Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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Steering could take 90L slightly north/wnw a bit, before ultimately running west into the Yucatan. Whatever it does, surely it won't last very long. Strong easterlies will help drive it into the coast and with the strong high pressure to its north there's not much place left for it to go.
The Tropical waves that we were looking at over the past few days have not been able to hold up and produce any significant weather.
I guess its still May............
Google Map
WU Station in Belize - Astrum Helicopters
GOES-12 Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Link
So I wanted to pop in and invite anyone who sometimes needs to engage the tropics on a kinder, more patient blog, to come on over to:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/show.html
Questions from beginners are encouraged, and folks aren't sterotyped.
That said, Doc Masters has a Super-Great Blog here,
and I hope folks won't let the trolls wreck it.
As the saying goes:
Never wrestle with a pig,
Because you both get dirty
And the pig likes it.
;~)
It was hard to breathe here today, with the smoke.
Actually heard two rumbles of thunder out to the west in the Gulf of Paria, but.....
Pottery, good to see you my friend. Stay safe this year my friend! :)
629. Positive SOI values reinforce nina or neutral ENSO conditions, right Drak?
Right..
Even Early.
june 1st is sunday
Good to see you again too.
I will certainly try to stay safe, and trust that you will do the same.
Enjoy the Season !
Good to see you out and about thel!
Finally have a little time off work. Starting new job at the end of the month was a bad idea! lol
See the pressure in Belize?? 1002.9mb.
All is well?
I believe the Gulf is protected by a big H this time. It could sneak into the BOC I suppose.
678. Right, TS. At least there's a wet environment there, now.
Sucks man, LOL
Junkie, glad to hear you got a job sorted. I have decided to start my own business, wish me luck! LOL
Congrats thel! Shoot me an email sometime and let me know what you are doing.
690. Nice, Drak.
696. SJ, you building "Dreamliners" in your sleep? ;p
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