Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I notice there isn't a tropical wave associated with that convection near 35W. It's probably just some ITCZ convection that will be gone by later today or tomorrow.

Yeah Extreme, I just noticed that...I'm still waiting for a visible SAT to confirm this, though...

Morning StormW!

Well I will BBL

MOrning Everyone - morning StormW!

if this area of convection is not a wave ---it was not mentioned in the 8.05 tropical disussion then it is a pertabation from the ITCZ

1007. DestinJeff 8:01 AM EDT on June 27, 2008

Well, if we can talk about fires, floods, tornados, et al, why can't we talk about the north pole too? I actually think it's interesting, since the last genuinely warm period up there nobody from our culture was around measuring things.

back later off for a medical revieuw. by that time the blog will be very interesting.

Oh Well...my Java won't let me get satellite loops from the SSD Tropical Satellite Imagery, so I can't confirm if there is a surface low, with this CATL ''disturbance''...

1013. DestinJeff 8:10 AM EDT on June 27, 2008

. . . it is the comments that are excruiating sometimes.

Yeah, that part's true. I think people are getting a bit better about the tone of their comments, though.

That, or all the trolls are being fended off by WunderYakuza's troll gate . . .

Is this that last Twave that went through the ECar last weekend, or has that already gone through to the EPac?

Thats a wave passing over the yuc and then the boc

Its easy here.All the rules are above the comment box.
As the season ramps up and it gets busy in Here,
Expect a Lot of "boing"!

If ya get my drift.

very impressive looking

To answer my own question and that of stoormfury/stormdude:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S
OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SRN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 54W-57W AND ALSO OVER SRN GUYANA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY ON THE WRN
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

different perspective showing the waves...

GOES IR Loop GOM Link

sun continues to be quiet....

good morning everyone!

Wow the EPac is active, 2 Invest and one TD? Thank goodness not a lot of land in the way for them to hit anytime soon.

How's our Atlantic wave coming along?

good morning all

A nice flare up near 35 West but at the moment no vorticity at either the 850 or 700 mb levels.

Although the quikscat pass missed it given the vorticity readings in the upper levels I would not expect any type of a surface low at this time either. It is very low in latitude and embedded in the ITCZ. Probably a rain maker for South America.

There is an anticyclone to its immediate West so let's see what happens when it gets there, assuming the high is still around

actually one of those invests became two-E WU just doesn't update that well so one invest and one Depression
the red circle is the invest notice the only other thing out there is the depression

NHC not expecting much of TD 2-E

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 12.0N 108.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 12.4N 109.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.7N 111.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 13.0N 113.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.5N 115.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.5N 118.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 13.5N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 13.5N 126.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Good morning everyone! TGIF indeed!

So how long can all that convection continue to fire up near the Yucatan and the GOM before something finally says screw the odds and develops? Or better yet just moves far enough North to bring some rain to my portion of the NWF Panhandle.

1031. i think your second supposition is more plausible! LOL

1032. pearlandaggie

I agree and the Fort Walton Beach area would be happy with it that's for sure. We've had a couple 60% chance of rain days now and no rain. Today is another 60% chance so I guess we'll see.

1033. we've been fortunate and had four or five rain days out of the last ten or so. it was really dry before then. i sure hope you guys get some of that moisture in the form of precipitation (as opposed to humidity!).

Navy site has 2E as Boris.

not a whole lot of vorticity associated with that patch over the yucatan...

Good morning everyone. I see the GFS is still calling for development in the EATL.

1035. DestinJeff

Just a brief light shower, enough to wet the roads but not even enough to create any puddles. That sure was a nice cell that moved North through Niceville though, I saw it on radar. Maybe today.....

It looks like the Gulf may be waking up today. What do you guys think?

we have a new TS and that name is BORIS in the East Pacific i saw it on the navy site


has for 95E can you say RIP

There is still a Low pressure spin about 100 off shore the west coast of Florida.....due west of Hernando County

The Low off the West coast of Florida should make lots of moisture coming to the SE panhandle.

Morning everyone. The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC continue to predict tropical activity in the East Atlantic next week. None of the other models have caught on.

Sure looks like California could use some of the rain that the east coast is getting (midwest section too). Isn't it weird how sometimes you never get what you need, and then sometimes you get too much of a good thing. Just can't control that mother nature gal.

{poof}

1042. TampaSpin 8:28 AM EST on June 27, 2008
There is still a Low pressure spin about 100 off shore the west coast of Florida.....due west of Hernando County

That's most likely an eddie caused by rising convective currents, like the one we saw yesterday. Buoy/Surface observations don't show a circulation and the surface charts and 500mb heights don't indicate that a trough is forming in the area.

Wow, the EPAC is certainly below average. Only on the B Storm. Were currently Above Average, we don't usually see a storm till July, and we had already Arthur.

Morning Folks.....Looks to me like my chances (Tally/Big Bend Area)for some substantial rain from that "low" in the Gulf went poof overnight....But, there's a 60% shot at the normal afternoon pop-up showers so I'll see what happens in the afternoon....That area around 5N 33W (in the ITCZ) looks interesting this am....Seems too low for development but it will "moisten" the road for a little bit as it is otherwise pretty dry out there in the MDR right now....

1046. TerraNova 9:46 AM EDT on June 27, 2008

You might be correct....it has moved further North since yesterday.

I found this interesting this morning...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008


DISCUSSION...


UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD DRIFT S AND SSW WRAPPING IN
MOISTURE TO SETX FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.


AGAIN WILL IGNORE THE TROPICAL SPINUP OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT
SOME MODELS ARE POINTING TO AS WIND SHEAR NOT CONDUCIVE AND FINER
MODEL DETAILS LOOK SUSPECT.45


I didn't realize there were any models spinning up something in the western gulf. Does anyone know which ones they are?

Well, call me slow - I just connected 69Viking and FWBHS.

You in Niceville now?