Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Look at all that moisture! More than 1.5 inches of rain expected in some parts of South Florida.

Anyone there? Starting to look very ominous here. How you hanging in there JFV? Has the flooding started to get very bad?

...much water. Good thing Florida very porous.

Nothing severe but its coming down pretty good thats for sure.Moderate to Heavy Rainfall.

In the radar link provided by Adrian, it appears like a bow-echo has formed just north of Key West. If any severe weather does develop in South Florida from this system, it will be once the surface low moves onland and interacts with the warm front.

JFV, not much has happened thus far. That intense rainfall you guys have been receiving seems to be moving northward at a snail's pace causing some amazing training to occur. Once those rains reach here, which will take only about another 10 to 15 minutes, then I'll finally have some action to report. Stay safe JFV.
Remember, turn around-don't drown!!!

Appears like the surface low has just begun making it overland as I have noticed quite an eastward surge in precipitation on radar. Looks like the heavy rains have only just begun here in Cooper City. Anyone else notice this on radar? Something else to point out; on satellite imagery it seems like the convection continues to build back on itself out in the GOM as it continues to move eastward into Southern Florida. Not like it already hasn't happened, but someone could really get some flooding rains from training. Not looking very good now and it shows no signs of slowing down or weakening anytime soon.

I'm in the teeny hole in the rainfall in Palm Beach Co. The only spot in 100+ miles that's not getting poured on. That won't last though.

On radar, it appears that I should brace for several hours with steady moderate to heavy rainfall upcoming. This will be only the second time this entire year where I'll have rain lasting for more than 15 minutes at a time. Very excited right now.

CC, I don't think that's the low moving onshore. Looks more like the low is strengthening and the mid and upper level winds are carrying the Precip northeastward. If the Low was moving onshore, the warm front would be moving northward much faster. It is still hanging in the keys indicating the low is still fairly far out in the GOM

I have been saying this since early Jan - this winter/spring are going agaist all logic. Here we are in a Strong La Nina and it we are getting rain every 3-5 here in West Central Fl. Right now we have a nice steady rain shield covering the entire area. Make no sense to me at all but I'll take the rain.

You're right Ivansrvivr. Made a mistake there.

I'M FROM INDIANA, WHAT WILL THIS RAIN TO TO EASE THE ISSUES AT Lake Okeechobee?

I should have raked the yard yesterday so that the rain could penetrate fully into the ground. I have so many leaves on my yard that I don't know how much rain it will penetrate through the ground.

1.5 inches will hopefully bring much needed water to Lake Okeechobee. However; most of the heavy rain is currently to the south and west of Miami.

HUH?

South FL rain totals so far.

TerraNova, Lake Okeechobee is in South-Central Florida. You're thinking about Lake Ponchitrain right now.

trunkmonkey- If you could rephrase your question into some form of understandable English then someone will answer you lol. I have no idea what the hell that was supposed to mean

THANK YOU CCHSWEATHERMAN

Very little I'm afraid. We average nearly 60 inches per year here. We depend on the summer rains. This is the "dry season" and from now thru June it may not rain another drop. Last summer, all the rains fell where it wouldn't drain into the lake. Anything helps, but what is 3-5 inches compared to the 40-60 that falls in the summer and fall. We're honestly very lucky we're getting this rain.

trunkmonkey, I assume you meant "to do", that's ok :-)

... And to answer you, hopefully a lot.

with the low lake levels at Lake Okeechobee, will this rain have an inpact of filling the lake back up?

3-5 inches over Lake O and the Kissimmee valley to it's north will raise the lake half an inch

trunkmonkey- Lake O is a huge lake, any rain is better than no rain. But it will take more then a biblical amount event to fill it up in one rain event.

For Reference and Linkage;
Severe Weather Text Page
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LOL I know I changed it right after I posted it. These lakes get me confused sometimes.

The lake while huge, but it has shrunk to less than 2/3rds it's normal size. When the level rises now, it goes out as much as up.

CC, this rain will soak in just fine.

Just like Ivansrvivr said; a half inch, but Lake O is significantly lower than just by half an inch. Infact it is currently at 10.17ft and average is 14.09ft . But again, 1/2 inch will be better then 0.

u need a hurricane to fill that lake in one shot

teardrops won't do. =)

The lake will also drop dramatically as we move into spring and temps heat up but the humidity is still low. Sun angle will also evap more water out of the lake as we move into spring so it needs every drop it can get.

HERE ARE SOME YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS...AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR 2007 INTO 2008 AND THE 14 MONTH PERIOD
COVERING FROM JANUARY 1, 2007 TO MARCH 19, 2008.
NOAA Hydro Link Link

AIRPORTS 14 MONTH : 14 MONTH : DRY : DRY TOTALS DEPARTURES
TOTALS DEPARTURES SEASON SEASON
07-08 TOTAL 07-08 DEP.

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 71.29 : 7.49 : 8.90 : -2.18
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 69.44 : -3.67 : 16.25 : 1.73
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 75.46 : 5.33 : 14.54 : -2.63
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 37.73 : -19.73 : 3.67 : -5.37

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 46.45 : -9.74 : 4.98 : -3.58
DEVILS GARDEN : 40.24 : -10.91 : 6.67 : -3.19
CLEWISTON : 40.71 : -9.97 : 9.13 : -1.80
BELLE GLADE : 53.52 : -9.08 : 7.14 : -0.49
MOORE HAVEN LOCK : 34.98 : -18.56 : 9.51 : -1.56
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 48.35 : -6.69 : 6.73 : -3.04
MIAMI BEACH : 73.07 : 13.64 : 12.06 : 0.36

AS A RESULT...GLADES COUNTY REMAINS IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITION
(D3). THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY...ALONG WITH
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA REMAIN IN A SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS
(D2)...WHILE THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY REMAINS IN A MODERATE
DROUGHT STATUS (D1). MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY HAVE BEEN PUT INTO A MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS (D1)...WHILE
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS AND METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY REMAIN
IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY STATUS (D0). THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES WERE NOT IN A DROUGHT STATUS.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

WELLS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS ARE AT THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT
LEVEL...WHILE THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WERE 10 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW
NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WELLS IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS ARE AT ADEQUATE LEVELS OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ROSE
ABOUT 2 TENTHS OF A FOOT TO AROUND 10.2 FEET DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF MARCH. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 4 FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

A hurricane isn't going to do much for the lake. Remember the SFLWMD will drain the canal system that the lake feeds before a tropical system. What we need is a good rainy season with lots of afternoon thunderstorms.

The storms north of Key West have been weakening. Max dBZ has dropped from 57 to 52 in the last few images. The coverage of the lighter rain; however, has expanded considerably.

That's alot of moderate to major flooding


VALLEY PARK, Mo. (AP) — Residents in this community along the Meramec River are crossing their fingers that the town's new earthen levee, built to withstand a 100-year flood, will pass its first big test.

The surging Meramec was expected to crest at a record 40 feet on Saturday — 24 feet above flood stage.

Flood-weary residents in Missouri, Arkansas and Ohio fought to save their homes Friday after heavy rainstorms pushed swollen rivers out of their banks, and a fresh snowstorm blew through parts of the Upper Midwest, canceling flights and some Good Friday services.

In southern Missouri, several breached levees released floodwaters that forced authorities to evacuate towns west of Cape Girardeau. At least 200 homes and 13 businesses have been evacuated in Cape Girardeau County, said emergency management director Dick Knaup.

At least 70 Missouri counties have reported flooding this week.

Patrap showed perfectly why the lake is so low. All the rain fell on the East Coast last summer and very little went inland (most unusual) We got poured on everyday over here but none made it to the kissimmee valley or Lake O. This is the only place in the world where it can rain everyday but youre still in a drought.

yeah, so it won't flood. After the 1928 hurricane, they built that dam.

Terra, that is the norm here. Those storms used up the heat that they were feeding on and are now weakening. It is possible for more to re-fire once the old ones die off.

The Missouri Event continues...and is very bad still as Skyepony pointed out.
Forecasts for Missouri — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather Link

Storm total on the left, base reflectivity on the right.

Terra, look at the sat of the GOM. There is more convection firing to the west of what you see on radar.

Up until the TX last year I can't really remember much flooding like this. We're talking 20 ' above flood stage in some places.

Thanks Ivansrvivr, I'm not as familiar with FL storms as I am with supercell activity farther north. It must be the tropical moisture and today the warm air advection from the south is strong; correct?

Having seen what storm surge does on the Gulf coast, it is very saddening seeing flood damage. I'd take wind over surge/flood anyday.

Looks like a Spring as in 97 maybe Skyepony.
They may have to Open the Bonnett Carre Spillway above US if the trend continues.



High river puts city on alert
Thursday March 20, 2008, 9:06 PMStory: Link