Treating scientists as bags of mostly water
During the holiday season, it's natural to ask philosophical questions such as, "what is the essence of being human?" Well, one way to answer that question is purely scientifically. Humans are mostly water (ugly bags of mostly water, according to Microbrain, Stardate 41463.9, Star Trek: The Next Generation,, Episode 17). More than half the human body is made up of water, and we can use that fact to measure how many humans are present at large gatherings. Such an experiment was performed at the 2006 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, as reported in a November 2007 paper by Darin Desilets et al. of the University of Arizona. The experiment made use of the fact that cosmic rays are continually bombarding the earth, creating fast neutrons as a by-product of nuclear disintegrations. When these neutrons encounter large concentrations of hydrogen (such as found in ugly bags of mostly water), they get scattered. One can look at the resulting scattering pattern and deduce how much hydrogen is present, and make an estimation of the number of people present.
Figure 1. Ugly bag of mostly water (and co-founder of the Weather Underground) Perry Samson (right) poses in front of his Poster at the 2007 AGU meeting. Also pictured: Russ Rew and Mohan Ramamurthy of Unidata. Fast cosmic ray neutrons scattered from their bodies were used to help estimate the number of people present at the 2006 meeting.
The equipment needed to do so costs about $10,000, and was set up in the Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco during the 2006 AGU meeting. The scientists were able to show when lunch breaks occurred by pointing out a sharp reduction in neutron scattering when all the scientists filed out to grab a bite to eat. Desilets et al. estimated about 1,700 scientists were present in the Exhibit Hall of the convention center during the height of the conference, which is probably a reasonable estimate, given the stated capacity of 3575 people. The technique can also be used to perform measurements of water content of snow and soil, and Desilets et al. advertise that they are open to paid invitations to count crowds at Rio de Janerio's Carnival, Pamplona's running of the bulls, and the next World Cup Finals.
Happy New Year, everyone! I'll be back with a new blog on January 2.
Jeff Masters
References
Desliets, D., M. Zreda, T. Ferre, 2007, Scientist Water Equivalent Measured With Cosmic Rays at 2006 AGU Fall Meeting, EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, VOL. 88, NO. 48, PAGE 521, 2007.
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Scientist Water Equivalent
Measured With Cosmic Rays
at 2006 AGU Fall Meeting
A 1013 stationary non-tropical low pressure area centered in the Eastern Atlantic near 27N/39W. Forecast models and surface observations continue to show possibility of subtropical transition by this low as it continues to be blocked south of the bridging Azores High pressure System. Satellite imagery also resemble subtropical storm models with most of the convection in the Eastern and Northwest quadrants. The system continues to be embedded within an upper trough but latest observations show this pattern maybe waning. The low has a small chance of becoming fully subtropical much less tropical as a front pulls in from the Northwest. However, there are some difficulties in forecasting this storm. The front may not interact with the system at all. Also a 500 mb trough and low accompanies the low. This set up is similar to subtropical storms in the Eastern-Central Pacific Ocean, called Kona Lows. This is indeed an interesting storm. Winds with this system are estimated to be 20-30 knots. QuikSCAT is currently processing the area and there are few nearby observations.
by W456
Tropical Disturbance Summary 2100z 27Dec
========================================
Tropical Disturbance 06F [1010 hPa] located near 20.5S 162.0W as of 2000 UTC. Poor based on Multispectral visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea Surface Temperatures is about 25-26C. The system is slowly moving into cooler waters ans is weakening as it does. Low level circulation center remains exposed with most convective activity still in the southern quadrant. The upper level cyclonic circulation associated with the disturbance remains embedded in a mid to upper level trough in an area of low to moderate shear.
Most global models continue to analyse a surface trough over the area. This is also evident in the latest quikscat pass. The potential of this system to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains LOW.
-------------------------------------------
Japan Meteorological Agency
LOW PRESSURE AREA 98W
7.0N 113.0E - 15-20 knots 1004 hPa
moving slowly westward
105. MichaelSTL 1:04 PM EST on December 21, 2007
I don't really find that swirl interesting, especially to call it "Pablo"; shear may be lower than average in that area, but it is certainly not favorable. And if the NHC ever did name that, it would just provide more fodder for the people who say that half of this year's storms didn't deserve to be named, even the ones that affected land and killed people (even if indirectly, as is the case a lot of the time).
;)
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....
A broad upper ridge centered over the Caribbean is producing southwesterly flow over the region with mid-upper level cloudiness advected from the Eastern Pacific across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico to the Big Ben Area of Florida. Surface high pressure and dry air dominates elsewhere with fair to partly cloudy skies. Fog and low clouds blankets the Southern Mississippi Valley and much of Northern Texas below this dry air regime.
Multilayer cloudiness is over much of the Western Atlantic due to wind shear within the atmosphere. Surface high pressure is advecting patches of shallow cloudiness in easterly-southeasterly flow below high level clouds advected in westerly flow around the upper ridge over the Caribbean.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....
A typical winter weather pattern continues over the Caribbean with easterly flow dominating the area south of the subtropical ridge. The easterly flow continues advect their typical patches of shallow moisture across the Islands, Greater Antilles and Central America north of 15N, with very dry air above in the mid-upper levels as indicated by upper air observations out of Kingston, Jamaica and St. Maarten. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located south of 15N between 77W and 83W. This area lies in an upper outflow environment.
by W456
Upper Air Observation (Time Series) from Kingston, Jamaica. Dry air is indicated in the red shades and moisture is indicated in green shades. Usually this would be an unstable situation but somewhere in the atmosphere there is either a temperature inversion, subsidence inversion or no lifting mechanism.
TROUGHING
CONTROLS THE PATTERN BETWEEN 30W AND ABOUT 50W...STRETCHING
FARTHER W IN THE TROPICS...DUE TO A VERTICALLY STACKED NEARLY
STATIONARY 1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N38W. SFC TROUGHS EXTEND
BOTH S AND NE OF LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST
ORGANIZED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND N OF THE LOW CENTER
GENERALLY FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 32W-39W. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AS IT GETS CUT
OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE FAR E ATLC...LIKE THE W
ATLC...IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS HERE MAINLY
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE AND THE CANARY ISLANDS...FROM 16N-27N E
OF 25W...DUE TO AN UPPER JET STREAKING ACROSS THE AREA.
Yess...but I would not say totally different. That current system still owes some of its genesis to that so called "Pab-Low".
"Pablo" as jokingly named is still out there. Seems to be losing it's punch. Very interesting system and track though.
Link to Sat Image
December 22 2007
Was that system that crossed the florida panhandle a little hybrid in nature?
5. Bonedog 9:20 AM EST on December 21, 2007
It's got quite a spin to it.
Has a really nicely defined core it seems.
possiblity
13. HIEXPRESS 10:08 AM EST on December 21, 2007
Let's NAME IT. LOL
15. Bonedog 10:11 AM EST on December 21, 2007
sub-tropical hybrid storm Pablo
LOL :)
Link
Here's a next example of an excellent curve band pattern with 98S but with visible imagery. What is the extent of the cloud arc?
looks like 2007 doesnt want to stop
=P
In 2003, TS Odette formed in the Caribbean and struck land. TS Olga formed in or in the vicinity of the Caribbean and also struck land. Funny thing is, they both struck Hispanola.
Also in 2003, TS Peter formed out in the eastern Subtropical Atlantic, this is also the location of the current low.
Also, the O and the P name was used after the season's end in 2003, which would be the case here if Pablo was to form.
And, both 2003 and 2007 had preseason storms (Ana and Andrea respectively)
Remember you have to fit the storm along a 10 degree long spiral.
Notice the curve band forms a semi-circle around the CSC
a semi-circle is half or 50% or 0.5
Now 0.5 would give it a reasonable CI 2.0 as oppose to CI 3.0 for a 0.60 arc. You agree?
The trade winds in the West Pacific and near the dateline have really picked up lately, with anomalies in excess of 12 m/s between 160E and the dateline:
Cause: Increase mid-latitude activity
Effect: Increase inflow for the monsoon trough TC Genesis
0000 UTC DEC 28 2007
Pattern: Thick and intense curve band increased to near 0.50 arc.
Current Intensity: CI 2.0
Adjustments: None
Final Estimate: CI 2.0
Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007 - CI 1.5
1230 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
2200 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
1157 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.5
2030 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.8
0000 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 2.0
==========================================
As of 0:00 AM UTC, A Tropical Low [990 hPa] is located near 14.0S 117.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots and is moving south-southeast at 5 knots.
The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12-24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots 1200 UTC 28December, further increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 29December.
Forecast and Intensity
====================
1200z - 15.1S 117.8E 35 knots (CAT 1)
0000z - 15.9S 117.8E 50 knots (CAT 2)
I also now know, many factories are now moving from the US and Europe to go to China as they have discover its now cheaper to produce in China. Its cheaper cause they use cheaper fuel (inputs) hence "dirty coal".
Speaking from direct family experience, China, in no way, concerns itself with 'clean' air. Regardless of their protestations.
My sister, who is spending three years in Hong Kong where her husband is working for the Disney corporation at Hong Kong Disney, came home to Orlando for Christmas. While here, she visited her family physician for her annual check-up. Doctor noticed 'enviornmentally induced asthema' and prescribed an inhaler. She was surprised and yet not surprised. Seems that the air was always a white hazy sort of thing that just about never went away. No, she never had the problem while living in Orlando for over 45 years.
Just goes to show, don't follow the rules and things are cheaper to make.
What we need to do is construct a computer chip that converts, economically, CO2 to carbon and oxygen. They can use the carbon to make carbon-fiber building material and release the oxygen back into the atmosphere. Use photovoltaic energy and the system is self-contained.
Problem solved.
Paul Graham, Wednesday December 26, 2007 - 20:20 EDT
Perth has had its hottest December day on record, according to weatherzone.com.au. The city baked under sunny skies and scorching northerlies that lifted the mercury to 43.7 degrees shortly before 2pm. It was the second day in a row above 40 degrees and the warmest two day period for December. A weak sea breeze struggled to provide relief, only managing to bring the temperature back to the 40 degree mark by 4pm.
Cooler, southwesterly winds will provide relief from the extreme heat on Thursday. The city is expected to reach 33 degrees, but the onshore winds will mean higher humidity levels creating sticky conditions. Over the next week, temperatures will begin to rise as winds tend around to the north once more. Next Wednesday could see Perth reaching 39 degrees.
- Weatherzone
© Weatherzone 2007
Tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or overnight. Gales are not expected on the coast within 48 hours.
Details:
Time (WDT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 am December 28 tropical low 13.4S 117.6E 140
6hr 9 am December 28 tropical low 13.6S 117.7E 150
12hr 3 pm December 28 tropical low 13.9S 117.8E 150
18hr 9 pm December 28 Cat1 14.1S 117.9E 165
24hr 3 am December 29 Cat1 14.4S 118.0E 165
36hr 3 pm December 29 Cat1 15.0S 117.8E 185
48hr 3 am December 30 Cat2 15.7S 117.3E 220
Article from: The Australian
By Kevin Meade and Lauren Wilson
December 28, 2007 12:05am
HOLIDAYMAKERS and residents along the Queensland coast are bracing for a fierce and volatile weather system this weekend with the bureau warning of gale-force winds, dangerous surf and abnormally high tides.
The Bureau of Meteorology has advised coastal communities from Bowen in north Queensland to the Gold Coast to prepare for the intense low-pressure system.
Severe weather forecaster Jeff Callaghan said the system was unlikely to develop into a cyclone. "It's a different sort of beast," Mr Callaghan said.
"It's more like a Sydney-to-Hobart yacht race storm. That's not to downplay it. This kind of system can be really ferocious."
Severe thunderstorms hit NSW yesterday afternoon, with heavy rains and flash flooding in the Hunter and Central Tablelands, Illawarra and western parts of Sydney.
Ballina recorded 25mm of rain and hail began falling in Lithgow and Katoomba at about 1pm, a bureau spokesperson said. The sky blackened above the drought-parched earth outside of Dubbo, in central NSW, late yesterday afternoon as a welcome thunderstorm rolled in from Wellington, bringing heavy downpours, winds and a spectacular lightning display.
Brian Harvey, a Dubbo local travelling along the Mitchell Highway to visit his father, pulled over to marvel at the sky as the storm moved in towards the city.
"It's very welcome rain indeed. The farmers will be very much relieved, it's been a good year or two since we've had rainfalls like this and now there'll be considerable subsoil moisture for the crops," he said.
Property owners in northwest NSW are also bracing for havoc this weekend, with slow-moving floodwaters and stormy weather expected to hit Nyngan and other areas along Bogan River.
Three people were rescued yesterday after they abandoned their 10m yacht in heavy seas north of Fraser Island. The Energex Rescue Helicopter picked up the trio, two men and a woman, who abandoned the yacht after its mainsail was ripped by fierce winds and its motor failed.
They were taken to Hervey Bay Hospital, but were all in good health.
The system threatening the Queensland coast was forecast to be about 500km northeast of Yeppoon this morning and moving southeast.
Huge waves whipped up by the system will coincide with king tides and are likely to cause the biggest tides this year.
Mr Callaghan said holidaymakers most at risk would be the thousands of people camping on Fraser Island.
It was unclear whether the system would bring heavy rain to parched southeast Queensland, which is still suffering from severe drought despite the recent heavy rain and flooding in the state's west and in western NSW. The combined level of the three dams supplying Brisbane has fallen below 20 per cent for the first time since April.
"Because this kind of system is so unpredictable, it's difficult to say how much rain it will bring," Mr Callaghan said.
"It will have to move west (towards the coast) to bring any significant rain, but while some computer models say it will move west by Sunday, others say it will move east."
The bureau is also closely watching a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Mr Callaghan said this system had the potential to develop into a cyclone early next week.
Meanwhile, South Australian fire fighters are on standby over the coming days with the bureau forecasting extreme heatwave conditions throughout the state.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Abnormally High Tides/Dangerous Surf and damaging winds developing Sunday
For people in Offshore Islands south of Rockhampton including The Capricorn and
Bunker Groups, Fraser Island and the Sunshine and Gold Coasts.
Issued at 12:50 pm on Friday 28 December 2007
Synoptic Situation: A tropical low with a central pressure of 1002hPa is
developing in the Coral Sea and is located 270 km northeast of Gladstone. The
low is expected to intensify and move towards the southeast to be located about
600km east southeast of Gladstone at 9pm tonight. The low is then expected to
continue to intensify on Saturday and become slow moving and is likely to move
back towards Fraser Island during Sunday.
Very large waves are expected to be generated by this system and will affect
areas north from Fraser Island and the Sunshine Coast on Saturday and extend
down to Coolangatta Tweed Heads by Sunday. Gale force winds and waves will cause
abnormally high tides which should exceed the highest tides of the year with
some waves likely to extend up above the beach zone particularly on the east
coast of Fraser Island on Sunday. Winds are expected to increase during Sunday
when wind gusts may reach 90 km/hour in exposed coastal areas between Sandy Cape
and Cape Moreton.
The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should, if
near the coastline, stay well away from the water's edge.
The next warning is due to be issued by 5pm today,.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (28December)
================================
(1) Central South Indian Ocean
There are no significant tropical low currently in the region. However, an active monsoon trough lies near 10S. A low is expected to form along the trough between 90-100E in the next 24 hours and develop over the weekend with an increasing chance of tropical cyclone formation.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
====================================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: HIGH
Monday: HIGH
(2) Southeast Indian Ocean
TROPICAL LOW
14.1S 117.7E - 30 knots 994 hPa (5:30 UTC update)
--------------------------------------------
Brisbane Bureau of Meteorology - Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (28December)
===============================
A low pressure system has developed over the western Coral Sea near 22.0S 153.0E. Although this system is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next three days, it is however expected to intensify into a deep extra-tropical low overnight into Saturday as it moves southeast off the coast of Queensland.
Elsewhere, the monsoon trough is developing over Cape York Peninsula, but there are no significant tropical disturbances at present.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
=================================
Saturday-Monday: low
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