Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:42 PM GMT del 25 Giugno 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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Categories: Fire

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701. Stormchaser2007 11:55 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Discussion,dont modify what you said! Im sure everyone would love to hear what you said about them!! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

703. yamil20 11:56 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
697. Tropicaldiscussion can you please leave of this blog if you dont want to disscuss something about weather,you are so disrespectful,how can you post something like that here!! Member Since: Giugno 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

704. JLPR 11:56 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
stormchaser the NHC isnt updating the satellites =( There isnt much convection in the gulf Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

706. pearlandaggie 11:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
699. last year by July 7th we had had an entire year's worth or rain! as dry as it's been, we were only about 4-5 inches below normal until the recent rains. i think the la nina conditions that were bringing us the dry weather are starting to break down (no real data to support that other than observation) Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

707. TampaSpin 11:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
You can sorta see how it went up the coast maybe.....lol Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

708. HadesGodWyvern 11:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
688. extreme236 11:46 PM GMT on June 26, 2008 I would say there is a high chance for 94E and 95E to develop into Tropical Depressions soon -- yup looks like both invest will have the "HIGH" Potential in the next TWO Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

709. yamil20 11:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
whats wrong with you men,stop your comments. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

710. JLPR 11:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
remember the ignore user button if someone annoys you =) Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

711. severstorm 11:57 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
702 take it somewhere else nobody wants to see that Member Since: novembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

713. Stormchaser2007 12:01 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Dang JL!! Thanks didnt realize that! Nice catch Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

714. Tazmanian 12:02 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
that fool Tropicaldiscussion ban me from his blog he is now baning evere one ohs post there Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

715. melwerle 12:03 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
What a crack up! I got banned from tropicaldepressions blog too for posting what admin said on his blog earlier about not taking matters into you own hands...and he comes back for more. Don't feed the trolls...hit ignore and move on...what a knucklehead. Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

716. TampaSpin 12:03 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
The surface low NW of Tampa is a true spinner...but it just can't build for the shear. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

718. thelmores 12:04 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Looks to me the low we have been observing should be onshore within the next hour or so...... add all pressures I have seen are well above 3o inches..... Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

719. JLPR 12:05 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
ha lol I posted there It was just so funny lol =P so I guess he banned me too but he is on my ignore list so I cant even see his blog ha! =D Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

720. TampaSpin 12:05 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Thelmores it is actually moving NNW Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

721. melwerle 12:07 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
let's put him on press' boat as the bilge cleaner... Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

722. pearlandaggie 12:07 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
well, i guess the latest data doesn't necessarily support my observational theory! doh! Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

723. Tazmanian 12:07 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
some in needs to be done about tropicaldepressions blog and fast Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

725. Stormchaser2007 12:08 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Finally Tropical Weather Dicussion was banned.... Banned This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for an indefinite period of time. All blog content is judged according to the Community Standards. Please make sure that you have read and understood them. If you believe this is an error, please contact the Administrator. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

726. melwerle 12:09 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
tropical depression has a screw loose...tell him to go make me a sandwich...lol Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

728. thelmores 12:10 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
720... Hmmmm.... Let me put my beer googles on and take another look! LOL We will be losing visible very soon though! :( Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

729. Tazmanian 12:10 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
oh god oh is going to help us now Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

730. pearlandaggie 12:10 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

732. Tazmanian 12:11 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
where is the Admin when you need one Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

733. OUSHAWN 12:12 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Does anyone know when the ULL in the western gulf is suppose to move out? It's just sitting there and has been for days and as long as it does there will be no development in the GOM. I haven't really heard yet. Member Since: Settembre 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

734. IKE 12:12 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
He'll be banned soon enough TAZ...ignore him. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

735. thelmores 12:12 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
all the NE flow makes it extremely difficult to see what is going on at the surface... How much time till landfall do you estimate Tampa?? Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

736. Stormchaser2007 12:12 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
724. Thats all i can handle!!!!! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

737. TampaSpin 12:12 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
I love how he post things then edits real quick. What a creap. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

738. Tazmanian 12:13 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
IKE yup i do that Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

739. Levi32 12:14 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Rule number 1 about trolls: IGNORE THEM!!! Rule number 2 about trolls: Report them! All he wants is us to do is post funny stuff and respond to his antics. The admins will take care of him soon enough. If he posts something......just move along with our discussion as if he wasn't here. That's the best way to deal with it. Don't even talk about him anymore. Not even indirectly....act like he's not here. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

740. TampaSpin 12:14 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
735. thelmores 8:12 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 all the NE flow makes it extremely difficult to see what is going on at the surface... How much time till landfall do you estimate Tampa?? I think North Florida panhandle area...several hours....off shore the further north it goes the less shear there is also Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

741. thelmores 12:14 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Tropical.... congrats.... you are the first person I have "ignored" in my 3 years on this blog! Great job! :) Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

743. pearlandaggie 12:15 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
uh oh...some posts are being deleted..... Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

744. Patrap 12:15 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Since I cant see the Blogger,please dont repost the offending Posts. That is why we use the ignore. feature. So italicizing and re-posting allows the Behaviour to continue. WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog. 1. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short. 2. Stay on topic. 3. No monomania. 4. No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission. 5. Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely. 6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X". 7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space. 8. No spamming. 9. No spamming. 10. Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly. Tips Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111474

745. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:15 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
hes banned you stormchaser from his blog he has also banned me thats ok cause we are working on the isp # and tropical will soon be no more by the way tropical thanks for banning me from your blog Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40546

746. JLPR 12:16 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
730. pearlandaggie 12:10 AM GMT on Junio 27, 2008 lol very funny =P Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

747. thelmores 12:16 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
740.... "several hours".... How many dog years is that? LOL You really think there is any potential?? I just don't see it..... Genesis just takes longer than this little spinning top has..... Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

749. beell 12:17 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
Does anyone know when the ULL in the western gulf is suppose to move out? It's just sitting there and has been for days and as long as it does there will be no development in the GOM. I haven't really heard yet. 733. OUSHAWN, GFS shows a weakening ULL at 250mb through 12Z tomorrow in the W GOM. Gets pretty indistinct after that. Member Since: Settembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12877

750. OUSHAWN 12:17 AM GMT del 27 Giugno 2008
I guess it's difficult to get an answer on here with all the drama and crap going on. Isn't this a weather blog? Geez people, ignore the trolls and continue to talk weather...is it really that hard to do? Member Since: Settembre 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

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