Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Monitoring the Mississippi flood story, obviously...

NOLA-lol-yes monitoring the floods up north but we need rain where i live.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA ADVISORY NUMBER FIVE
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm 14R [994 hPa] located near 16.0S 59.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm was reported moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Near Gale-Force Winds in the southern semi-circle up to 90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds within the southeastern sector

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.6S 58.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 16.8S 57.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 55.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 54.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
====================
Environmental pressures remain low and the gradient is weak in the center of the circulation (so winds near the center are rather weak) The center is still estimated on the northeastern edge of the deep convection, undergoing a moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear on the southern edge of the tropical easterly jet. Winds according to 1717z METOP/ASCAT DATA are still very weak near the center. The MSLP is estimated at 994 hPa, referring to Saint Brandon Island SLP 995 hPa. At 2300z Gale-Force Winds, justifying the naming, exists only in the south, rather far from the center and under deep convection.

Environmental conditions are expected to improve under the upper level ridge for the next 12-24 hours. Some further development is expected as this system should track west-southwestwards then west-northwestwards on the northern edge of subtropical high pressures during the next few days. A wide and deep trough should attract the system southward after 72 hours.

The expose LLCC of 24P

I hope that low in the gulf of Mexico will stay in the gulf through the rest of tonight and into tomorrow morning and that the clouds dissipate here in Melbourne so that I can do my observation using FIT's new telescope. The weather is very unpredictable here and we need some clear nights to do some observations of transiting exoplanets around other stars which require high level of accuracy since the dip in the light curve of these stars are only a few percent max and any clouds will ruin the observation even with comparison stars and data reduction.

does anyone have a ENSO outlook for summer 2008? and what impact itwill possibly have on upcoming hurricane season?? also does nay have any early predictions on upcoming hurricane season activity? thanks for any replys... hank

Happy Easter Weekend to All. And those up late updating too.

does anyone have a ENSO outlook for summer 2008?


Technical ENSO Update
19 March 2008

> Current conditions
> Expected conditions
Link



Forecasting El Nino Link

Because El Nino has such a large effect of weather patterns, many wish to forecast its coming. Two approaches are used: Statistical Models and Dynamical Models. Both seem to be equally accurate (or inaccurate).

does anyone have a ENSO outlook for summer 2008? and what impact itwill possibly have on upcoming hurricane season??

Go here. They mention in that article that La Niña could weaken a bit (it is already weakening a little bit) during the season, which could potentially alter the steering currents and put the U.S. in danger. They even mention the possibility of neutral conditions for this season, which is even worse (especially if it is a cold bias neutral, which is likely if La Niña weakens into an ENSO neutral event). The strongest La Niña's tend to cause storms to track further south and west, like in 1988 and 2007.

also does nay have any early predictions on upcoming hurricane season activity? thanks for any replys... hank

I'll throw a prediction out there, even though this is not going to count as my true prediction for the season (that'll come May 31): 13/9/4

Also, something else interesting...

Yet another tropical cyclone could hit Madagascar:

LINK 97S

Western Australia has another invest to watch along with 96S that may creep back into the Central Indian Ocean region

Tropical Cyclone Potential
--------------------------
Sunday-Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MODERATE

RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 22MAR)
==========================
A well marked low pressure area formed over southeast Arabian Sea. It is likely to intensify further in association with the system convective clouds are seen over southeast Arabian Sea.

Convective clouds are also seen over parts of south pennisula of south Andaman Sea

my early season hurricane predictions

3 tropical storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes

1 us landfalling ts
0 us landfalling hurricane

this season is going to be a bust, arthur will come early in the season and everyone will freak out that this season will be monstrous like 2005 but it will turn out to be a record low season

ive had this prediction for 2008 since sept 2007, im not backing out of it now

Currently, the atmosphere itself is still very strongly in a La Nina state (at record levels accoring to one index), but that appears to be the only thing sustaining it right now, since warmer than normal water is already being upwelled (the surface water is normally warmer than the subsurface water, so even warmer than normal subsurface water can still cool the surface, but not as easily and it gets harder as the subsurface warms, which may eventually break down the atmsopheric circulation).

Are you saying that El Niño may develop? Or at least ENSO neutral conditions?

ive had this prediction for 2008 since sept 2007, im not backing out of it now

Look who just earned himself the ignore list. This is something I was hoping to avoid this year (heck, I'm even hoping to avoid the westcasters that want destruction, so don't feel bad), but alas, that's obviously too much to ask for.

Just watch what you say on here.

STL, looking at the subsurface anomalies in the Pacific, I won't be surprised if by the end of Hurricane Season 08 we are in a full fledged El Nino. Maybe a strong one not long after. As the warmer waters are upwelled, the summer sun will have a rapid warming effect on the Pacific. I know the Forecast models are still in the "neutral to Nina" area, but look at the Models 3 months ago, 2 months ago, & last month. There is a definite & consistent upward trend. Continue that trend another 2 months and your'e fairly well into El Nino territory by the end of the season. It will still take time for the effects of this La Nina to dissipate, and I doubt a total shift to El Nino will occur before late 08 Hurricane season but the writing is on the wall for an El Nino by 09. A weakening La Nina to Neutral pattern will make for a nasty season along the Eastern Seaboard.

I disagree with Altesic's forecast. While I dont get into numbers of named storms I believe it will be average to slightly above numberswise but the all important tracks(which is what really matters) I am tending to think will favor the Eastern Seaboard. Florida is not out of the woods but points north are the more likely candidates for a major landfall this year.

Heavy moisture lurking off shore.....

12hours GFS

24hours GFS

LOL...CMC tropical storm!

Is that CMC model picking up the extratropical low forming in the Gulf currently or is that something later on? (Not that I'd put much stock in the CMC just yet)

No, this is the fantasyland of the long-range CMC.

If these so-called models are based on previous weather,(which is what I understand them to be) how could it think there will be tropical activity anytime in the next 3 months? Even the CMC shouldn't be doing that now. That usually starts about May.

LOL...CMC tropical storm!

Morning eaglesrock.

I see that CMC is already beginning to over develop storms LOL. The chances of that occuring are just about as likely as the tropical system the GFS wants to develop out 384 hours near Cape Verde.

Wow, didn't notice that the GFS had one already...maybe tropical season is upon us! LOL!!!!

i'll be the first to say it dont pay attention to cmc its on crack

Morning all.

Be aware; there is a high probability that either the models have ingested some hallucinagenic substance, or the model users have . . .

LOL

I'm just hoping the low in the Gulf goes far enough north of us to keep the day fairly sunny in the north central Bahamas.

Looks like Tampa area and points south are going to get slammed later this morning . ..

The Mid-Atlantic will get slammed with severe weather and 60-80 degree temps next weekend if the DGEX model is right. Just look at those high humidities moving in at 700 and 850 mb, and those temps!

You mean that little thing? LOL! It looks quite wet just looking at the long-range radar out of Tampa. The echo intenseity will only increase as the rain gets closer to the radar base, allowing it to be picked up better.

Link

Don't have be big to sucker-punch. . .

It looks like that storm blew up quite fast!

Link

Its a Short Wave in the GOM,nothing more.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008


.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAYED WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG BRANCH OF THE JET TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MAIN AXIS OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVE IS NOW
STREAMING WITHIN THE FLOW AND BISECTS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

GOM IR Loop of the Shear ..and the Poofiness.

IR Loop Link

GOM Low Cloud Product ..Link

Don't have be big to sucker-punch. . .

Exactly...the latest Weatherwise magazine has an article about the little clipper that dropped a foot of snow in NE PA.

as per high def level 2 radar some heavy storms dev over keys sw of fla mainland

looks to be rain southern half of tampa south

Tops to 43K noted



NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Echo Tops Range 124 NMI Link

Cassini Spacecraft Finds Ocean May Exist Beneath Titan's Crust
Story: Link

Tampa? we have 2 seabreeze fronts setting up on the east coast. With the sun shining bright, and the dynamics of the warm front, low in Gulf, there will be some nasty storms here very shortly. Likely popping up long before the west coast activity arrives.

Hopefully quite a bit of the "punch" will fall into the Okeechobee bowl . . .

U.S. Coastal Waters Forecasts by Zone - South - Key West, FL
Coastal Marine Zone Forecasts by the Key West, FL Forecast OfficeLink

Between the precip already falling in Tampa and the skies here on the East Coast(photos on my blog), Lake O will get some good rains.

PSU Electronic E-Wall. Link

dbz running between 51 56 and increasing heavy showers with some thunder over and n of keys with building precip west of west coast precip totals for south fla running between 20 to 30 mm with up to 50 mm in storms

Look for it to fill in rapidly over the southern half of the Peninsula. Skies are darkening quickly here.

16 frame GOM IR loop, PSU Link

Good morning all. Looks like we have a very nice setup for some much needed rainfall in Central and Southern Florida. I'm feeling quite a moisture surge moving northward here. Watching the satellite and radar imagery, I believe you are correct Ivansrvivr. This will be a very unsettled afternoon.

Ivansrvivr-Do you expect any severe weather asociated with that small low in the gulf when it moves across the state?

hey pat heres a good site updates sats every 10 min updates radar every 4 to 6 mins
weatherTAP.com sign up for free trial or become a member for 6.95 a month
it has high def level 2 radar with lots of sat enhancements

All I have to do is look out the window. There will be showers and thunderstorms developing over Eastern Palm Beach Co anytime now.

The main severe weather threats for Southern and Central Florida will be possible localized flooding, small hail, and dangerous lightning. I don't see these storms producing very strong winds or even tornadoes, although it can't be ruled out.