Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index
Tampa, it looks that way. Also heading for South America as well LOL
Kman, actually steering flow keeps it over water and it moving WNW. Bears alot of watching IMO.
Hi everyone!
Wishcasting for rain in East Lake Palm Harbor, FL.
Go Eagles, MasterForecaster!
Maybe we can wishcast a superbowl this year...
I always understood the steering flow for waves to be the low level Easterly flow, essentially due West. Given its current position I would be surprised if it were to enter the Caribbean . Perhaps the Northern end of the wave might but I would expect most of the energy to go ashore on the coast down there.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 8N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N16W TO 4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM 9N17W TO 7N22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-16W.
Be back later
Yep, the models can be right, but every time I look at the models and see a consensus on something I get an expectation that something will form and it drives me crazy lol. I much rather prefer watching models after something forms rather than before lol
It had Alma forming..days before it happened...although some had it forming on the Atlantic side.....
Got tired of being called "geek" for short, did you? lol.
Morning all.
I have located the low center myself, writting the "L".
Regards from Spain.
I see we have Invest 90L, What i have observed is the fact that land interaction is NOT really taking a toll on this disturbance...It actually seems to still be organizing further despite it's land interaction....This could be due to it taking in moisture from both sides of the Yucatan and living off of it....I would not be surprised to see a Tropical Depression declared while it is still over land. Organization is at or very near depression status.
so in other words IKE, the models had a gender conflict lmao
No its a boy....No its a girl....No its a boy....No its a girl
lol
Yeah...Alma's trying to have a sex change now....
Including Intermediates...
CA, I doubt it will be declared a TD overland, but my guess is that it may have briefly been a TD before landfall...we have to watch it in the BoC. Land has taken a toll on the convection of the system but the overall structure is intact, but then again its only been over land for about 2 hours or so.
Action: | Ignore User
I doubt it will to but i wouldnt be surprised.
Stormkat, SSTs won't really be any warming in 7 days than they are now. SSTs in the Northern Gulf are barely 26 degrees C and are even less off the Florida Panhandle.
Extreme...they've warmed up at least 3 degrees in the last 2-4 weeks.....
Panama City, FL 82.0 °F
Apalachicola, FL 84.0 °F
Grand Isle, LA 82.9 °F
Can someone post a link to where there is current data?
JPL/NASA ftp site only has data through day-of-year 148 (today is 152)
ROFLTD (Rolls over floor laughing then dies)
I thought 90l was formed from the ENERGY of Alma not the actual structure.
Isn't Alma back in the epac as that tiny blob
Ike the other thing to consider is that the models had alma forming on the atlantic side, maybe this is what the models were saying.
Could be.
IKE, thanks for posting those temps. I didn't realize they were at that level quite yet. The one SST map I used showed only 24-25 degree SSTs off the coast of part of the Panhandle.
(like in 2004...oh please, no).
Nature has a way of making up for imbalances.
Of course, everyone talks about '05 being such a bad year, but in Central Florida, we had two hurricanes within two weeks and can't remember when the third came around, maybe three or four weeks later.
Of course we had tons of rain then, starting in August, and before it was dry like this. Just an observation.
12.5km QuikSCAT Winds
Thats nothing new...been there for a good while now.
===========================================
If 90L was still over water it would be Td 01...impressive
SST does have a diurnal cycle of about 3 degrees F on the shallow, weak current, continental shelf areas. Some of the SST sources do not capture this. The best way to see it is to go historical with some hourly buoy readings.
Oh it certainly wouldn't surprise me CA.
IKE, thanks for posting those temps. I didn't realize they were at that level quite yet. The one SST map I used showed only 24-25 degree SSTs off the coast of part of the Panhandle
Those are right at the coast...it is slightly cooler out in the gulf a few miles....upper 70's....200 miles out it's in the low 80's too.
1311 Drak,
Thats nothing new...been there for a good while now.
lol. I was just posting what I saw. I didn't see that last night so....
1336. atmoaggie
12.5km QuikSCAT Winds
Thanks. Must be the storm-centered data generation software that is broken.
A good upper level anticyclone is aloft, vertically stacked with the mid level rotation of the coast of Africa. In other words the wave is establishing an outflow aloft.
Sounds like ur expecting development? Not disagreeing with u but I thought I was the only seeing those observations.
Viewing: 1301 - 1351
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index