Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:42 PM GMT del 25 Giugno 2008 +5
An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.


Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters
San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)
Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain
San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge
()
Categories: Fire
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202. Patrap 12:43 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Geeezus..the CV conversation has gone on since Nov last year. It will occur.But not this week,nor the next .
But beating it to death every day wont make it happen any sooner.
Climatology rules that roost.
All the Humans do is cluck it to death like chickens in a Yard fighting over corn feed.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
203. Littleninjagrl 12:43 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Can someone please explain what the Pressure Risng/falling means? What's good, whats bad. Lamens terms please! lol thanks
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204. Patrap 12:45 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Atlantic Ocean View 3 Channels (Updated ~3 hours)Link
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206. FLWeatherFreak91 12:49 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
In the most basic sense:

Falling pressure = inclement weather
Rising = improving weather

Rising air provides lift for storms and also drops the air pressure- low pressure system

Sinking air inhibits storm development and rises the pressure- high pressure
Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458
207. Littleninjagrl 12:49 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
205. StormW 8:47 AM EDT on June 26, 2008

THANK YOU!!!! For once I can actually understand something about the weather without it looking like this when i read it....KJDSFHLSJKDFLISDKJFHLKF E^&R(WQ#&*$HF*(#$

Thanks again Storm!!!!
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208. TheWeatherMan504 12:49 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
203. Littleninjagrl 12:43 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Can someone please explain what the Pressure Risng/falling means? What's good, whats bad. Lamens terms please! lol thanks


When pressure is falling it means eiether an area of low pressure is geting closer or is forming. when pressure is rising it means eiether an area of high pressure is nearing you or is forming over you.
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037
209. beell 12:50 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
200.
456, I beleive this is the output of a script written by wu blogger KarenRei to display press/press trends

Cool!
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210. Cavin Rawlins 12:50 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
203. Littleninjagrl 8:43 AM AST on June 26, 2008
Can someone please explain what the Pressure Risng/falling means? What's good, whats bad. Lamens terms please! lol thanks


Pressure rising means air is sinking (excerting more force on the Earth's surface) - normally fine weather.

Pressure falling means air is rising (excerting less pressure on the Earth's surface) - normally bad weather.

The passage of snynoptic features cause pressure to rise and fall.

There is natural tide in the atmopshere that cause pressure to rise around 10am LT and 10 pm LT and fall around 4pm LT and 4am LT.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
211. Littleninjagrl 12:51 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Thanks to everyone else for the answers as well. You all are great.
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212. 69Viking 12:52 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Bass Pro might if you have one around or else maybe try a Radio Shack.
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213. FLWeatherFreak91 12:52 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
If any of you get the Tampa Tribune you should read the most ridiculous article that has ever been posted in the paper. "How global warming may lead to higher illegal immigration rates"

You'll laugh I promise
Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458
214. TheWeatherMan504 12:52 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    

211. Littleninjagrl 12:51 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Thanks to everyone else for the answers as well. You all are great.


your welcome.
Member Since: Maggio 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037
216. 69Viking 12:55 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
185. jphurricane2006

Make sure you get one that you can designate which county you live in. Check the features for the Standbye option.
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217. Littleninjagrl 12:58 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
So, If i'm looking at post 197. correctly, Nothing will form becuase pressure is rising all around florida with the exception of that one spot where presure is falling....right?
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218. FLWeatherFreak91 01:00 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
#217

You're right... It's highly unlikely that anything will form there today
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219. NEwxguy 01:04 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
If any of you get the Tampa Tribune you should read the most ridiculous article that has ever been posted in the paper. "How global warming may lead to higher illegal immigration rates"

You'll laugh I promise

I'm already laughing without even reading it.
Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069
220. 69Viking 01:05 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Good morning everyone! Just popped in to see what's going on. Seems the GOM Blob is trying but has little support so hopefully just a rain event. Still bone dry here in the FL Panhandle. Rain chances have lowered to 60% today and tomorrow, so far we've gotten the other 40%. Ok, have to run to an offsite location for work, back around lunchtime to check on the GOM Blob.
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223. TheWeatherMan504 01:09 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
wether or not the gom blob develops someone is going to get slamed by heavy rain.
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224. NEwxguy 01:11 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
other than the gulf the carribean and atlantic look really quiet,which is to be expected this time of year
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225. txalwaysprepared 01:13 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
I would gladly take some heavy rain around here!!

But it looks as if there is NO chance it's comnig to Texas :(
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226. OUSHAWN 01:15 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Does anyone know when the ULL in the GOM is suppose to move out? Until that happens there will be very little chance of anything happening out there.
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227. TheWeatherMan504 01:15 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
atlanta is in a drought because it gets alot of its rain from tropical systems that make landfall in florida,alabama,and louisiana.And we havent had any in 2 years.
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228. BajaALemt 01:17 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Morning folks...Lurking, perusing forecast soundings, maps, sats...lol.

NE!! ROFL ...I had to google that and I am laughing, shaking my head.

""Logic suggests the conditions exacerbated by climate change would increase the pool of potential recruits for terrorism," said Tom Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis." No WONDER the intelligence (I use the term loosely) got it (Iraq) wrong. Good lord *shakes head*
229. saintsfan06 01:32 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Where is the blob in the GOM going???
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230. Patrap 01:33 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    

... lightning safety week...
... indoor lightning safety...

The week of June 22-28... 2008 has been designated by the National
Weather Service as lightning safety week. During this week... the
National Weather Service in Slidell will issue lightning safety
information each day.

Todays topic is indoor lightning safety.

A house or other substantial structure offers the best protection
from lightning. For shelters to provide adequate protection... they
must be well grounded. A structure can be grounded on the outside...
within the walls... or a combination of both. Many small... open
shelters on athletic fields... Golf courses... roadside picnic areas...
school yards... and elsewhere are designed to protect people from
rain and sun... but not from lightning. Shelters that do not contain
plumbing or wiring throughout or some other mechanism for grounding
are not safe. Carports... patio covers... and wooden... vinyl... or
metal sheds provide no protection from lightning and should be
avoided during thunderstorms.

Once lightning enters a building... it can travel through electrical
lines... phone lines... plumbing... and radio and TV reception systems.
Phone use is the leading cause of indoor lightning injuries in the
United States. In addition... lightning can travel long distances
in both phone and electrical wires... particularly in rural areas.

To protect yourself and your family... stay away from windows and
outside doors as these can provide a path for a direct strike to
enter a building. Do not lie on the Concrete floor of a garage as
it is likely to contain a wire mesh that can conduct electricity.
Avoid contact with plumbing. This includes washing your hands...
taking a shower or Bath... washing dishes... or doing laundry.

In addition to a direct strike... lightning generates electrical
surges that can damage electronic equipment some distance from the
actual strike. To the extent possible... unplug any appliances or
electrical equipment well before the thunderstorm threatens.
If you plan to be away from your home when thunderstorms are
possible... be sure to unplug unneeded equipment before you leave.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
231. surfmom 01:34 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Good morning friends. Gulf of Mexico continues to have lake like conditions. The very conditions keeping us flat here, make for some nice chest high waves on the East Coast of FL this weekend...if you have gas $/carpool and you are desperate for waves that's where they will be.

I'm anchored on the west coast kids, critters and job --so I'm stuck paddling the buoys and waiting.
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232. IKE 01:40 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    

229. saintsfan06 8:32 AM CDT on June 26, 2008
Where is the blob in the GOM going???


Most likely the northern GOM coast.
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233. saintsfan06 01:43 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Thanks Ike

I am guessing that would mean NOLA will be getting lots of rain.
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234. weathermanwannabe 01:44 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Good Morning......Tropics quiet and here's hoping that the rain in the Gomex will keep pushing North and bring some rain to the Panhandle.....Looks like the "creep" of the Madsen-Julian oscillation towards the tropical Atlantic will make for nice couple of wet months for the SE (regardless of TS development) so that we can avoid any drought issues this Summer (unlike the Western US.........Amazing really how these patterns set up in different geographical regions of the US (drought vs. rain, etc.).....
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235. surfmom 01:45 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
Patrap thanks for the review on lightening. Tuesday we had a young fisherman (28yrs) struck by lightening while fishing in the gulf. It was another what I call "out of the blue' situation. He is presently in a medically induced coma, was rescued by a passer-by.

The situation..I had been out that afternoon to get my paddling workout. I kept checking the skies east of me as I was watching an ominus build up of thunderheads to the east. My observation showed that those clouds were at 15-20 maybe more miles away. I heard no thunder. After my work out I sat for a while (not wanting to come home and be domestic) but I kept an eye on the build-up. Around 4:30 I just didn't like the build-up and thought the potential was there for a strike -so I left.

After losing a friend from a strike in similar conditions --I always error on the side of caution. This was another such event - now it happen at 9:00pm in the final light of the day. I don't know if there was a build-up of clouds from the gulf or this was from out east --never the less, If the set-up up is there, even with the sun shining you can get popped. It's never worth the extra hour in the sun, surfing, fishing or whatever. People really don't understand how far these bolts can and do travel.
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236. pspredicts 01:46 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
If you are looking for a weather radio? i found one a couple of years ago at home depot it has am/fm weather tv recharges when plugged in and if you dont have an inverter when the power is out you can hand crank it and get about five to ten minutes of play
237. IKE 01:47 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
233. saintsfan06 8:43 AM CDT on June 26, 2008
Thanks Ike

I am guessing that would mean NOLA will be getting lots of rain.


50% today...tomorrow....60% on Saturday.
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238. surfmom 01:47 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
still 17 inches under what we need in SWFL, considering sharing some of that weatherman?????
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239. Tazmanian 01:48 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
94E




95E

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240. IKE 01:48 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
235. surfmom 8:45 AM CDT on June 26, 2008
Patrap thanks for the review on lightening. Tuesday we had a young fisherman (28yrs) struck by lightening while fishing in the gulf. It was another what I call "out of the blue' situation. He is presently in a medically induced coma, was rescued by a passer-by.

The situation..I had been out that afternoon to get my paddling workout. I kept checking the skies east of me as I was watching an ominus build up of thunderheads to the east. My observation showed that those clouds were at 15-20 maybe more miles away. I heard no thunder. After my work out I sat for a while (not wanting to come home and be domestic) but I kept an eye on the build-up. Around 4:30 I just didn't like the build-up and thought the potential was there for a strike -so I left.

After losing a friend from a strike in similar conditions --I always error on the side of caution. This was another such event - now it happen at 9:00pm in the final light of the day. I don't know if there was a build-up of clouds from the gulf or this was from out east --never the less, If the set-up up is there, even with the sun shining you can get popped. It's never worth the extra hour in the sun, surfing, fishing or whatever. People really don't understand how far these bolts can and do travel.


Had a 21 and 17 year-old, brothers, fishing for snapper on Choctawhatchee Bay Sunday afternoon. Struck by lightning...it killed them. The 21 year-old was a father of a 2 month old baby.
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241. weathermanwannabe 01:51 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
235. surfmom 9:45 AM EDT on June 26, 2008...Ditto; we lost a six year old girl to a lighting strike last weekend at a State park west of Tallahassee (Toreya); she was with her grandparents, the lighting hit a large tree, and the "bolt" traveled through the root of the tree to where the little girl was standing....Quite the tragedy and people really need to "clear out" ASAP when they see the clouds approach or hear thunder in the distance.....Any delay can cost lives as this example shows............
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242. surfmom 01:51 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
re 202 - great illustration , especially since I have chickens
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243. IKE 01:51 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
241...I remember reading that on WMBB.com
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244. TerraNova 01:53 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
233. saintsfan06 8:43 AM EST on June 26, 2008
Thanks Ike

I am guessing that would mean NOLA will be getting lots of rain.


The GFS model shows some pretty nice rainfall along the northern gulf, with areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle getting close to 3 inches in the next 48 hours. Louisiana/NOLA is looking at about an inch through a two day period.

48-hour Precipitation
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245. TheWeatherMan504 01:53 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
238. surfmom 1:47 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
still 17 inches under what we need in SWFL, considering sharing some of that weatherman?????


Sure, if it brings the price of orange juice down. jk. lol!

Member Since: Maggio 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037
246. surfmom 01:53 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
#205, great question Ninjagirl and great explanation, my weather lesson for the day - happy to say I understand that completely for a change
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247. TerraNova 01:54 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
200. Weather456 7:42 AM EST on June 26, 2008
197. TerraNova 8:36 AM AST on June 26, 2008

Can I have a link to the web page where that map came from? TIA


Here 456: Link
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248. NEwxguy 01:55 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
It still amazes me how people still run under a tree for safety in a thunderstorm,no matter how much the warning is put out there.
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249. Nolehead 01:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
what's the chances of anything forming in the BOC...are any of the models still saying if anything is going to form there??
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251. weathermanwannabe 01:58 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008    
On the lighting issue it is also good to see many athletic programs take it very seriously; I was at a Seminoles Football game last season and they did a "lightning delay of game" which lasted about 45 minutes; You could not see a cloud in the sky from the stadium, and, people were bitching, but, I'm certain that they were keeping an eye on local radar during the game and saw something that they did not like; Good for them in terms of the safety of the players and fans.......(one of the oldtimers in front of me was saying that he had been to every game for the last 10 years an he had never seen a lighting delay when it was not raining)....
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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