Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

200. JFV 12:35 PM EDT on March 22, 2008
Hey Weatherman, would your website enter some kind or type of emergency mode; if there ever were a major hurricane headed directly towards South Florida?

Of course, JFV. I'll be working my site, making constant emails, and on the phone quite often. Always looking out for everyone.

I miss Bonedog.....

The warm MDO waters have been absent the last few years. (I believe due to the "hyperactive 04 and 05 seasons) This may be the year they return. I know most forecasters and models arent expecting El Nino conditions anytime soon but look at the Pacific. Warm anomalies are eating away at the current La Nina from both ends and from below. While I do think El Nino conditions are possible by the end of the season, I don't think they will occur anywhere near soon enough to have a significant impact on this years' Atlantic Hurricane season. I think it will be effectively Nina to Neutral this season.
If you look at all the next season forecasts they are all shots in the dark. Nobody predicted last season right before it started. Were all just guessing. It's not much different than filling out your Brackets for college basketball. As the season nears there will be more guesses and predictions. Lets just hope that there's no loss of life or property this season.

Yes JFV. Why?

JFV, by the time the season starts there will 30-40times the current traffic on this blog daily. There will be so much traffic here you will have more resources than you could ever imagine.

Looks like a warm front has formed out ahead of the low. This will bring rain up past Tampa Link

Hey folks for florida radars use my page you cant go wrong ive added many sites that will be of great use during days like today.SEE HERE

Hurricane... great site, but the link for the tampa/ruskin radar is wrong. It links to the tallahassee radar instead.

Re: 201

About the SSTs, I was saying that warmer waters generally mean storms which form have more fuel to become - and remain - major hurricanes, which makes landfall at those higher strengths possible. So far, temps haven't been anomalously warm across the bulk of the tropical ATL, so we may not have to worry about deep pools of warm water building up.

Unfortunately, as the past has proven numerous times, it only takes one strike to ruin a summer . . .

dbz approaching 60 63 in se fla mainland w sw of miami

Watching radar loops, it appears that storms have begun to explode across South Florida and have now begun to fill in over the area. Prepare for some very heavy rainfall over several hours. This will be one nasty afternoon where you'll need to make indoor plans for all areas Tampa southward. FLWeatherFreak, that is not the warm front coming up into Tampa. The warm front can clearly be seen over the Florida Keys, moving norhtward into Southern Florida. You guys are just getting a moisture surge in correlation with the approaching warm front.

214. FLWeatherFreak91 1:21 PM EDT on March 22, 2008
Hurricane... great site, but the link for the tampa/ruskin radar is wrong. It links to the tallahassee radar instead.

Link fixed sorry about that scroll down you can always use the tampa radar from dupage.

Youre right about it taking one and that's why I find steering and tracks much more important than total number of named systems.

I will be back later. I'll be watching the radar.

220. Ivansrvivr 1:35 PM EDT on March 22, 2008
Youre right about it taking one and that's why I find steering and tracks much more important than total number of named systems.

I think total number does matter, in that the more storms there are "out there", the greater chance there is that one will hit you. So I prioritize (steering =1, count = 2) rather than not paying attention to count. For example, 1992 was terrible for Florida, but 2004 was worse.

I'm just hoping we don't get a "worst case scenario", with repeat intense storms over the same general area the way we did in '04. That wasn't much fun.

I've gotta go also. Back this evening.

Hope it doesn't rain here . . .

BAHA-HURRICANE-Amen to that.I am refering to that comment you made about 2004 Hurricane season.

entire west fla coast tampa s to keys fully engulfed with newest dev max dbz 59 collier south nice rains

I recall several years (the last two being perfect examples) that were above normal in numbers but the steering prevented US landfalls, i suppose if you wanted to get technical about it there was something of a Florida landfall in 06 but steering pushed the majors away. Steering was what made 04 a nightmare for Florida and the late 90's so bad for the Carolinas. Steering also kept Florida from being hit through the 80s until 99.

I forgot the 2 that hit Pensacola in 95. But that too was steering.

now we wait and see what it spins up to be
as it gets to the east
and the western sea

I'm back now.

There is now new convection developing farther out into the GOM on the western quadrant of the surface low. Widespread rain and storms have now overspread all Miami-Dade county with some quite impressive rainfall totals starting to accumulate. Only a matter of time before all this rain moves into my area and really gives us a much-needed soaking. Here are the latest satellite images.



Taking a look at the satellite imagery, could we daresay that there looks to be some tropical development taking place? The QuikSCAT I posted earlier had indicated a closed surface circulation with some 30kt+ winds. You can also see convection has begun building on the western portion. Something just seems unusual regarding this system. Looks more tropical to me than extratropical.

lets just watch cchs

The ares of low-level circ. is under 30 knt shear compared to 50 which lies to its east...I believe the low shows tropical characteristics although it's not going anywhere big...

Does this system have a warm core or cold core?

Is it all that surprising that the low would have some tropical characteristics? SSTs are marginal. There is warm tropical air being drawn in to the system. It is likely tropical at the surface, but not up top. Upper level winds are too strong for it to fully develop as a tropical system. We need a good tropical downpour over the entire peninsula.

Lets just call it Sub-tropical.

AMSU says neither warm core nor cold core.

It looks cold core to me...in any case if this was late May or June then this would have a better, significant shot at tropical genesis (as ocean temperatures would be warmer and shear would be reduced).

Cyclone Phase Diagrams from the UKMET model show a deep, asymmetric cold core.

that low in the cyclone phase diagram is future cyclone. Is that same as the one as in the Gulf?

The upper level overcast is overhead now. It doesn't have that "tropical" look to it. Looks more like a winter type system. Any tropical characteristics would likely be confined to the surface. If it were June or July, with calm upper level winds, It wouldn't take long for it to go tropical.

W456 - the UKMET initiates that storm 18 hours from now. It was the closest I could find since none of the other models have phase diagrams on the current system (NOGAPS and CMC initiate the low once it has emerged off of the east coast of Florida).

the convection on the western side of the low could be the formation of a cold front.

The NOGAPS and CMC are a bit late on this one.

Hey guys. It had gotten very dark here is West Palm Beach, but no rain, at least at my neighborhood, to speak of.

JFV, there's a flood advisory out for your county.

Link

if and i say if it would dev warning would have litle time if any at all at this point hunker down wait it out things can change in a blink of an eye

Seems like the NWS has changed their tune quite a bit in terms of possible severe weather and how strong the cold front will be once it passes through South Florida.
NWS Miami Forecast Discussion

Southeast Florida should prepare for some significant flooding as it appears the warm front has been moving much slower than anticipated. In addition, it appears the warm front and the GOM low will merge together later this evening and really enhance the rainfall and storms over the area. Surprisingly, still no rain here in Cooper City, although the skies have become terribly dark. Just heard the first rumble of thunder today while typing this. Radar imagery for South Florida is below.

Look at all that moisture! More than 1.5 inches of rain expected in some parts of South Florida.