Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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There are rain showers in the vicinity of where it predicted a system, and further more; there is an actual invest where it showed development for so long.
Will be interesting to see how it performs the rest of the season!
738. Weather456 3:35 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
The NHC has confirm the wave near the coast of Africa.
Where is that?
read post 746
90L is about to make landfall right now in Belize
No its still of-shore west of Roatan, Honduras. At 8:00PM EDT the circulation center was 50 miles east of Belize moving at 3mph.
Based upon that data, it would mean it will take another 12 hours until landfall.
Good night all.
Find that link as well as many other great tropical and weather tracking sites.
90L has it own Floater now
I had just checked it right before you posted that, and it was black.
(I looked at the vis) LOL
But check the Infrared Sat Loops, and look at the upper level winds.
I seem to be in a "doldrum" for the past 3 days.
East of me, UL wind is southerly, west of me, UL wind is northwesterly. Above me, nada.
Your interpretation ?
So all in all I give the GFS a plus on this one.
I give the GFS it's props too lol. It did well with forecasting for the system to come of shore Honduras and hang out for a bit w/some organization.
huh?
huh?
just forget it lol. I edited my post to say nevermind because I saw your post after I posted. You get it?
Here's an example of the use of satellite imagery to track waves...notice how the cloud line (follow the arrows) form an inverted v pattern (upside-down v). This wave has a large wave-span or wave length.
456, isn't this that same wave that you mentioned here this morning? I thought so! Good call! They're just coming more regularly for something not to pop.
No doubt Drak. I'll buy it a beer next time I see it...lol
We can't have the GFS drunk. We need it for the rest of the season and besides the GFS is like the NHC's second child.
Stay safe up there, extreme!
Hopefully everything should be okay. They just canceled the one tornado warning and my mets on TV said that the tornado threat for the rest of the night is minimal and the main threat is just some hail and damaging winds.
One beer is not going to turn it into the CMC or anything!
Yeah
MLC,
yeah but I posted this on my blog on tuesday....
The last set of areas are across West Africa...two clearly evident tropical waves lie along 12W south of 13N and 11E south of 13N. Showers have diminish along the wave closest to the coast but the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have been hinting the development of a tropical cyclone around Saturday/Sunday when either of these waves emerges.
Source
758. Pottery, it keeps eeking northwards! It's coming. Total Precipital Water seems to be getting more saturated.
765. lmao
One beer is not going to turn it into the CMC or anything!
The GFS gets tipsy easy especially after 190hr+ everything just explodes.
Eumetsat MPE
Eumetsat Visible imagery
Cannot be long now, before the ITCZ gets here.
I would not be at all surprised for this to make TD just before landfall if this keeps up all night. Exactly what happened with Alma.
765. lmao
One beer is not going to turn it into the CMC or anything!
My first post this year, thanks for the laugh!! I needed that. Looks like the season is on...
how much time till landfall, or are we there?
Drak, I didn't think you were a fan of EUMETSAT.
I am when waves have a good circulation. Its very clear on that imagery and I can speed it up too. As you know, I do favor RAMSDIS imagery but I can't access the imagery so I have to make with what I have.
E Atl-Eumetsat
Zoom on any region-GHCC
And best detail Nemoc Rota and NRL Monteray
Just my two cent though!
And nice post number!
Above the images. Gives you several options for how to view it as well.
Nemoc ROTA has animations.
Above the images. Gives you several options for how to view it as well.
The time intervals are too wide for me.
As far as fastest updating and shortest interval, GHCC is it. Personally my favorite.
Drak, what kind of trouble are you having with RAMSDIS?
I can't access the animations. They restricted it for their personnel.
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