Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:42 PM GMT del 25 Giugno 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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Categories: Fire

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651. Stormchaser2007 11:27 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
So back to the weather....Whats happening in the GOM?? Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

652. pearlandaggie 11:28 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
628. LOL...my thoughts exactly! i've been lurking most of the afternoon watching the dust from a safe distance! Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

653. Tazmanian 11:28 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
hi all Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

654. TampaSpin 11:28 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
weatherman504 i just copied and saved that troll spray.....lol Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

655. KoritheMan 11:29 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
So back to the weather....Whats happening in the GOM?? Some sort of circulation appears to be developing north of Tampa Bay, as TampaSpin already pointed out earlier. I checked this myself. The spin isn't easy to see with satellite imagery, but it's there. I noticed it after awhile. In addition, numerous buoy observations show the pressure is rapidly falling in association with the area of disturbed weather. There's only one thing I haven't checked, and that's the direction in which the winds are coming from. In order to tell if something is trying to form, we're gonna need to check that. Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

657. KoritheMan 11:30 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Hi, Taz. Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

658. Patrap 11:30 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
We all bring something to the table here,...Flood Its the Good Drs. Entry,. I think that gets lost in the fray sometimes. Ugh,Sir! aint required fer my silly butt...Flood thanx though,Dude Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

659. KoritheMan 11:30 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Guys, does the latest GFS model run continue to develop our Cape Verde tropical storm next week? If so, where would this critter go, any thoughts? Look at the top of the previous page. Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

660. Tazmanian 11:31 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
hi . KoritheMan do you think 92L will pop up in the gulf??? Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

662. pearlandaggie 11:31 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

663. Stormchaser2007 11:32 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
JFV, E.Atl Storm 156 hours at tropical storm strength....IMO Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

665. pearlandaggie 11:33 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
one more...couldn't resist :) Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:33 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
well lots of fun in here Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

667. Stormchaser2007 11:36 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Well tampa, Rammb has a floater on it now.... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

669. TampaSpin 11:37 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
The only thing stopping it is shear....as you can see the tops getting whipped off. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

670. extreme236 11:37 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
If you check out the newest EPAC TWD, the NHC now says 95E could become a depression in the next 48 hours as well as 94E. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

673. Stormchaser2007 11:39 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
JFV, according to the GFS it would steer it NW to N later in the track...which is typical for this time of year. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

674. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:39 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
wu will be swift warnings have already been sent do not take matters into ones own hands tag it bag it and move along Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

676. Floodman 11:39 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
658. Patrap You're right, and I think that does get past us sometimes...Dr. Masters is owed great thanks for this forum. As for not calling you sir, I'll bear that in mind, Pat...I'm not a sir either, nor am I Mr. Flood (that honor belongs to the Cards great, Curt Flood...LOL). Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

677. pearlandaggie 11:39 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

678. thelmores 11:40 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
seems there is something brewing, but its a non-issue.... very little time before landfall, and unlikely to amount to much..... if it were further out in the Gulf..... Good eye though Tampa..... Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

679. Stormchaser2007 11:41 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
JFV its on the Gulf and its probably there for the increase in convection there.... ______________________________________________ Also I thin we might see some Fujiwara on these two soon... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

681. pearlandaggie 11:41 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
how's the rain situation in florida? i mean, i realize that you're still under drought conditions, but how much rain have you guys logged recently? Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

682. Tazmanian 11:43 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
236 that is the old TWO from 11:30am Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

683. thelmores 11:44 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Conditions at 42021 as of (6:00 pm EDT) Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in Tendency (PTDY): -0.11 in ( Falling Rapidly ) pressure falling rapidly, but still relatively high........ Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

684. TampaSpin 11:44 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
678. thelmores 7:40 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 Looking at Stearing it should stay off shore for a while....IMO Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

685. Stormchaser2007 11:45 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
680. We have to see how it all plays out...but yeah im surprised too. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

686. thelmores 11:46 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
684..... That may be true.... but still not enough time friend..... Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

687. Stormchaser2007 11:46 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Decent convection... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

688. extreme236 11:46 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
I would say there is a high chance for 94E and 95E to develop into Tropical Depressions soon. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

689. thelmores 11:46 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
why no 7pm at 42021?? Member Since: Settembre 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

690. Floodman 11:47 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
679. Stormchaser2007 I was wondering about those two orbiting one another...proximity? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

691. Stormchaser2007 11:48 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
The Last quickscat caught 35mph winds...but no circ. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

692. severstorm 11:49 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
681 zephyrhills fl. 5.14 inches this month should be over 8 inches. Member Since: novembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

694. TampaSpin 11:49 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
689. thelmores 7:46 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 why no 7pm at 42021?? It runs 1 hour behind...next update will be in about 10 minutes. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

695. pearlandaggie 11:50 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
692. how much are you guys behind for the year? Member Since: Settembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

696. Stormchaser2007 11:51 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
690. They might actually start to interact with one another soon...especially if they both become Tropical Storms. That would be a pretty interesting event if it were to unfold. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

698. Stormchaser2007 11:53 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
693. I dont know In this frame it has the Storm finding a weakness in the ridge and moving north...btw No problem I always enjoy our conversations! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

699. severstorm 11:54 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
692 i'm 1.5 over for this year thats because we had a very wet feb. and mar. but i was 20 inches below last year only had 29.58 inches all of last year tinder box here. Member Since: novembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

700. Stormchaser2007 11:54 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

701. Stormchaser2007 11:55 PM GMT del 26 Giugno 2008
Discussion,dont modify what you said! Im sure everyone would love to hear what you said about them!! Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

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