Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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I am new here as well but I took have been lurking in the shadows for some time. My son is planning to go to either York U. or Dalhousie for Atmospheric sciences. I find the info and conversations here very informative.
THIS one too.
This one is interesting as well. Looks like the ridge may be breaking down sooner than expected.
"Long term...
the back door front will be washing out over the forecast area at
the beginning of the period Monday night warranting slight chance probability of precipitation.
Its remnants will lift east of the area by Tuesday. The remainder of the
forecast period will feature deep layer ridging across the region
with the surface ridge axis near or just S of the Gulf Coast. Slight
chance probability of precipitation for mainly afternoon convection will be carried through
the period. Temperatures will remain 3-5 degrees above normal. Moisture
will begin surging northward from the tropics across the eastern Gulf and Florida
Peninsula on Friday and we will show increasing cloudiness for that
day. Looking ahead to next Sat, we could be looking a tropical low
just north of the Yucatan. This increased confidence that cloud cover
and rain chances will increase into that weekend."
U mean cape verdes?
I am so sorry; you are correct..I spent the entire day (took the day off) with a friend on the beach near Destin and must have gone through 15 assorted "beverages", am hung-over, and sunburned to a crisp this AM......Time for me to go right now (and get some coffee and recover)....Will only say this; the Gulf waters around Destin are crystal clear and beautiful right now, temps are just perfect for swimming (confortably cool to the touch), and high pressure in dominating in the Northern Gulf right.........Will see all later to tommorow......WW
Can anyone recommend good software for tracking tropical storms? or just rely on what's on the Net? I mean I must have a hundred weather sites bookmarked.
Tracking the Eye
Eye of the Storm
They are good if you willing to buy a licsence. I have the former.
They are some others out there
1161. TheCaneWhisperer 8:42 AM EDT on May 31, 2008 Just analyizing what I see and stating facts WMW #1154.
Lol...My comment above was not directed at you at all...It is my same feeling (wishcastng aside) that this may end up as a very active season.......
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 88.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 86.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Type these two stations in Wunderground search box at the top of this page for current weather near the center.
MZBZ - BELIZE, Belize
MMCM - CHETUMAL, Mexico
I have been lurking on this site for 2+ yrs. I appreciate all I can learn about hurricanes and the useful links that you guys provide. I think the more opinions the better, since you can't always predict what these storms will do. Thanks for all the links, especially to Patrap, I find his amusing sometimes and learned to go to youtube to get an idea of some damage these storms do.
I live in FL and so I like to evacuate early if I know one's coming. I have a B.A. in Elementary Ed, decided not to do that I work in a mail room at a university and know some marine scientists and grad students in Remote Sensing.
Thanks again,
Morningmisty : )
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 0 185N 887W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 12 192N 898W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 24 195N 911W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 36 195N 922W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 48 193N 936W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 60 193N 946W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 72 193N 950W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 84 197N 955W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 96 206N 960W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 108 211N 966W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 120 210N 974W
Invest 90L has also made landfall near the Mexico - Belize border but I imagine it would have another shot at development once it enters the BOC.
"Guidance is advertising more energy diving south over the northern
Continental U.S.......but the upper high over Texas/mex hangs tough...deflecting
it well north of the southeastern Continental U.S.. its middle week on that the
range of solutions diverge. Guidance pretty much agrees with a system
developing over/near the Yucatan (remnants of alma?)...moving
northward (either northwest according to the European model (ecmwf) or NE according to the
gfs). Ensembles show a small range in the end result with respect to
precipitation chances the latter two days of the forecast...but even
so...the wettest solution still is only a chance. Have stuck with the
op GFS for now...favoring a wait and see attitude at this time.".....
I don't think it's 90L....I think it's another system.
That's almost on the Mexican coast......
Looks like the NHC has 90L moving kind of NWish. Should emerge into the Bay of Campeche.
I posted my thoughts on that on my blog - I am expecting a NW motion in 48 hrs....afterwhich I am watching a ridge that is expected to build over Mexico/Southern central Plains. Also this cud pull a cindy - not trackwise - rather the center may jump and reform over water. Just have to watch and see.
Yeah, that model has it going almost due west across the BOC.
while reading back I saw a couple of new posters who asked questions or just wanted to be acknowledge. Welcome aboard!Caffinehog, morning isty, horsebootz, Another one said he had been lurking since 2003? well #053 Caffinehog, the blogs didn't start until April 2005 so you may have been getting weather info from here but not lurking on any of the blogs.
Another new one #1151 horseboutz,said her son was going to college somewhere and wanted some of you students to give her some advised. We have several Met grads here on the blogs and some are still in school.... hopefully they will answer your question later. #11168 Morningmisty, welcome and HI!
So to the oldies (including me) and the newbies, Welcome one and all, I think it is going to be an active and interesting season.
Keep the info flowing, I lurk when I can at work and cannot post.
Will check in later.
Gams
1175. IKE
Yeah, that model has it going almost due west across the BOC.
This may wind up being the "A" storm in the Atlantic after all...if it can get back over water.
Which one is it?
Local news is saying that 90L this isn't over Mexico yet. On this site it shows the center of 90L well inland over Mexico.
Which one is it?
It's on land..you can see it on the visible...456 confirmed it with weather observations.
Local news is saying that 90L this isn't over Mexico yet. On this site it shows the center of 90L well inland over Mexico.
Which one is it?
IKE- It's on land..you can see it on the visible...456 confirmed it with weather observations.
Thats what I though too lol but for some reason my Local channel 10 thinks it's still over water and could be a tropical depression before making landfall. What the hell.
Is there a way to contact local met's and ask them if they're on drugs?
You are the BEST ! Thank you very much.
Gamma
CLP5 is a climatological model of where the system would go according to climatology.
The local Mets ususally report what has been reported.....they report alot of stuff thats hours old.
Sad but true I guess, Tampa.
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