Treating scientists as bags of mostly water
During the holiday season, it's natural to ask philosophical questions such as, "what is the essence of being human?" Well, one way to answer that question is purely scientifically. Humans are mostly water (ugly bags of mostly water, according to Microbrain, Stardate 41463.9, Star Trek: The Next Generation,, Episode 17). More than half the human body is made up of water, and we can use that fact to measure how many humans are present at large gatherings. Such an experiment was performed at the 2006 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, as reported in a November 2007 paper by Darin Desilets et al. of the University of Arizona. The experiment made use of the fact that cosmic rays are continually bombarding the earth, creating fast neutrons as a by-product of nuclear disintegrations. When these neutrons encounter large concentrations of hydrogen (such as found in ugly bags of mostly water), they get scattered. One can look at the resulting scattering pattern and deduce how much hydrogen is present, and make an estimation of the number of people present.
Figure 1. Ugly bag of mostly water (and co-founder of the Weather Underground) Perry Samson (right) poses in front of his Poster at the 2007 AGU meeting. Also pictured: Russ Rew and Mohan Ramamurthy of Unidata. Fast cosmic ray neutrons scattered from their bodies were used to help estimate the number of people present at the 2006 meeting.
The equipment needed to do so costs about $10,000, and was set up in the Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco during the 2006 AGU meeting. The scientists were able to show when lunch breaks occurred by pointing out a sharp reduction in neutron scattering when all the scientists filed out to grab a bite to eat. Desilets et al. estimated about 1,700 scientists were present in the Exhibit Hall of the convention center during the height of the conference, which is probably a reasonable estimate, given the stated capacity of 3575 people. The technique can also be used to perform measurements of water content of snow and soil, and Desilets et al. advertise that they are open to paid invitations to count crowds at Rio de Janerio's Carnival, Pamplona's running of the bulls, and the next World Cup Finals.
Happy New Year, everyone! I'll be back with a new blog on January 2.
Jeff Masters
References
Desliets, D., M. Zreda, T. Ferre, 2007, Scientist Water Equivalent Measured With Cosmic Rays at 2006 AGU Fall Meeting, EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, VOL. 88, NO. 48, PAGE 521, 2007.
Reader Comments
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QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS
THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN OCCLUDED LOW.
26.4n/38.3w 90l
26.1n/38.5w
25.9n/38.8w td/
26.1n/39.2w
...stop...
==========================================
As of 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [974 hPa] is located near 17.0S 117.9E or 375 kms north-northwest of Port Hedland and 430 kms north-northeast of Karratha, Australia has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The cyclone is moving south at 6 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 70 knots by 1800 UTC 29December.
Hurricane-Force winds within 20 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 29 December with very high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell.
Storm-Force Winds within 45 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Gale-Force Winds within 90 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warnings
=====================
A CYCLONE WARNING remains in effect for coastal areas from Mardie to Wallal including Port Hedland and Karratha Dampier.
A CYCLONE WATCH remains in effect for remaining coastal parts between Broome and Coral Bay, extending inland to include Nanutarra and Marble Bar.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (29Dec)
================================
There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region, however an active monsoon trough lies near 10S. A low may form along the trough between 90-100E in the next 48 hours and could develop early next with with a chance of tropical cyclone formation.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
===================================
SUNDAY: LOW
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MODERATE
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (29December)
===========================================
An active monsoon trough lies across the northern Top End with a developing low near Jabiru. The low is expected to move east overnight, reaching the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday morning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
===================================
Sunday-Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
0830 UTC DEC 29 2007
Pattern: Well define CDO and banding. Curved band arc 1.10
Current Intensity: CI 3.5/55/994
Adjustments: None
Final Estimate: CI 3.5
Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007 - CI 1.5
1230 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
2200 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
1157 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.5
2030 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.8
0000 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 2.0
1000 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 3.0
2030 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 3.7
1030 UTC DEC 29 2007 - CI 3.5
Any idea why the subtropical low in the eastern Atlantic is not an invest?
Puzzles me..the NHC says Invest but nothing on the Navy site as yet
Also notice the small radius of gale force winds (circles). Occluded cyclones have broad areas of gale force winds, hence their non-tropical nature. Subtropical and Tropical Cyclones have a smaller radius of gale force winds near the center, with the former greater than the latter.
"...second image is temperature brightness in channel 8 or 100 mb or 14.1 km in the troposphere."
350 CatastrophicDL "456 why isn't Antarctica blue like the Arctic?"
The Arctic is in deep winter: 24hours of darkness, no solar heating.
The Antarctic is in high summer: 24hours of sunlight, maximum solar heating.
Edit in:
350 CatastrophicDL "456 why isn't Antarctica blue like the Arctic?"
360 Weather456 "I think it has to do with the seasons (winter up north; summer down south). I would have to look at an image taken in July to verify that."
Obviously I shoulda read the next page more carefully during my initial scan-thru.
I agree with this comment... But I think convection is better organized than before. Even, if you look at the wind shear fields of CIMMS, you could find that the low is located close to a region with "only" 10KT of wind shear. This value is lower than yesterday, when the low was located under 20 KT of wind shear.
In this way, I was sure the system will not start a tropical transition yesterday. But, today... I'm not sure. Perhaps, sea surface temperatures at this area could be the determining factor for tropical transition.
Any way, this is a very interesting issue for a 29th December!
See you again!
Caza,
the loop above agrees with your comment. More consolidation of convection indicating wind shear has relax somewhat.
Convection is trying to surround the center of the vortex. Visual appearance is close to a subtropical depression, at least... I know it is very dangerous to say this from only a satelital image, but I think there are lot of similarities with a subtropical depression...
Look at the uniform surface temperatures
I think its safe...cuz satellite imagery is only one of many data which suggest subtropical. Just look back at my posts.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST SAT DEC 29 2007
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE POLAR VORTEX OVER
SIBERIA WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP...COLD AND PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AN "ADJUSTMENT" WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET OR SO. 06Z GFS HAS A BOMB 496DM UPPER LOW OFF THE WESTERN
CANADA COAST BY FRIDAY...BUT THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS DEEPER WITH THIS
YESTERDAY...HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS. BOTH MODELS IMPLY A PERIOD
OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVE INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY IT APPEARS SNOW LEVELS WITH THESE SYSTEMS
WILL REMAIN BELOW DONNER SUMMIT MUCH OF THE TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. SG
hi 456 look at this 456
Taz, thank you so much.....A bomb...
I planned the trip to Cancun in January because this not suppose to happen.
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