Planning for a Warmer World / Semester Summary
Planning for a Warmer World / Semester Summary
This is the last week of the winter term at the University of Michigan. We start just after New Year’s Day and march relentlessly to the end. It is the term when I teach my Climate Change Problem Solving. Class projects this term look at Adaptation Plans for Baltimore, Maryland; Institutional-scale Composting; Evaluations of Solar and Wind Energy in Chicago; and Understanding and Attribution of the 1930s Warm Period. Of course I got behind and Jeff Masters had to cover for me last week. (Thanks Jeff.)
Back at the end of December I was anticipating the semester with this blog. I was motivated to change the course by two syntheses of knowledge. The first was the National Academy of Sciences, Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. This report draws attention to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere – as opposed to consideration of our emissions with the idea that the carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. The basic message is that all of the carbon dioxide that we release from coal, oil and natural gas, will be around for many thousands of years. There are many important messages from this synthesis, but one of those messages is that to stabilize carbon dioxide at any level, we will have to reduce our emissions by more than 80% of current. So the total amount we accumulate depends on when we have the ability and the will to end our emissions – a decision that will be strongly influenced by how the climate impacts us.
The accumulation of carbon dioxide suggests several things to me. At the top of the list is that, given our population and our energy consumption, there is no way that we will avoid an average rise of the global surface temperature of 2 – 4 degrees centigrade. In some regions the temperature rise will be much greater, and the temperature increases in the Arctic will be systematically high. Since I always worry about important issues that have slid into the background, the other major issue that demands our carbon-dioxide attention is ocean acidification. The National Geographic has a good collection of information on ocean acidification. Here is the Executive Summary of the Stabilization Report.
The other synthesis of information that influenced my course this year is the collection of papers on preparing for an atmosphere with more than 400 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide and with temperatures that are beyond our notional two degree average that represents our arbitrary and comfortable threshold of dangerous. The papers in this issue deconstruct the idea that, at least for some, that two degrees of global average warming is not dangerous. A key issue that follows from the report is the importance of considering the rate of increase of warming.
One of more important risks associated with a warming planet is the rate at which the planet is warming. We are in the midst of a period of great species extinction and rapid warming stress the ability or the inability to adapt to rapid changes in temperature and water. Thinking about people and climate, population is increasing and our current rate of temperature increase largely coincides with maximizing climate stress and population stress at the same time. With this rapid warming to a 2-4 degrees surface increase, climate stress, especially water availability, rises to a level comparable to other sources of stress. This brings attention to managing the rate of warming while we develop the needed technology to manage carbon dioxide. Policy wise – we need to focus real resources on technologies such as batteries, carbon removal and sequestration, and a whole range of water and energy efficiency challenges.
Each year the students who come to my class bring a different knowledge of climate change to the class and different points-of-view about the challenges of climate change. One of the things I find most encouraging is the desire to move to problem solving, and the realization that the political arguments that seem to paralyze, at least, our national approach to climate change, is, in fact, political. I divine from their comments that they see the behavior of our elected officials as irrelevant and obstructing. That is introduction to geo-engineering.
There are arguments about geo-engineering. There remains this argument that if we allow ourselves to think about geo-engineering, then we will use this to allow ourselves to do nothing about climate change. What becomes more and more obvious, as we consider the accumulation of carbon dioxide, our population, and our imperatives for growth and economic success, is that we are engaged in geo-engineering without thinking about it. It’s like if we release the carbon dioxide and it mixes around the atmosphere, then we lose accountability and responsibility. It is self-evident that we do have to think about our carbon dioxide waste. Whether or not we choose to label it as such, we are currently engaged in unintelligent geo-engineering. There remains fear to use the word geo-engineering in climate research programs. It is imperative that we seriously think about management of the climate. If there is a notion of “sustainability” with 8, 9, or 10 billion people, then there is a notion of climate management. I mention an effort by some scientists GeoMIP. This is an effort promoted by scientists, with a wide range of opinions on the merits of geo-engineering, to promote quantitative understanding of geo-engineering. Similarly, we need to know much more about the impacts of ocean acidification; climate change is an easy problem compared with acidification.
I will be getting back into the climate change blogging saddle. In the next few weeks I have a few series that need to be revisited – validating models, the Sun, media, the EPA. Again thanks to Jeff for covering for me.
r
Reader Comments
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Scientific skepticism is a wonderful and completely useful and necessary thing; reasonable doubts about methodologies and conclusions are what keeps science honest. However, in my many years of dealing with CC/GW, I've personally come across very few if any actual skeptics; instead, I've seen an endless procession of people--driven by financial, political, or religious ideologies--steadfastly and resolutely refusing to be swayed by an amount of scientific fact or logic. These folks determined long ago that AGWT threatens their stock portfolio, or their political or religious beliefs, so they've either shut off all thought about the issue, or they've become vocal against it.
Those who honestly and openly use logical, rational analysis to critically interpret the data are skeptics, no matter what they conclude. But those who indulge in dishonest and disingenuous practices such as misrepresenting or distorting data, or using logical fallacies, etc., are absolutely not skeptics, regardless of those conclusions; they are, simply, deniers.
Skepticism is a rational, intellectual mode of inquiry, and is a very welcome part of science--or, for that matter, almost any other endeavor. OTOH, denialists are simply gullible folks willing to believe the most outrageous idiocies as long as in their mind those idiocies "refute" climate science. I suppose it helps them sleep better at night, but I really wish they would learn the difference.
Sigh...
Funny mgr not believing in this man made global warming fraud doesn't affect my stock portfolio or my financial, political or religious beliefs. I didn't make this issue political liberals did.
Al gore gains to make billions of this and his scare tactic movie is shown to young kids in schools. I think you have to question those motives and others like it. Your side falsifies almost everything and the truth will never be set free because of puerile like you with agendas and wanting power
Or the earthquake in japan to try and get us off of nuclear power was perfectly timed too
Midwest deluge enhanced by near-record Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures
The deluge of rain that caused this flood found its genesis in a flow of warm, humid air coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs )in the Gulf of Mexico are currently close to 1 C above average. Only two Aprils since the 1800s (2002 and 1991) have had April SSTs more than 1 C above average, so current SSTs are among the highest on record. These warm ocean temperatures helped set record high air temperatures in many locations in Texas yesterday, including Galveston (84F, a tie with 1898), Del Rio (104F, old record 103 in 1984), San Angelo (97F, old record 96 in 1994). Record highs were also set on Monday in Baton Rouge and Shreveport in Louisiana, and in Austin, Mineral Wells, and Cotulla la Salle in Texas. Since this week's storm brought plenty of cloud cover that kept temperatures from setting record highs in many locations, a more telling statistic of how warm this air mass was is the huge number of record high minimum temperature records that were set over the past two days. For example, the minimum temperature reached only 79F in Brownsville, TX Monday morning, beating the previous record high minimum of 77F set in 2006. In Texas, Austin, Houston, Port Arthur, Cotulla la Salle, Victoria, College Station, Victoria, Corpus Christi, McAllen, and Brownsville all set record high minimums on Monday, as did New Orleans, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, and Alexandria in Louisiana, as well as Jackson and Tupelo in Mississippi. Since record amounts of water vapor can evaporate into air heated to record warm levels, it is not a surprise that incredible rains and unprecedented floods are resulting from this month's near-record warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico.
co2now.org
Atmospheric CO2 for March 2011
Preliminary data released April 6, 2011 (Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)
ACK!!!..snicker,,coff
Excellent as always, Pat. And the science is appreciated. There are several here who feel that obsessing on me and posting one ad hominem attack after another somehow invalidates the very solid science supporting AGWT. They can post away all they wish, of course; I've successfully debated people who are vastly more clever and knowledgeable than are they. But I do wish they'd stick with discussions of science, and try to argue the theory on its merits.
Well, I won't get into the fact that Rionovosta is a Russian tabloid similar to the Weekly World News, nor will I delve into Delingpole's simple-minded, hard-right political stance on, well, just about everything. I will say this instead: given the ridiculous heat being measure by satellite over most parts of Russia over the past few decades, any station temperature data that HadCrut may have inadvertently omitted would almost certainly show that the planet is heating up even faster than believed.
AGWT is real, guys and gals.
On that topic, i do find it amazing that people are idiotic enough to believe that the certificate is some kind of hoax. But then again people are dumb enough to believe we are cooling so maybe I shouldn't be surprised are you suggesting the co2 concentrations listed are false?
Cat I know you don't like alarmist talk, but this isn't alarmist talk.
All he's saying is a record was broken. Under warmer climate it would be more likely that we would set more high temp records and more record high low temps . And if you read Dr masters posts at all you'd know that theory has come true for the most part.
No one is suggesting the world is gonna crash burn and die.
Time to cool them GOM SSTs with Gulfstream and Yucatan current Kinetic energy.Ya'll with me yet?
Welcome to my ignore list, you are the very first :D
I don't like ignoring people, I believe almost all people truly have worthy opinions and contributions. However, I've discovered that your opinion and input is completely and entirely worthless. Unlike everybody else on this blog, you flat out deny any evidence that doesn't support your logic (or lack thereof), and you have zero, yes ZERO, evidence to back your opinion. Your claimed evidence is really only testaments and statements from denialist websites.
RMuller, your posting literally serves this blog no purpose, you contribute nothing and are actually inhibiting the progression of logical debate.
good riddance
stay safe people
Sounds like Neo's post.
He's one post away from joining Patrap in ignore land!
plttttttttttt..
Like we could give a rats behind lil one.
Somewhere a X-box sits idle with a cold controller
heavy rain and wind. I dont know how bad it out there.
Like I said earlier, nothing will satisfy the racist crazies, which is precisely why Obama shouldn't have caved in to Birthers' terrorist demands and showed the form. Now, I could easily pick apart the very faulty logic used by the "graphic artist", though I doubt he'd listen, as he's every bit as kooky as any other Birther. But I'll do that on a different blog, not here.
I read an article today that stated that Birthers, AGW denialists, creationists, and folks who believe that autism can be caused by the MMR vaccine are like travelers in the same "don't bother me with actual facts" boat. I would have to agree with the writer's assumption...
that was a good one.
Yep, seems like we all agree that RMuller contributes zilch to the blog.
Has he ever once posted a graph or fact showing we aren't in fact warming? All I see him post are links to anti science websites with 30 page long rants on how climate scientists all have a hidden agenda.
Not to mention his flat out denial of any possibility that the earth is warming hampers the progression of debate on the blog.
Violent Storms Kill at Least 85 in the South
Violent storms spread destruction from Texas to New York, wiping out homes and businesses and killing 61 people in Alabama alone.
"The Browns Ferry nuclear power plant about 30 miles west of Huntsville lost offsite power. The Tennessee Valley Authority-owned plant had to use seven diesel generators to power the plant's three units. The safety systems operated as needed and the emergency event was classified as the lowest of four levels, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said."
Link
Duke University Article...
Storms, tornadoes ravage South; at least 213 dead
Ala. governor says state has 'massive destruction of property,' up to 1 million without power
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — The death toll from severe storms that punished five Southern states jumped to a staggering 213 Thursday after Alabama canvassed its hard-hit counties for a new tally of lives lost.
Alabama's state emergency management agency said it had confirmed 131 deaths, up from at least 61 earlier.
"We hope not, but I do expect to find more [bodies]," Gov. Robert Bentley told NBC's TODAY.
Additionally, the lawmaker confirmed that up to 1 million people remain without power during a conference call with federal emergency officials.
Mississippi officials reported 32 dead in that state and Tennessee raised its report to 30, according to NBC News. Another 12 were killed in Georgia and eight in Virginia.
The fierce storms Wednesday spawned tornadoes and winds that wiped out homes and businesses, forced a nuclear power plant to use backup generators and prompted the evacuation of a National Weather Service office.
The weather system spread destruction from Texas to New York, where dozens of roads were flooded or washed out.
The severe weather was continuing Thursday. The National Weather Service was issuing short-lived tornado warnings — advising people to "take cover now" — as the twisters formed.
Video: Massive twister caught on camera
By early Thursday, these had been sent out for parts of New York, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said it received 137 tornado reports around the region, including 66 in Alabama and 38 in Mississippi.
The NWS also issued flash flood warnings for parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas and Georgia, for Thursday morning.
And it further warned of severe thunderstorms in parts of Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia.
Get the latest updates on the tornadoes at breakingnews.com
The states where fatalities were reported were:
* Alabama, where 131 people died and officials said damage was spread over a wide area. "It looks like somebody came through with a huge ax and cut the top off of everything. Just a big blade through that whole area. That area is just total devastation," Tuscaloosa resident David Ikard was quoted as saying by Alabama Live.
* Mississippi, where 32 were killed, including police officer Wade Sharp who died when a tree fell on his tent as he shielded his young daughter, a ranger with the National Park Service said. The 9-year-old was brought to a motorhome about 100 feet away where campsite volunteer Greg Maier was staying with his wife. Maier went back to check on the father and found him dead. "She wasn't hurt, just scared and soaking wet," he said.
* Georgia, where NBC News reported 12 deaths; Gov. Nathan Deal declared a state of emergency in Catoosa, Floyd, Dade and Walker counties.
* Tennessee, where 30 people were killed. The Hamilton County Sheriff's Office identified one victim as 41-year-old Mai Crumley, of Chattanooga, who died Wednesday when a tree fell on her trailer.
* Virginia, where the toll increased from one to eight with officials saying seven more were killed when a possible tornado hit a truck stop and several mobile homes.
The number of deaths was expected to rise with authorities still searching for missing people, NBC News said.
The Weather Channel said the deadliest known tornado outbreak happened in 1925, when 747 people were killed in the infamous Tri-State tornado. In 1974, 307 people were killed. Other notable outbreaks happened in 2008 (57 dead), 1999 (47), 1985 (76) and 1984 (57).
'Awful, terrible, disturbing'
"An awful, terrible, disturbing and deadly day of tornadoes unfolded on Wednesday, April 27, 2011 with more than 100 reported tornadoes striking several states in the South and even a few areas in the Mid-Atlantic," the Weather Channel said in an article written by three of its meteorologists.
Tuscaloosa, a city of more than 83,000 and home to the University of Alabama, was one of the hardest-hit areas.
Link
Amazing.
Dalai Lama
Really now? Guess what happens to a fire when one side of the fire triangle is removed? Warm moist air from the GOM is like one leg of the fire triangle. If you remove it many tornadoes will not form you can bank on that. Would any tornado experts like to chime in on this? The jet you mention is also another leg of the tornado triangle.
How does it look for all tornadoes?
I already know that but how does it look for all tornadoes?
In the aftermath of a severe tornado, owner Frank Evans stands on the rubble that was the Quik Pawn Shop in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. US meteorologists warned Thursday it would be a mistake to blame climate change for a seeming increase in tornadoes in the wake of deadly storms that have ripped through the US south.
AFP - US meteorologists warned Thursday it would be a mistake to blame climate change for a seeming increase in tornadoes in the wake of deadly storms that have ripped through the US south.
"If you look at the past 60 years of data, the number of tornadoes is increasing significantly, but it's agreed upon by the tornado community that it's not a real increase," said Grady Dixon, assistant professor of meteorology and climatology at Mississippi State University.
"It's having to do with better (weather tracking) technology, more population, the fact that the population is better educated and more aware. So we're seeing them more often," Dixon said.
But he said it would be "a terrible mistake" to relate the up-tick to climate change.
The tornadoes that ripped through the US south this week killed over 250 people, in the worst US weather disaster in years, with residents and emergency workers sifting through the rubble on Thursday.
Violent twisters that famously rip through the US south's "Tornado Alley" are formed when strong jet winds bringing upper-level storms from the north interact with very warm, humid air mass from the Gulf of Mexico, said David Imy from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
On Wednesday, a particularly potent storm was whipping up around the heart of that tornado-prone corridor where the states of Arkansas, Oklahoma, eastern Texas and northwest Louisiana meet, noted Kristina Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist at the AccuWeather.com website.
Sparking the severe thunderstorms from that point was the much warmer air arriving from the south, over the tropical Gulf. The combining winds at differing altitudes, said Pydynowski, created "significant twisting motion in the atmosphere, allowing the strongest thunderstorms to spawn tornadoes."
Such a mixture would not be prevalent along the US eastern seaboard, so rough weather in that region Thursday would not also spawn tornadoes, at least on the same scale, she said.
Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), also dismissed Thursday climate change as a factor in the deadly tornadoes: "Actually what we're seeing is springtime," he said.
"Many people think of Oklahoma as 'Tornado Alley' and forget that the southeast United States actually has a history of longer and more powerful tornadoes that stay on the ground longer."
Wednesday's deadly tornadoes, according to Imy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, were unusual for being "long track," meaning they were on the ground for a longer period of time than usual -- in this case, roiling across the land for 30 miles (48 kilometers) or more.
An average track would be less than five miles, said Imy.
However, the stronger-than-usual tornadoes affecting the southern states were actually predicted from examining the planet's climatological patterns, specifically those related to the La Nina phenomenon.
"We knew it was going to be a big tornado year," he said. But the key to that tip-off was unrelated to climate change: "It is related to the natural fluctuations of the planet."
----
Shhhhh don't tell that to MichaelSTL haha the Earth doesn't have natural fluctuations to him.
Hmmmmm to the first bolded part.
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