Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Regional Specialized Meteorological Service
Nadi, Fiji
Gale Warning Number One
130 UTC 05December
=========================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [997 HPA]
11.9S 178.2E
Position Poor
Moving Westward at 15 knots

Remarks:
Clockwise winds may increase to 35 knots within 60 to 90 miles from the center in the next six to twelve hours.

night stormw

Could affect the nation of Fiji down the road.

Looks like this 04F might be the first of the TD's so far in the south pacific season with some potential

Well thats fairly impressive, the gale warning shows a 3mb drop in pressure since the tropical disturbance statement was issued about 3-4 hrs ago.

Veti Leva - one of the islands that make up the nation of Fiji, a beautiful tropical island.

Oh and as STL pointed out earlier, the extratropical system that effected the Northwest US seems to have originated from one of the tropical depressions that formed in the wpac about 1 and a half weeks ago

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:06:38 S Lon : 178:36:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -33.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.9C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 12:18:36 S Lon: 178:23:59 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1
=============================
At 0:00 am UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five had 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west at 10 knots.

05P is expected to be 200 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji Island in 48 hours.

Significant wave height associated with 05P is 8 feet. The next tropical cyclone warning is later today at 1500 UTC.

Wow what an amazing and yet devastating update in the PAC Coast! Dr.M your pictures rival 456's. Great job and great work on everyone updating his blogs.

anyone knows what happened to GOES...all images end at 1645 UTC

If possible, avoid Seattle-Portland highway travel until floods recede. Rivers and streams continue to rise and additional highway and mountain pass closures are expected. If you must go, stay on the interstates. Note that the interstate detour route is 440 miles, takes at least seven hours during good weather and traffic conditions and is vulnerable to winter closures near Snoqualmie Pass.

Talk about getting sidetracked take almost a day just on a detour!

Large Storm Pounds the Canadian Maritimes

Highest Gusts Today
Buoy 44150 - 50 Knots
Buoy 44139 - 47 Knots
Buoy 44138 - 43 Knots
Buoy 44141 - 41 Knots
SABLE, Canada (WSA) - 48 Knots
BACCARO POINT, Canada (WCP) - 51 Knots

lost track of the time...later

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04F DAMAN [CAT 1]
12.1ºS 177.7ºE - 35 knots 995 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Daman [995 hPa] centered at 12.1S 177.7E as of 0200 UTC. Cyclone is intensifying with expected sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots close to the center increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect Gale Winds within 90 miles of the center in the eastern semi-circle.

Forecast position
=====================
near 12.9S 175.5E at 1400 UTC [05 Dec]
near 14.2S 174.3E at 0200 UTC [06 Dec]

we didn't get as much from it on the Mendocino coast of California, but were pounded by some of the winds and rains yesterday. *whew* Am glad it's over. . .!!

Feather

Yo guys. Did you catch that dis kine storm is called a "Pineapple Express." Temp went from 28 on Saturday to 58 Monday. That tail you see and mention is typical when one of these events happens. The Columbus Day Storm I mentioned yesterday formed from remnants of a typhoon. "Pineapple Express" is a regular pattern for Pac NW, though usually not so severe.

Hi Barefoot!
Wow, was this ever a Pineapple Express!! Hope things settle down in the Northwest for a while...this flooding is bad enough. Winds were incredible on parts of the OR coast. We've been out to Cape Meares...wouldn't want to be there with 114 mph gusts!!

A pair of storms that slammed into the Pacific Northwest had much of the region under water Tuesday, leaving five people dead, thousands without power and major highways shut down
Well done article... They got slammed.


Big wave surfer dies at famed Ghost Trees surf spot
By RON HARRIS

SAN FRANCISCO

A big wave rider died Tuesday at the unforgiving surf break known as Ghost Trees, a Monterey County spot known for its fast-moving 20-foot and better waves.

Peter Davi, 45, of Monterey, lost his surfboard and was attempting to swim to shore, but never made it, witnesses told authorities. Friends of Davi lost sight of him and later found him floating in the water unconscious.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1205/p02s01-usgn.html


New report ranks U.S. teens 29th in science worldwide

"What once was the gold standard [for international education] is now not even at the OECD average, which shows you how much the world has changed," says Andreas Schleicher, who helped write the report. The US is average in the number of students at the highest levels of scientific literacy, but has a much larger pool – nearly 1 in 4 – at the bottom, Mr. Schleicher notes. "We have stand-alone studies that suggest these kids have grim prospects in the labor market," he says.

RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04F DAMAN [CAT 1]
12.3ºS 177.2ºE - 40 knots 990 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Daman [990 hPa] reported centered at 12.3S 177.2E as of 0600 UTC. Cyclone is intensifying with expected sustained winds of 40 knots close to the center increasing to 50 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect Gale Winds within 90 miles of the center in the eastern semi-circle.

Low Level Circulation Center just northeast of Rotuma. Overall organization good. Convective tops cooling over central feature. Outflow good to north and south. Dvorak Based on 0.7 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, yielding a Dvorak Intensity of 3.0. PAT agree but MET remains at 2.5, thus T3.0/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS.

System lies just south of a 250 hPa outflow axis downstream of an approaching short wave upper trough. Cyclone Daman is being steered west-southwest by a mid level ridge to the southeast. It is expected to gradually turn southward and last southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Global models agree on this track projection with some intensification

Forecast position and Intensity
=====================
13.1S 175.3E 45 kts
14.6S 174.8E 50 kts

Special Weather Bulletin for Rotuma
====================================
Expect winds over Rotuma to be damaging gale force with average wind speeds to 40 knots and momentary gusts to 55 knots. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Sea flooding of low lying coastal area expected.

Gale Warning remains in force for Rotuma

The following information is provided especially for the mariner: Expect damaging gale force winds within 90 miles of center. Very Rough to high Seas with damaging heavy swells are likely.

Morning Folks

Mornin', Mr.Bone.
There is plenty Pacific weather going on recently, with grief and hardship in the Maritimes apparently. Not nice.
The good news is, that there is a load of moisture in the Atlantic, heading my way, and we could use some of that rain here.
With luck, it will fill my new 1000 gal. watertank that I put up last week, before the dryseason arrives, " officialy ". Its been a dry wet season.

pottery I hope you get the rain thats needed. I know for you folks in the islands most if not all of you reley on that water tank so any moisture would be a big help.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.

NEwxguy are you anywhere around that tanker explosion?? If you are I hope your safe!!!

Thanks, Bone.
BBL to see whats going on. You have a good one today...

Daman looking impressive

Possible eye feature

I would like to know if anyone else is having the same problem with GOES-12/GOES-EAST Images not updating.

yea weather nothing since dec 4 16:45z

ok..thanks

CDO Pattern taking shape

Subject: GOES-12 North-South Station Keeping maneuver (EXTENDED) UPDATE 1230
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------060302090207030708060409
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Details of the Outage:
*

A GOES-12 North-South Station Keeping maneuver will be performed on
Tuesday, December 4, 2007 at 1756 UTC.

*From 1715 UTC through 1944 UTC -- No GOES-12 Imaging or Soundings*

*EXTENDED: 12/4/2007, 1941 UTC, 2:41 PM, EST: *The SOCC supervisor
called ESPC
and said the GOES-12 maneuver will be extended until further notice
because they are having
problems coming out of the maneuver.

*UPDATE: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still ongoing, we are not receiving
GOES-12 (EAST) data until further notice. We are taking in FULL DISK
images on GOES-11 (WEST) until the problem is resolved.

NOTE: Low Cloud Base Data to AWIPS is unrelated to the GOES-12 Anomaly.
Work is being done to resolve the problem as soon as possible.

UPDATE: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still ongoing. Problem is still being
investigated.

*****_UPDATE J-DATE 339 1230 UTC_: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still
ongoing, we are not receiving GOES-12 (EAST) data until further
notice. NOAA is looking into using GOES-10 for GOES-12(EAST)
operations.****
*
*
**Data Affected by the Outage:

*GOES-12 (East) Imaging and Soundings data

*Date and Time of the Outage:
*
12/4/2007, 1715 UTC, 12:15 PM, EST

*Length of the Outage:
*
Until further notice

thats great. they loose GOES-12. Well at least its not hurricane season

Bone, I think they planned it that way...seems I read something early in the season about the need for an "On-Station Correction"...

gotcha Flood. Just funny that they can not pull it out of the manuver. Just like yesterday when almost every NEXRAD station went down at 15Z then came back a few minutes later.

CDO Pattern CI number = Central Feature plus Banding Feature

Central Feature = about 1 degree latitude - CF 2.5

Banding Feature = BF 1.0

CI = 2.5 plus 1.0 = 3.5

3.5 corresponds to 55 Knots/984 mb

That's eerie and some small cause for concern; NEXRAD shouldn't have problems like that. Makes me wonder what was going on (being an old IT guy with a bent towards Information Security it's a troubling event to me)

Look at this:

Gm all,no Bone,the city of everett is a bout 10 miles away,thankfully it looks like no serious injuries,but that must have been scary for the local neighborhood,people were running from flaming rivers of gasoline.

Southern facing coasts of Hawaii

Today
Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Large short period wind waves.
Winds: W 21 to 28 knots
Seas: W 14 feet at 9 sec.

2Morrow
Windy conditions with choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Large long period swell.
Winds: WSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: NNW 13 feet at 14 sec.

New Blog

Glad to hear NE

quiet here today

are the models still holding on to that storm for the 16th

Old blog rules!

old blog