 in Rain SW at 16 mph 7:50 PM WGST Save
Ouch!
No wonder the whole Arctic is baking up there!
Even if you were to trust that spot-graph, it's only thirty years of temperatures. Does that really mean anything in the grand scheme of things?
Does the ten years of cooling that you claim on independent charts different than NOAA really mean the Earth is cooling in the grand scheme of things?
It means that the claim of warmists isn't correct. They claim that the average temperature is still climbing.
Where is your graph showing different data than NOAA?
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