Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Yes Pat, thanks. I just wanted to make sure I was looking at what I thought I was. :)

I doubt that very much. There is a huge amount of dry air (SAL), across the entire Atlantic ocean.

True. African dust outbreaks are quite common during the Spring and even early summer (June and July).

Its a model that all.
Dont give anything any credence till May at least.
And the season Never Starts that far east in the Atlantic.
Most early invest form in the BOC, Southern GOM, or Caribbean.
Models ..especially long range ones..are not Gospel.

Well said. Actually, I'd think an invest would be more likely to form in the subtropical Atlantic than anywhere else at this time of year. I believe the Category 2 hurricane of March 1908 that struck the Leeward Islands originated north of the islands in the subtropical Atlantic.

And yeah, models definitely aren't gospel. I wouldn't worry about any of this until around May 15.

Happy Easter everyone! The weather looks great along much of the eastern seaboard and the southwest.

Hi, first time poster, not new to the site, I have been watching from 2005.

Is this year going to be a La Nina, El Nino, or ENSO?

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The upper flow across the Gulf has become northwesterly between a weak trough along 85W and a broad ridge over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This flow is relatively dry and confluent in nature providing for stable conditions in the mid-upper levels across Mexico, the Southern United States and the Gulf west of 85W. At the surface, observations through 1500 UTC indicated a weak frontal boundary lies across the Northern Gulf from the Big Ben area of Florida to the Texas Mexican border. This feature remains absent of significant shower activity due to the stable environment it is embedded in...shallow clouds exist instead. Another more define frontal trough boundary extends from near 23N/90W across the Southern Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers are within 60 nmi of the front/trough over the Gulf and within 200 nmi over Florida.

The surface flow over the Gulf this afternoon is being maintained by a strong 1035 mb high over the Upper Plains. QuikSCAT, surface observations and DMSP SSM/I Microwave Imagery revealed northeast winds of 10-15 knots over the eastern Gulf, increasing to 20 knots in the Central and Western Gulf. Northeasterly swells over the entire Gulf at 1-2 ft over the Eastern part, increasing to 5-6 ft over open waters of the Central Gulf, then subsiding to 3-4 ft over the Western Gulf, mainly along the coast of Mexico, Texas and Louisiana.

A band of overcast cloudiness and showers continues across the Southern Florida, across the extreme Northern Bahamas to beyond 30N/70W. Wind shifts reported by marine stations indicated the presence of a frontal boundary and this further supported by frontal rope structures at the leading edge of the cloud band. Meanwhile, a well define high is analyzed 1025 mb at 31N/49W based on visible imagery and surface analysis (See Below). Patches of broken cloudiness is seen rotating around the flow of the high from 40W to 70W south of 27N. Fair weather is noted elsewhere.

by W456

Central Subtropics



Analysed surface flow based on the motion of cloud elements

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A sharp upper trough is digging across the Western Caribbean along 85W to 8N. Meanwhile, the western flank of an upper ridge dominates the remainder of the area east of the trough. The southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow between these two features is advecting scattered cirrus streamers over the basin from 83W to 60W. Meanwhile, surface high pressure north of our region is maintaining 20 knot tradewind flow east of 80W decreasing to below 10 knots west of 80W, with the highest trades along the South American Coast near 30 knots. These trades will bring patches of moisture into the region, causing few passing showers mainly across the Northern Caribbean. Otherwise, fair weather dominates. Seas have substantially subsided to 3-4 ft over the Eastern Caribbean shores, increasing to 6-8 ft over the open Caribbean Sea to 80W and subside once more to 3-4 ft beyond. The highest seas are 10 ft right along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean, where the pressure gradient has tighten between the subtropical ridge and the climatological heat low over Colombia.

by W456

I was just about to comment that the Low didnt push the front southward as it passed, maybe a new low is forming to the west, or yesterdays low hasnt moved much. We have very unstable conditions here on the east coast.

I had 6 inches of rain yesterday/this morning.

thundershowers still occurring over s fla

hey all. how can i send the doc pics?
i have some awesome pictures from the impressive waves brought to Puerto Rico from a winter storm in the north atlantic.
would love to share them .

Storms developing here on East Coast. Got a good photo of how dark and low those clouds are hanging.

by the way dos any one see any thing missing???

366. benirica 1:42 PM AST on March 23, 2008
hey all. how can i send the doc pics?
i have some awesome pictures from the impressive waves brought to Puerto Rico from a winter storm in the north atlantic.
would love to share them .

Look in the upper right hand corner of the blog under About JeffMasters.....click on Contact This Blog's Aurthor. This will then send you to wunder email page so you can send him the links to the images or web page(s) where the images are located via wunder email.

heavy storms sse of lake o offshore miami and north of there fla 66 dbz max some rotation detected

I was taking pics a few minutes ago, and I noticed that the low level clouds were moving westward. That means a seabreeze is setting up. That could add fuel to the fire, and even promote rotation in stronger storms.

One silver lining: Lake Lanier, GA flood plain got over 2 inches of rain

showers thunder diminishing movin out clearing shortly with breezy somewhat cooler conditions s se fla

359. weatherfromFlorida 11:42 AM EDT
Hi, first time poster, not new to the site, I have been watching from 2005.

Is this year going to be a La Nina, El Nino, or ENSO?

Welcome to the blog weatherfromflorida. ENSO = ElNino Southern Oscillation, It's comprised of the extremes of ELNino, and LaNina, and the neutral conditions inbetween.

Here's an explanation (others abound)& an update.
ENSO

ENSO Update

is this the last cold front set up????

I hope so. I'm sick of the cold.

Good evening everyone! How are the tropics looking? Any new updates?

That pic was funny in a weird way, STL. Heh.

Hope you all had a great Easter Weekend.
I didn't hear about the south Florida flooding many of you seem to be talking about, but I was having a great vacation all week at a water management conference.

Good Morning Folks.......A little cooler weather over the next few days for the SE/North Florida as some dry/cold air pushes in but it should be nice for the next week....Also, the Bermuda High will start to develop and slide into it's Springtime position off the coast; who knows where it will be during the peak of Hurricane Season but where it "parks" over the next two months will be a factor in early season predictions as far as potential CONUS threats......(Same predicitons last year which forcasted a dire situation for the Gulf/Florida which, thankfully, never materialized)........You just never know and I am no fan of long-term predictions when it comes to H season....

Michael, you should see this:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=160831

GM all,still waiting for a little preview of spring here in New England,but do see anything for the forseeable future,hope everyone is safe in the flood areas of the Mississippi

Good Morning from 11n 61w.
Looking at the Sat. Images and the water vapour loops today, and noting some un-seasonal equatorial moisture in the mid/low altitudes from 30w to 55 w or thereabouts.
Also, no sign of Sahara dust as yet and this is good/bad. By this time last year the dust was thick, and I suggested a "boo" Atlantic Hurricane season. Came to pass too. The 2 storms that became major Hurricanes last year only got going when they passed 60 w, out of the influence of the SAL.
The current set up could of course change tomorow, and other things also apply.
In the meantime, I'm saying that if we dont see an increase in SAL before June, I would expect that this year the Tropical Atlantic could become a most interesting area ................

Morning All!

We got that much anticipated rain Storm W. A little more than expected as well, smiles all around. Good day to ya.

Good morning

Broward County seemed to get the most out of this storm SW. Over 5" on Saturday alone and tons more yesterday.

Storm you only got .39 from all that. It topped my rain guage off (roughly 6 inches) The heaviest rain was yesterday around 7 a.m or so. I think the Lake got some good rain.

The everglades south of the lake need water too and they did get plenty of rain. Still as it gets hotter, and sun angle increases Lake O will drop faster into spring.

Tropical Cyclone 26S

Issued 1600 UTC Mon 24 Mar 2008

Tropical cyclone 26S is located near 13.3S-103.2E drifting southeastward. Estimated surface winds are near 35 knots and estimated minimum central pressure is at 997 millibars. Wind shear is northeasterly at 20 knots and sea surface temperatures are 28C.

The center of 26S was determined using QuikSCAT, microwave imagery, total precipitable water measurements, 850 mb vorticity and short-wave infrared imagery. Surface winds and pressure were estimated using QuikSCAT which showed a few uncontaminated wind barbs of 35 knots and dvorak intensity techniques which showed a 0.40 cloud band which corresponds to CI 2.5, 35 knots and 997 mb. Recent MSAT infrared imagery showed the cyclone associated with very cold convection with the low level circulation on the eastern edge of the convection as seen in microwave imagery due to 20 knots of northeasterly wind shear. However, there are signs that vertical wind shear is decreasing over the system as the cold cloud cover has become more symmetrical and organized near the LLCC, thus intensity maybe higher than 35 knots. Furthermore, there is a weak outflow vent to the south of the system that should aid in development. Currently, both the GFS and CMC take the system towards the southeast under the influence of a weak ridge induced by the passage of mid-latitude trough; but the GFS weakens the system by Thursday, while the CMC shows a much more significant tropical cyclone nearing the coast of Northwestern Australia, that same time. My thinking is that the cyclone should intensify to a moderate tropical cyclone based on favorable conditions but not as intense as the CMC forecast.

by W456



00Z CMC Forecast Valid 84 hrs



00Z GFS

Shortwave Infrared Imagery with QuikSCAT winds and synoptic observations from buoy and ships overlaid. Some of the tools used for finding position and intensity.



An earlier microwave overpass by TRMM

Tropical cyclone (tc) 26s located approximately 360 nm east of the
Cocos Islands, has tracked southeastward at 04 knots over the past 06
hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts improved convect-
ive banding and consolidation over the past 12 hours. A 240822z trmm
37ghz image and a 241042z AMSU image depict a well-defined low-
level circulation center (LLCC) positioned slightly east of a
developing CDO feature. Animated water vapor imagery shows good
poleward outflow ahead of a midlatitude trough southwest of the
system and a developing anticyclone over the center. Upper level
analysis indicates a favorable environment for further development
with weak to moderate vertical wind shear and high ocean heat
content. The current intensity is based on the high end of Dvorak
estimates of 30-35 knots. Tc 26s is forecast to track increasingly
southward under the steering influence of the low to mid-level
subtropical ridge located east of the system. The steering ridge
is expected to remain relatively weak as the system consolidates,
therefore, track speeds are slow through the period. This forecast
is slightly faster and west of the consensus due to poor initial-
ization of the gfni tracker and initial erroneous equatorward track.
Tc 26s is expected to intensify at a 10-15 knot per day rate due
to favorable outflow and SST. This warning supersedes and cancels
ref a, navpacmetoccen 240221z Mar 08 tropical cyclone formation
alert (wtxs21 pgtw 240230). Maximum significant wave height at
241200z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 250300z and 251500z.