Tropical Weather Discussion - Saturday, June 4th, 2011
Not a lot has changed in the last couple of days. Invest 93L fizzled out but no surprise there really. Invest 94L was initated yesterday by NHC and the Hurricane Hunters are tasked to fly it on Sunday June 5th. Here's the details....
In the Gulf of Mexico ......
For the most part, the Gulf of Mexico is clear and very dry on water vapor loops. The remnants of 93L can be seen in the western Gulf off the coast of northern Mexico. Circulation over the Gulf is easterly around a large strong high pressure center over the SE US.
In the Western Atlantic and Caribbean .....
In the west Atlantic, a deep trough of low pressure off the east coast extends down to the east of the Bahamas. An area of dry air can be seen on the north side of the subtropical jet exiting the southern Bahamas and heading NE out into the open Atlantic.
RGB Loop for 94L
In the Caribbean, a broad mid- and upper-level high pressure area dominates the circulation over most of the area and is helping to provide upper level diffluence for the convection associated with 94L in the central Caribbean. RGB and visible loops show a well defined low level low cyclonic circulation just west of the convection associated with 94L. If this system gets it's act together and the convection begins to develop near the center of circulation, I think we could see our first depression of the season. NHC gives the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.
In the Central and Eastern Atlantic .........
The open Atlantic is still pretty quiet but it's still too early for the Cape Verde season anyway!
Have a great day!