Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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The local Mets ususally report what has been reported.....they report alot of stuff thats hours old.
Sad but true I guess, Tampa.
"Long term...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) still show a rather strong shortwave trough
moving across The Rockies Wednesday into Wednesday night before
moving east to northeast across the plains Thursday into Thursday
night. Deep tropical moisture in enhanced southeast flow is still
forecast to surge out of the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of
Mexico...but the deeper moisture is delayed in its arrival to the
north central Gulf Coast...now not reaching our area until next
Saturday night or Sunday. Have cut back on some of the rain
chances in the day 7 to 8 periods."
have fun.
Taz-Proximity to land should keep it from becoming a hurricane...it also wouldn't have much time as once it emerges from the BoC it would have to re-organize before it could even become a TS.
1199. IKE 8:25 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
1196....their just not paying close enough attention to what's actually happening...not doing their job, really.
i think that is a bit harsh. these people are reading copy that is 3 to 4 hours old.
trust me... they do not have their own in house wunderground geek staring at every 3 minute update on the live satellites and making analysis calls.
Harsh? GS...I don't understand you sometimes. As far as reading copy...just look at a visible satellite. Even at idiot like me can see that it's over land.
Arthur ben Alma to be born tonight?
The Hurricane Expo at MOSI starts today at 10. This is a great time to speak to mets and you get a lot of free stuff. I suggest if you live in Tampa to go.
Iam attending the one down here in south florida!Look forward on meeting again with max mayfield and bryan norcross.Bill Read will also be attending.
1196....their just not paying close enough attention to what's actually happening...not doing their job, really.
i think that is a bit harsh. these people are reading copy that is 3 to 4 hours old.
trust me... they do not have their own in house wunderground geek staring at every 3 minute update on the live satellites and making analysis calls.
Why? Every second they're not on the air they should be checking up with whats going on in the tropics. Isn't that their job?
Yeah...ok.
Hi guys,
I'm new here and just wanted to introduce myself. I'm just a huge weather nut and I have been reading this blog for about a year and a half . . .
I was curious if you guys all have degrees in Meteorology?
How often have u been reading? By now even a casual reader would know the answer to this question . . . there've been so many fights in here about it. . . . LOL
As well they should...same with me...my health is more of an issue...but, I enjoy following the tropics....that's why the other folks are on here.
trust me... they do not have their own in house wunderground geek staring at every 3 minute update on the live satellites and making analysis calls.
They should realize there was a TD right infront of there eyes.
AMEN!
I will be back shortly.
Tracking the Eye
Eye of the Storm
They are good if you willing to buy a licence. I have the former.
I have the latter. It's not bad for the price, and, while it doesn't update CPac,WPac, SPac, or Ind storms, it does allow you to track them manually.
They are some others out there
i think we have a rainmaker on our hands and thats it.now down the road i see something interesting developing in the nw caribbean that really bears watching.....i think this could threaten the gulf coast sometime late next weekend.....all the ingredients are there...stormkat
Some of the models are hinting at that.....
I agree 90L has some impressive clouds with it, but unless the COC can get all the way out into the BOC, I don't think it will make it all the way to TS again. I also don't want to imagine how deep it may have gotten if it wasn't over land as much as it has been. That's a powerful little circulation centre there.
On the tropical waves coming off the African coast, I seem to recall quite a number of similarly, or even more, impressive waves early in the season last year as well. However, last year the CAtl conditions remained so unfavorable that even as far down the alphabet as Karen systems just couldn't survive. The interesting question for this year is whether the shear and ULLs etc will relent early in the season so that these waves can survive and even thrive on the crossing. If so, that prediction of 15/8/4 could become a reality.
TTYL
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