Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:42 PM GMT del 25 Giugno 2008 | +5 |
| Permalink | A A A |
|
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
 |
74 °F
Sereno
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Scarica le tue Etichette Meteo®! |
 |
Carica le tue foto |
 |
API Meteo per Sviluppatori NEW! |
 |
Iscriviti al sito |
 |
Vieni a trovarci su Facebook |
 |
Seguici su Twitter |
| Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc. | Chi siamo - Contattaci - Assistenza - Opportunità d’impiego - Comunicati stampa - Condizioni del servizio - Privacy Statement |
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 — Blog Index
Current Products Last Updated 2008 JUN 27 06 UTC
the date on the page header was correct, so i didn't even bother to look at the date on the graphic! sorry, folks!
March 7 2008.
2008 MAR07 00Z
a convective band with cloud top temperatures to -80c has developed
around the center of Tropical Depression Two-E during the past
several hours. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from both
SAB and TAFB...and re-examination of earlier scatterometer data
suggested 35 kt winds. Based on this...the depression is upgraded
to Tropical Storm Boris. The initial intensity is increased to 35
kt...and this may be conservative. The cirrus outflow is currently
good in the southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere.
The initial motion is 295/8. Water vapor imagery and large-scale
model analyses show a mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific north
of 15n between 115-135w. The models forecast this trough to move
westward and weaken...with a mid/upper-level ridge building
westward from Mexico to the north of Boris. This evolution should
allow Boris to move west-northwestward for 24 hr or so...followed
by a turn toward the west as shown by the GFS GFDL and HWRF. The
forecast track follows this scenario...with the new forecast being
a little north of and slower than the previous forecast. It is
down the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
corrected model consensus. The ECMWF shows an alternate
scenario...with Boris becoming stationary or moving eastward after
96 hr due to the development of another tropical cyclone to the
east. While another cyclone is a distinct possibility...the ECMWF
may be making the system too powerful and too large. Thus...its
forecast track for Boris appears unlikely at this time.
Boris is currently in an environment of light to moderate
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The large-scale models
forecast this pattern to persist for 24-36 hr. After that...they
forecast a piece of an upper-level trough currently over the Gulf
of Mexico to move westward and pass near Boris...accompanied by
a significant increase in shear. This would likely stop
intensification...so the intensity forecast calls for Boris to
reach a peak intensity of 50 kt in about 48 hr. The shear is
forecast to decrease after 72 hr...but by that time Boris is
forecast to move over cooler sea surface temperatures. An
alternative scenario based on current convective trends is that
Boris could strengthen faster than currently forecast for the first
36 hr and reach a higher peak intensity.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 27/1500z 12.6n 109.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 28/0000z 13.0n 110.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 28/1200z 13.3n 111.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 29/0000z 13.4n 113.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 29/1200z 13.5n 115.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 30/1200z 13.5n 118.5w 50 kt
96hr VT 01/1200z 13.5n 122.0w 40 kt
120hr VT 02/1200z 13.5n 125.0w 35 kt
$$
forecaster Beven
"The remainder of the Atlc is dominated by a
large ridge anchored on a 1028 mb surface high near 37n32w SW of
the Azores. A mostly dry and stable atmosphere is associated
with this ridge producing a wide swath of strong to moderate
easterly flow across the N tropical Atlc into the Caribbean Sea.
Surface ridge across the central Atlc is expected to gradually
strengthen during the next 24 hours."..........
That central-Atlantic wave may be west-bound.
IKE I agree, I would be suprised if it went North the way the GFS predicts it to
I'm talking about the wave near 8N and 36W.
this might be some trouble.
Where? There's no invest anywhere in the Atlantic.
Is there any models showing anything developing in the GOM.
Nope.
It also seems that these waves then traverse into the EPAC and might develop there.
"...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
an upper level low is pinching off in the west central Gulf near
25n93w. S to swly flow between this low and a ridge to its east
centered over the NW Caribbean extends northeastward towards
Cape Hatteras and is advecting deep layer tropical moisture
northward into the ern Gulf across Florida and the NW Bahamas.
Scattered showers are across the ern Bay of Campeche...Yucatan
Peninsula and the Gulf E of 93w. Isolated tstms are across the
central Gulf from 23n-26n between 88w-92w. At the surface a weak
ridge extending from the central Atlc is keeping a weak pressure
pattern in place across the Gulf. This is maintaining light se
10-15 kt winds across the Gulf. Expect scattered showers and
tstms to re-develop across the central Gulf Fri afternoon as
upper low is stagnant to move much and remain over the wrn Gulf
waters.".............
Nothing there.....
I mentioned it too yesterday but nobody responded, pretty much ignored my question when I asked about the convection SE of the Yucatan which is now that BLOB North of the Yucatan. No rain here yet but the radar is starting to pop and this time it looks to be more widespread and coming off the water so just maybe!
CIMSS 1200UTC Shear Map
Link
If it persists long enough you never know....
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 — Blog Index