Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Well, call me slow - I just connected 69Viking and FWBHS.

You in Niceville now?

If that ULL in the western gulf can finally move its rear end out of there like forecasted than maybe something can finally get interesting out there. There certainly is enough energy and SST's support it.

Good Morning

Tropical Update: Central Atlantic Disturbance

1053. OUSHAWN 9:57 AM EDT on June 27, 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PINCHING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N93W.EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW IS STAGNANT TO MOVE MUCH AND REMAIN OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS.

Looks like that ULL will drift around for the short term and keep things quiet in the Gulf..

1051. F1or1d1an

Look closer at my Avatar, that's not a FWB Viking. I'm just west of FWB on the south side of why 98 a stones throw from the sound. You?

Off to do chores...BBL

Well, call me slow - I just connected 69Viking and FWBHS.

Rats, I was hoping he had a 69 foot Viking Sportfisher and was going to the us all fishing.

1034. LOL Pearland speak for yourself. We've had maybe two days of rain at my house. We didn't get a drop yesterday :(

SHAWN - I want the blob to come here!!

1058. captainhunter

LOL! Need to win the lottery for that first! Nope, just have a 20ft. Nautic Star Center Console, gets me where I need to go. Love getting out on the water but I'll gladly sacrifice that for some rain this weekend!

1060. txalwaysprepared

No, bring the blob here!

Split all blobs into 4 pieces. One for texas, one for florida, one for the carolinas (NC needs rain. Not sure about SC), and one for california.

1062. It actually looks like the storms are moving straight north this morning.. whereas all blobs lately have sent rain east into Florida. But I may just be seeing things. But that would mean neither of us get the rain :(

Here in Brevard County we've had plenty of rain for the past few days and more expected for the weekend. From the looks of the sky, it is on the way! Nice lighting shows too!

1061. 69Viking

The 20ft center console gets a little better gas mileage as well! LOL.

Agreed, I too will gladly sacrifice sailing this weekend for some much needed rain.

Hello all, so what does the tropics look like? Is the tropical Atlantic still sleeping? If we could just get the rain we all need all of the future TS,Hurricanes can just be fishy's. We still need a couple of yrs to get things right.
Sheri

The blob in CATL looks interesting this morning. If it was about 10 degrees further north I would give it a chance, its a little to far south for me to give it a chance.

O well, at least there is something to watch today.

HK make it 5 pieces and 1 for Bama. That'll work. We got a good shower yesterday. I have never felt the rain so cold. It was kinda weird. But nice since the rain settle the dust at out boat repair shop.
Sheri

Hey everyone, I know its a bit long, but a really interesting article for those who like me are trying to learn about tropical weather and put all the diff. terms together:

"In many cases, TCs in the NA are developed associated with African easterly waves (e.g., Landsea and Gray 1992; Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996; Thorncroft and Hodges 2001). The activity of African easterly waves intensifies (weaker) when the rainfall amount over the western Sahel region exceeds (below) normal. Namely, TC activity in the NA seems to be increased during wet years of the westernSahel. Based on the statistics of the tracking of vorticity centers connected to African easterly waveactivity, Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) showed that the 850-hPa easterly wave at the West African coast between about 10°N and 15°N is highly correlated to TC activity in the NA. This correlation isparticularly strong for the period 1994−1998. This indicates that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not influenced only by the total number of African easterly waves but also by the number of African easterlywaves that leave the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes. The western Sahel rainfall is well correlated with ENSO events. Hence, most parts of the interannualvariation in the TC activity in the NA would also be understood by an eastward shift of warm SST regions to the eastern Pacific and corresponding changes in the large-scale convection associated withENSO (e.g., Shapiro 1987; Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996; Tang and Neelin 2004). The ENSO−TC relation results from changes in the vertical wind shear—an enhanced divergent outflow from deepcumulus convection during El Nino years results in an increase in westerly wind in the upper troposphere over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic; however, variations in the lower tropospheric easterly winds are relatively small. Combining these different influences on zonal wind in the upper andlower troposphere, the vertical wind shear over the NA increases during El Nino years as compared toLa Nina years (Gray and Sheaffer 1991); consequently, the number of TCs and their duration arereduced during El Nino (Landsea et al. 1999). Tang and Neelin (2004) suggested that the anomalous tropospheric temperatures arising communicated the Pacific due to wave dynamics influence the TC development by affecting column stability relative to equilibrium with NA SST. Bell and Chelliah (2006) further investigated into the tropospheric circulation and SST changes that are linked to Atlantic tropical cyclones, both on interannual and interdecadal timescales. Larson et al. (2006) indicated that the AO (and/or NAO) has also acquired a strong influence on theinterannual and intraseasonal variability of TC activity in the NA—an enhanced (decreased) TC activityduring the positive (negative) phase of the AO. In the positive phase of the AO, the subtropical ridge inthe NA is enhanced; a weakening of the Hudson Bay low in the eastern United States and astrengthening and westward extension of the Bermuda high in the western NA. The westerly wind shear is weakens over the main developing region and the tropical easterly jet intensifies over Africa.All of these characteristics provide favorable conditions for TC development. Interestingly, large-scalecirculations for the positive (negative) phase of the AO appear to be similar to those for La Nina (ElNino). Namely, during La Nina years, large-scale circulation is more conductive to TC developmentduring the AO-positive phase than during the negative phase and, during El Nino years. Therefore, it isless conductive to the TC development during the AO-negative phase than during the positive phase. The influence of the QBO on the TC activity is known to be pronounced in the NA than in the other ocean basins (e.g., Gray 1984; Gray et al. 1992; Elsner et al. 1999). During the westerly (easterly) phase of the QBO, the strong TC genesis (i.e., hurricanes) frequency is above (below) normal. It is hypothesized that the ventilation processes in the horizontal wind across the top of the TC are apossible physical mechanism of the QBO-related change. The speed of the zonal wind in the tropicalstratosphere is weak during the westerly phase of the QBO. In this case, there is relatively less ventilation resulting in a positive effect on the TC development. In addition, Shapiro (1989)demonstrated that the largest correlations between storm activity in the NA and the 30 hPa wind areobserved in June. This indicates that the TCs tend to attain a higher intensity when the QBO is in its westerly phase in the tropical lower stratosphere. Recently, however, it is noted that at least in the Atlantic, the QBO is no longer being utilized for

seasonal hurricane forecasting.. The QBO−Atlantic hurricane relationship that Gray (1984) identifiedfrom 1950 to 1983 disappeared from 1984 to present date. Thus, NOAA does not consider the QBOphase for TC forecasting (Landsea, C., personal communication) Maloney and Hartmann (2000a) suggested that the MJO is the strongest influencing factor on theintraseasonal variation of TC activity in the NA. During the westerly phase of the MJO, stronganomalous westerlies are observed in the eastern Pacific extending to the western Caribbean beingaltered by the southwesterlies, resulting in cyclonic circulation anomalies over the Gulf of Mexico. Inthis period, greatly enhanced TC activity is observed over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean due to the increased genesis frequency of TC over these regions. During the easterly phase of the MJO,the TC genesis is significantly suppressed because anticyclonic circulation anomalies are formed overthose regions."

Folks Tropical Depression 2E is going to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris at the next advisory...The NHC's floater is labeled Boris.

North Pole Could be Ice-Free This Summer


Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience Managing Editor
LiveScience.com
Thu Jun 26, 10:55 PM ET



Arctic sea ice could break apart completely at the North Pole this year, allowing ships to sail over the normally frozen top of the world.


The potential landmark thaw - the first time in human history the pole would be ice-free - is a stark sign of global warming, according to an article Friday on the web site of the The Independent, a London newspaper.


"Symbolically it is hugely important," said Mark Serreze of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado. "There is supposed to be ice at the North Pole, not open water."


Last year, the fabled Northwest Passage opened as Arctic ice retreated more than ever before.


There is no land at the North Pole, but as long as anyone has looked, it has remained a giant block of ice year-round. Scientists have been watching Arctic sea ice melt more and more each year. But each summer in recent years, the amount of ice has gotten thinner and thinner. Each winter's freeze, therefore, results in a thinner pack that, this summer, could melt altogether.


"The issue is that, for the first time that I am aware of, the North Pole is covered with extensive first-year ice," Serreze is quoted by The Independent. "I'd say it's even-odds whether the North Pole melts out."


Russia and other countries, meanwhile, have been arguing over who has rights to the region's resources, including potential oil reserves.


Several studies in recent years have predicted that the North Pole could be ice-free within a few decades. Alarm has ratcheted up every summer as the ice gets thinner and thinner. In a study released June 10, scientist said the rapid meltoff in the Arctic could threaten permafrost in continental soil elsewhere above the Arctic circle in a warm version of the snowball effect.


Last summer saw a record melt of Arctic sea ice, which shrank to more than 30 percent below its average. Around the peak of the melt, in September, air temperatures over land in the western Arctic from August to October were more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the 1978-2006 average.


"The rapid loss of sea ice can trigger widespread changes that would be felt across the region," said Andrew Slater, also of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

1072. StormW 9:34 AM EST on June 27, 2008
CATL disturbance...mid level, possible LLC located 7N;36W based on RGB satellite loop.

Morning Storm!

Isn't the blob in the CATL ITCZ convection? It doesn't look like it's associated with a wave or anything of the sort and I don't see any evidence of a low pressure center forming.

Also, do you know where I could find upper level analyses (500mb, 700mb, etc.) for the whole Atlantic basin? I tried Unisys but all I could find there were charts for North America. Thanks in advance.

786- Nice article. what phase is the QCB in right know. I know they say they don't use it but i was just wondering.
Sheri

1072. StormW 10:34 AM AST on June 27, 2008
CATL disturbance...mid level, possible LLC located 7N;36W based on RGB satellite loop.

that is where I saw it too. Quikscat also supported the formation of a LLCC. Its all on my blog.

02EBORIS.35kts-1005mb

1065. conchygirl

Quit bragging! LOL! Lucky you!

1074. Has to be somewhere on this site...just look.

456...the central-Atlantic wave...I noticed on your blog you didn't give much indication of a movement. Is it moving west and at what speed?

Appears to be moving west...definitely a circulation with it.

We have a new tropical wave in the CATL along 36W.

1081. IKE 10:45 AM AST on June 27, 2008
456...the central-Atlantic wave...I noticed on your blog you didn't give much indication of a movement. Is it moving west and at what speed?

Despite a layer of Saharan Dust to its north, the area will be monitored as it meanders slowly within a weak steering environment.

I did not determine the movement becuz of that.

1085. Weather456 9:48 AM CDT on June 27, 2008
1081. IKE 10:45 AM AST on June 27, 2008
456...the central-Atlantic wave...I noticed on your blog you didn't give much indication of a movement. Is it moving west and at what speed?

Remember its not a wave. Its the ITCZ and thus it is embedded within a very weak steering enviroment, so movement wasnt determined. Thats why the UKMET track is unusual.

See post above/below you by Drak?

Does this wave have a chance to develop??

Yea I correct it.

the nhc is now forcasting BORIS to have winds of 50kt with in the next few days

In summary for us to see this CATL wave develop in June the following conditions should be present:

1. The wave is at 10 -15N with a 850hPa Easterly vorticity
2. La Nina conditions are present
3. Positive Atlantic Oscillation
4. OBD is in the Westerly phase in the lower tropical stratosphere
5. The MJO is in the Westerly Phase

I myself don't fully understand what all the terms mean but google is a great tool ..

1087. Stormchaser2007 10:50 AM AST on June 27, 2008
Does this wave have a chance to develop??

IMO...yea

1087. Stormchaser2007 9:50 AM CDT on June 27, 2008
Does this wave have a chance to develop??

Looks pretty good on IR....

Link

txalwaysprepared...

I believe you are correct in the storms moving more northerly today and I think it's because they are riding the edges of the ULL. As the ULL backs off to the west or sw it will bring those storms closer to us.

it's funny how rapidly the NHC has changed their minds on Boris' intensification forecast. LOL

1074. TerraNova

North Atlantic 700 mb Height and Winds

Thanks Sheri, I have no idea...the boys on the blog would know...anyone?? Kay

1074. TerraNova

Forget my link. Look at 1097.

EDIT: nevermind...i found the right page! sorry about that!