Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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Why not, you have before? LOL
Everybody on this board has at one time or another..... part of the fun! :)
well I cant go against the NHC, they help declare the invest, so I guess we go from here
I am just a bit puzzled by the amount of excitement becuase of it, its not like you won the lottery lol
If I'm not mistaken, you answered that question about two days ago. Whenever we have our first invest, depression, storm, or hurricane, people get excited that the long lull has ended and that there is action taking place. Only natural to be excited.
this storm has potential, albeit a small one! LOL
90LINVEST.25kts-1006mb-170N-874W
Wouldn't that pretty much be tropical depression strength?
(blog)Hi Mike.....
I guess its 90L/Alma no?
Ooooh....harsh!! LOL
Its the first Invest, just like the first tropical depression and first tropical storm and first hurricane. Its just like June 1. As a tropical weather forecaster...the first Invest is very exiciting...whether or not it develops. And btw, we need something to discuss and talk about to keep us educated and tip top for Arthur, and so on, so would u stop ruining it 4 us. I think we all know the limitations against it so no need to point it all the time. :)
Looking at that I would think it might keep the Alma name.
305. Stormchaser2007 6:32 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
90LINVEST.25kts-1006mb-170N-874W
Wouldn't that pretty much be tropical depression strength?
winds are only one side of the equation....the other being a define circulation and peristent organization.
LOL!!
Anyone want to buy a great set of womens' clubs? I am stuck here for a while...
VISIBLE of 90L
Ok, I feel better:-)
I see the Atlantic season is ready to go with 90L. Dmin is playing a part it seems in weaker convection but the system looks more impressive on visible/RGB imagery.
Also, does anyone have a link to the NHC's Atlantic model guidance page? Thanks.
over all message Alma and is remnants shouldn't form
now I will be laying in the bed at three oclock in the morning going "and I ran.... I ran so far away, I just ran..... I couldn't get away!"
OMG, 90L, MY HEAD IS GOING TO EXPLODE! :D
Yeah Drak, we do... Say hello now, because it won't last long with the blocking High preventing it from going N much. It'll be shoved WWD back into land.
I think it still has a chance probably in the BOC though. The GFS did a good job tracking this.
Just got home from the office and see 90L up
With Alma having dissipated virtually overnight the energy from the remnant low wasted no time hooking up with the trough in the NW Caribbean.
However, 90L will be heading ashore as soon as it starts to move unless the steering changes radically
Question....how many hours does anyone thing it will be before 90L gets taken off the navy site because the remnant low from alma gets pushed back onto land?
AH HA!!!
"Shouldn't" reform......
but see thats why we are are here...... we don't have all the facts on cyclone genesis.....
sometimes "THEY DO" form......
I don't see any formation in the Caribbean, in the past twenty years only two first storms formed in the Caribbean ( only the most western and northern parts) and the only first storm to hit a Caribbean island ( in lower leewards ) died right after entry into Caribbean. You need to wait for a favorable Caribbean
The Caribbean is favorable for development. An upper level anticyclone is overhead and the TCHP is above 80 is most parts of the northern and Central Caribbean even in the Bahamas.
Get your popcorn and your hands washed, 90L has arrived, awaiting arrival of the doomcaster's and whishcasters.
The flight should be coming in the next hour.
Try having the "Freak Parade" stuck in your head for over two hours!!!!
*For referrence, check my blog and a GS entry*
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