Disturbance Near Florida; 90E Organizing; Vicente Strengthens
The tropics have sprung to life over the past couple days. The most interesting feature close to home is an area of disturbed weather not far southeast of the south coast of Florida. This area is being given a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours by the National Hurricane Center. It is moving northwest at about 15mph. Here are some pros and cons for this disturbance:
Pros: Warm waters, moist environment, and it already has confirmed winds of at least tropical depression force
Cons: It is in an area of high surface pressures, none of the models have picked up on it, and it has quite a bit of land around it.
Any development of this system will hinge on what happens in the next 12 hours. We are heading into DMIN, so it will be more difficult for the system to maintain itself. However, if it survives this and can organize further overnight, it may have a chance of becoming Ernesto tomorrow morning. This is not particularly likely, however, so I give the system only a 30% chance of development. This is higher than the latest NHC update, but I still don't see development of this system. Regardless of development, impacts will be the same: Heavy rains and gusty winds for Florida.
In the East Pacific, Invest 90E has continued to organize today and is now being given an 80% chance of development in the next 48 hours. The system is currently in the open waters of the Pacific, far from the coast of Mexico. 90E is in fairly favorable conditions, and several models are picking up on it, so I give it a 90% development chance. Before it hits cooler waters in 5 days or so, 90E should strengthen some, probably peaking as a moderate to strong tropical storm, due to the low shear and warm waters in its path. 90E should not threaten land as it will move WNW, taking it further away from the Mexican coast. 90E should dissipate before reaching Hawaii.
Figure 1: Invest 90E.
In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Vicente has continued to slowly but steadily organize. It is moving very slowly WSW over the South China Sea with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has come into my line of thinking from the other night forecasting a minimal typhoon. As the official track shows, Vicente should soon stop its WSW motion and head WNW.
Figure 2: Official forecast track for Vicente.
Despite this, the main threat will certainly still be heavy, flooding rains from the slow moving storm as well as mudslides as it heads for an eventual landfall in northern Vietnam 3 days or so from now. Vicente should speed up some from its current 3 knot crawl, but it will still have time to dump up to a foot of rain in Vietnam.
Elsewhere, tropical development is unlikely for the next 2-4 days.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy your week!