Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
Even the local keys police say it was never this bad in the old days of the 80's and 90's. They don't like the mandatory evacs anymore than we do... but the evacs are federally enforced so we can't do a damn thing about it. I ain't waiting around for someone to kick me out of my home in July, I'm going now.
yea, Karen had what about 9 lives? :)
"Roatan now reporting SW winds @ 18 mph and a pressure of 1007 mb and falling. Interesting"
kman, could this just be thunderstorms?
24 hr pressure tendencies are use to aviod that...it also shows its falling.
Must be the remnant of Karen! (just kidding)
That is funny, the storm that just wouldn't completely go away! and don't forget her girlfriend Melissa! LOL
All signs and the NHC point otherwise.
now we got a swirl??? LOL
Must be the remnant of Karen! (just kidding)
Nar it looks more like Ingrid.
I do wish we could get a soggy but not windy system over Florida this weekend or next week.
There..... I put some lipstick on the pig..... is that better? LOL
This all is no suprise to me, I've been saying this all was a real possibility since before Alma made landfall yesterday morning.
Now where will it go?
Naysers zip
but do we have Aurther son of Alma ???
Looks like Alma wants to throw more curveballs at us and the NHC. So much for sitting back and relaxing about Alma. Just bring some moisture into Florida and I'll be very happy.
cchs, did that really deserve caps and an exclamation point
its not like the system became a CAT 5 or anything
Was this necessary to point that out JP...not needed to start a war over something so pity.
Can you send me the link to the navy website so I can bookmark please?
Thank you!
Melissa
CCH 1
Naysers zip
but do we have Aurther son of Alma ???
IF this were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Arthur. It will have to quickly organize and move further north and away from the Yucatan for that to happen, but just remember what Alma did yesterday. It formed an eye-like feature within one hour about 50 miles off the Nicaraguan coast, so I'm not putting anything past the system.
Or Alma rises from the grave?
So, just what will they name it if it develops?
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